Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

SOUTH YORKSHIRE

Seats: 14
Current Political Makeup: Lab 13, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 13, LibDem 1

1. Barnsley Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6388 (17.3%)
Labour: 17487 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6394 (17.3%)
BNP: 3307 (8.9%)
UKIP: 1727 (4.7%)
Independent: 732 (2%)
Others: 966 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 11093 (30%)

Sitting MP: Dan Jarvis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

2. Barnsley East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6329 (16.5%)
Labour: 18059 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6969 (18.2%)
BNP: 3301 (8.6%)
UKIP: 1731 (4.5%)
Independent: 712 (1.9%)
Others: 1285 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 11090 (28.9%)

Sitting MP: Michael Dugher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Don Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12877 (29.7%)
Labour: 16472 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 7422 (17.1%)
BNP: 2112 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1904 (4.4%)
English Dem: 1756 (4%)
Independent: 877 (2%)
MAJORITY: 3595 (8.3%)

Sitting MP: Caroline Flint (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority

Not a safe seat, but will be after May, as the LibDem vote splinters to Labour.

4. Doncaster Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10340 (24.8%)
Labour: 16569 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 8795 (21.1%)
BNP: 1762 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1421 (3.4%)
English Dem: 1816 (4.4%)
Independent: 970 (2.3%)
Others: 72 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6229 (14.9%)

Sitting MP: Rosie Winterton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

5. Doncaster North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8728 (21%)
Labour: 19637 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6174 (14.9%)
BNP: 2818 (6.8%)
UKIP: 1797 (4.3%)
English Dem: 2148 (5.2%)
TUSC: 181 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10909 (26.3%)

Sitting MP: Ed Miliband (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. Penistone & Stocksbridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14516 (31.2%)
Labour: 17565 (37.8%)
Lib Dem: 9800 (21.1%)
BNP: 2207 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1936 (4.2%)
English Dem: 492 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 3049 (6.6%)

Sitting MP: Angela Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Not a safe seat, but again, the Labour majority is likely to increase.

7. Rother Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13281 (28.4%)
Labour: 19147 (40.9%)
Lib Dem: 8111 (17.3%)
BNP: 3606 (7.7%)
UKIP: 2613 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 5866 (12.5%)

Sitting MP: Kevin Barron (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

8. Rotherham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6279 (16.7%)
Labour: 16741 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 5994 (16%)
BNP: 3906 (10.4%)
UKIP: 2220 (5.9%)
Independent: 2366 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 10462 (27.9%)

BY ELECTION
Sarah Champion (Labour) 9866 46.3% (1.7%)
Jane Collins (UKIP) 4648 21.8% (15.9%)
Marlene Guest (BNP) 1804 8.5% (-1.9%)
Yvonne Ridley (Respect) 1778 8.3% (n/a)
Simon Wilson (Conservative) 1157 5.4% (-11.3%)
David Wildgoose (English Democrats) 703 3.3% (n/a)
Simon Copley (Independent) 582 2.7% (n/a)
Michael Beckett (Liberal Democrat) 451 2.1% (-13.9%)
Ralph Dyson (TUSC) 261 1.2% (n/a)
Paul Dickson (Independent) 51 0.2% (n/a)
Clint Bristow (no description) 29 0.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 5218 24.5%
Turnout 33.9% (-25.1%)

Sitting MP: Sarah Champion (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

UKIP think they have a chance here, but if they do, they will need to do much better than they did in the by-election. Unlikely.

9. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4468 (11.5%)
Labour: 21400 (55%)
Lib Dem: 7768 (20%)
BNP: 3026 (7.8%)
UKIP: 1596 (4.1%)
TUSC: 656 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 13632 (35%)

Sitting MP: David Blunkett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat., David Blunkett is standing down and will be replaced by Harry Harpham.

10. Sheffield Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4206 (10.1%)
Labour: 17138 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 16973 (40.9%)
BNP: 903 (2.2%)
Green: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
Independent: 40 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 165 (0.4%)

Sitting MP: Paul Blomfield (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems just failed to take this seat last time. Their only hope this time (and it’s not much of one) is for Labour to put all their resources into unseating Nick Clegg.

11. Sheffield Hallam

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12040 (23.5%)
Labour: 8228 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 27324 (53.4%)
Green: 919 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.3%)
English Dem: 586 (1.1%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 429 (0.8%)
Others: 164 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 15284 (29.9%)

Sitting MP: Nick Clegg (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

This used to be a Tory seat, but it would take a political earthquake for them to take it off Nick Clegg. Interestingly the Labour vote has started to rise, but not enough to cause the LibDems to panic. Yet. If the LibDems are obliterated, then Clegg will probably be obliterated too, but if they retain around half their seats, this ought to be one of them. Or will there be a Clegg effect, which means the LibDems will fare worse here than elsewhere.

12. Sheffield Heeley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7081 (17.3%)
Labour: 17409 (42.6%)
Lib Dem: 11602 (28.4%)
BNP: 2260 (5.5%)
Green: 989 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1530 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5807 (14.2%)

Sitting MP: Meg Munn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

13. Sheffield South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7202 (17.4%)
Labour: 20169 (48.7%)
Lib Dem: 9664 (23.3%)
BNP: 2345 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1889 (4.6%)
Others: 139 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10505 (25.4%)

Sitting MP: Clive Betts (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

14. Wentworth & Dearne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7396 (17.6%)
Labour: 21316 (50.6%)
Lib Dem: 6787 (16.1%)
BNP: 3189 (7.6%)
UKIP: 3418 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 13920 (33.1%)

Sitting MP: John Healey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE