ck in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

WEST YORKSHIRE

Seats: 22
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 12, LibDem 2, Respect 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 16, LibDem 1, Respect 1
Final Prediction: Unchanged

1. Batley & Spen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17159 (33.6%)
Labour: 21565 (42.2%)
Lib Dem: 8095 (15.8%)
BNP: 3685 (7.2%)
Green: 605 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 4406 (8.6%)

Sitting MP: Mike Wood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Held by Labour since 1997 and unlikely to change hands in 2010.

2. Bradford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10860 (26.8%)
Labour: 13272 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 13637 (33.7%)
BNP: 1854 (4.6%)
Independent: 375 (0.9%)
Others: 459 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 365 (0.9%)

Sitting MP: David Ward (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

A dead cert Labour gain, I’d have thought, and a result which will bring joy to jewish people all over the country.

3. Bradford South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11060 (29.1%)
Labour: 15682 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6948 (18.3%)
BNP: 2651 (7%)
UKIP: 1339 (3.5%)
Others: 315 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4622 (12.2%)

Sitting MP: Gerry Sutcliffe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Hard to see anything other than a Labour hold here.

4. Bradford West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12638 (31.1%)
Labour: 18401 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 4732 (11.7%)
BNP: 1370 (3.4%)
Green: 940 (2.3%)
UKIP: 812 (2%)
Respect: 1245 (3.1%)
Others: 438 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5763 (14.2%)

BY-ELECTION
George Galloway (Respect) 18341 55.9% (52.8%)
Imran Hussain (Labour) 8201 25% (-20.3%)
Jackie Whiteley (Conservative) 2746 8.4% (-22.7%)
Jeanette Sunderland (Liberal Democrat) 1505 4.6% (-7.1%)
Sonja McNally (UKIP) 1085 3.3% (1.3%)
Dawud Islam (Green) 481 1.5% (-0.8%)
Neil Craig (Democratic Nationalists) 344 1% (-0.1%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 111 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 10140 30.9%
Turnout 50% (-14.9%)

Sitting MP: George Galloway (Respect)
Prediction: Respect hold

Given the majority in the by-election you’d think George Galloway would be a shoo-in. And the sad truth is that he almost certainly will be.

5. Calder Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20397 (39.4%)
Labour: 13966 (27%)
Lib Dem: 13037 (25.2%)
BNP: 1823 (3.5%)
Green: 858 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1173 (2.3%)
English Dem: 157 (0.3%)
Independent: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6431 (12.4%)

Sitting MP: Craig Whittaker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Should be a Tory hold although Labour will have a good go at this seat if they can attract over a few thousand LibDem voters.

6. Colne Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20440 (37%)
Labour: 14589 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 15603 (28.2%)
BNP: 1893 (3.4%)
Green: 867 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1163 (2.1%)
TUSC: 741 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4837 (8.7%)

Sitting MP: Jason McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

McCartney benefits from a split opposition. His majority will undoubtedly be cut, but it can only be eradicated if Labour wins over a lot of LibDem voters.

7. Dewsbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18898 (35%)
Labour: 17372 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 9150 (16.9%)
BNP: 3265 (6%)
Green: 849 (1.6%)
English Dem: 661 (1.2%)
Independent: 3813 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 1526 (2.8%)

Sitting MP: Simon Reevell (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

The Ashcroft poll in this seat puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 30% and UKIP on 18%. Local election results also show Labour in the lead.

8. Elmet & Rothwell

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23778 (42.6%)
Labour: 19257 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9109 (16.3%)
BNP: 1802 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1593 (2.9%)
Independent: 250 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4521 (8.1%)

Sitting MP: Alec Shelbrooke
Prediction: Conservative hold

This one could be very close indeed, but Shelbrooke had got a good local reputation and the local elections went in his favour. I reckon he will pull through but there might only be a few hundred votes in it.

9. Halifax

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14806 (34%)
Labour: 16278 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 8335 (19.1%)
BNP: 2760 (6.3%)
UKIP: 654 (1.5%)
Others: 722 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1472 (3.4%)

Sitting MP: Linda Riordan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The Tories had high hopes here last time but they didn’t quite manage it. Labour will hang on with an increased majority.

10. Hemsworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10662 (24.3%)
Labour: 20506 (46.8%)
Lib Dem: 5667 (12.9%)
BNP: 3059 (7%)
Independent: 3946 (9%)
MAJORITY: 9844 (22.5%)

Sitting MP: Jon Trickett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

11. Huddersfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11253 (27.8%)
Labour: 15725 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 10023 (24.7%)
BNP: 1563 (3.9%)
Green: 1641 (4%)
TUSC: 319 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4472 (11%)

Sitting MP: Barry Sheerman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat.

12. Keighley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20003 (41.9%)
Labour: 17063 (35.8%)
Lib Dem: 7059 (14.8%)
BNP: 1962 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1470 (3.1%)
Others: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2940 (6.2%)

Sitting MP: Kris Hopkins (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

Not a dead cert Labour gain, it has to be said, but Hopkins would be the toast of the Tory Party if he manages to hold this seat. In the Ashcroft poll UKIP scored 23% and it’s clear that a lot of these are ex Conservatives. He needs UKIP to eat into the Labour vote.

13. Leeds Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20.2%)
Labour: 18434 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7789 (20.8%)
BNP: 3066 (8.2%)
Independent: 409 (1.1%)
Others: 155 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10645 (28.5%)

Sitting MP: Hilary Benn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

14. Leeds East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8763 (23.2%)
Labour: 19056 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6618 (17.5%)
BNP: 2947 (7.8%)
Others: 429 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10293 (27.2%)

Sitting MP: George Mudie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

15. Leeds North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15742 (33.1%)
Labour: 20287 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9310 (19.6%)
BNP: 758 (1.6%)
UKIP: 842 (1.8%)
Others: 596 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4545 (9.6%)

Sitting MP: Fabian Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Sir Keith Joseph’s former seat, it hasn’t been Tory since 1992. It’s unlikely to go back to the blue corner in 2010.

16. Leeds North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11550 (26.6%)
Labour: 9132 (21%)
Lib Dem: 20653 (47.5%)
BNP: 766 (1.8%)
Green: 508 (1.2%)
UKIP: 600 (1.4%)
English Dem: 153 (0.4%)
Others: 121 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9103 (20.9%)

Sitting MP: Greg Mulholland (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

If there is any such thing as a safe LibDem seat, this is it. It’s got a split opposition and Greg Mulholland has worked the constituency like only a LibDem knows how to. I’d be astonished if he lost.

17. Leeds West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7641 (19.7%)
Labour: 16389 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 9373 (24.2%)
BNP: 2377 (6.1%)
Green: 1832 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1140 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 7016 (18.1%)

Sitting MP: Rachel Reeves
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

18. Morley & Outwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17264 (35.3%)
Labour: 18365 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 8186 (16.8%)
BNP: 3535 (7.2%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 1101 (2.3%)

Sitting MP: Ed Balls (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority.

The Tories really thought they might win this seat last time, and they came much closer than pundits predicted. Can they oust their bogeyman this time? It’s highly unlikely. UKIP have done well here in the local elections and may well take a large number of votes from the Tories. Expect Ed Balls’ majority to rocket.

19. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11314 (24.5%)
Labour: 22293 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7585 (16.4%)
BNP: 3864 (8.4%)
Independent: 1183 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10979 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

20. Pudsey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18874 (38.5%)
Labour: 17215 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 10224 (20.8%)
BNP: 1549 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1221 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 1659 (3.4%)

Sitting MP: Stuart Andrew (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain

Very difficult to call. The Ashcroft poll has Labour and the Tories at 36% each. There’s a substantial LibDem vote to eek out. I think this is a seat where the majority may well be under 500.

21. Shipley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24002 (48.6%)
Labour: 14058 (28.4%)
Lib Dem: 9890 (20%)
Green: 1477 (3%)
MAJORITY: 9944 (20.1%)

Sitting MP: Philip Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

22. Wakefield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15841 (35.6%)
Labour: 17454 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 7256 (16.3%)
BNP: 2581 (5.8%)
Green: 873 (2%)
Independent: 439 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1613 (3.6%)

Sitting MP: Mary Creagh (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A narrow majority, but Mary Creagh will be safe here, surely. Ed Miliband certainly can’t afford to lose her. UKIP have eaten into the Tory vote and may well come second. They beat the Tories in the 2014 local elections.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE