Back in January I predicted the outcome of the General Election, seat by seat. Since then, I have done more research and altered some of the predictions taking into account various issues including new updated constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft. Over the next ten days I will be revisiting each county and region giving my final predictions. I’d still welcome feedback, even at this late stage.

GREATER MANCHESTER

Seats: 27
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 22, LibDem 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Lab 23, UKIP 1
Final Prediction: Con 2, Lab 24, LibDem 1

1. Altrincham & Sale West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24176 (48.9%)
Labour: 11073 (22.4%)
Lib Dem: 12581 (25.5%)
UKIP: 1563 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 11595 (23.5%)

Sitting MP: Graham Brady (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Ashton under Lyne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9510 (24.7%)
Labour: 18604 (48.4%)
Lib Dem: 5703 (14.8%)
BNP: 2929 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 9094 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: David Heyes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Blackley & Broughton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6260 (18.3%)
Labour: 18563 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 4861 (14.2%)
BNP: 2469 (7.2%)
UKIP: 894 (2.6%)
Respect: 996 (2.9%)
Christian: 161 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12303 (36%)

Sitting MP: Graham Stringer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

4. Bolton North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15786 (36.5%)
Labour: 19870 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 5624 (13%)
UKIP: 1815 (4.2%)
Others: 182 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4084 (9.4%)

Sitting MP: David Crausby (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat this time.

5. Bolton South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10148 (25.6%)
Labour: 18782 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 6289 (15.9%)
BNP: 2012 (5.1%)
Green: 614 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.9%)
Others: 195 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 8634 (21.8%)

Sitting MP: Yasmin Qureshi (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. Bolton West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18235 (38.3%)
Labour: 18327 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 8177 (17.2%)
Green: 545 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1901 (4%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
Others: 137 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 92 (0.2%)

Sitting MP: Julie Hilling (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Very close last time, and I did wonder if this might be a seat where UKIP might take votes off Labour. However, if the Ashcroft poll for Bolton West is right, UKIP are taking far more votes from the LibDems and Tories.

7. Bury North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18070 (40.2%)
Labour: 15827 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 7645 (17%)
BNP: 1825 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1282 (2.9%)
Independent: 181 (0.4%)
Others: 131 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2243 (5%)

Sitting MP: David Nuttall (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

This one could go either way. David Nuttall’s strong Eurosceptism may mean that the UKIP vote here is depressed, but will that be enough to save him?

8. Bury South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16216 (33.6%)
Labour: 19508 (40.4%)
Lib Dem: 8796 (18.2%)
BNP: 1743 (3.6%)
Green: 493 (1%)
UKIP: 1017 (2.1%)
English Dem: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3292 (6.8%)

Sitting MP: Ivan Lewis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ivan Lewis should be safe here.

9. Cheadle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21445 (40.8%)
Labour: 4920 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 24717 (47.1%)
UKIP: 1430 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 3272 (6.2%)

Sitting MP: Mark Hunter (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Apart from a narrow majority in 1997 of 33, the LibDems have had a majority of three or four thousand in this seat ever since. I had predicted the LibDems to hold this but I now think it is increasingly unlikely. The Tory vote share here in the last four elections has been 44, 42, 40, 41. If you add together the Labour and LibDem vote share in the last four elections you get 54, 56, 58, 56. It seems highly likely that there will be a shift from the LibDems to Labour here, thus letting the Tory candidate through the middle.

10. Denton & Reddish

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9360 (24.9%)
Labour: 19191 (51%)
Lib Dem: 6727 (17.9%)
UKIP: 2060 (5.5%)
Independent: 297 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 9831 (26.1%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Gwynne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

11. Hazel Grove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14114 (33.6%)
Labour: 5234 (12.5%)
Lib Dem: 20485 (48.8%)
UKIP: 2148 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6371 (15.2%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Stunell (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Final Prediction: LibDem hold

LibDem majority has fallen in every election since 1997 but the Tories haven’t been able to capitalise. It may well be that UKIP stops them from doing so in May. I find this one of the most difficult LibDem seats to call. Andrew Stunell’s incumbency vote will go, and the fact that the LibDems have chosen a successor from London won’t help them, especially as the Tory candidate is from the area. I’m going to go for a narrow Tory win, based on a general collapse in the LibDem vote, but this is one of my least confident calls, I am happy to admit.

12. Heywood & Middleton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12528 (27.2%)
Labour: 18499 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10474 (22.7%)
BNP: 3239 (7%)
UKIP: 1215 (2.6%)
Independent: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5971 (12.9%)

BY-ELECTION
Liz McInnes (Labour) 11633 40.9% (0.8%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 11016 38.7% (36.1%)
Iain Gartside (Conservative) 3496 12.3% (-14.9%)
Anthony Smith (Liberal Democrat) 1457 5.1% (-17.6%)
Abi Jackson (Green) 870 3.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 617 2.2% (-10.7%)
Turnout 36% (-21.5%)

Sitting MP: Liz McInnes (Lab)
Prediction: UKIP gain
Final Prediction: Labour hold

UKIP came within an inch of winning the by-election last November and have been quietly pouring huge resources into this seat ever since. Their persistence may pay off in May if they can persuade Tory voters to vote tactically. If not, my face will be covered with much egg.

13. Leigh

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9284 (20.9%)
Labour: 21295 (48%)
Lib Dem: 8049 (18.2%)
BNP: 2724 (6.1%)
UKIP: 1535 (3.5%)
Christian: 137 (0.3%)
Independent: 988 (2.2%)
Others: 320 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12011 (27.1%)

Sitting MP: Andy Burnham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

14. Makerfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8210 (18.8%)
Labour: 20700 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 7082 (16.2%)
BNP: 3229 (7.4%)
Independent: 3424 (7.8%)
Others: 1126 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12490 (28.5%)

Sitting MP: Yvonne Fovargue (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

15. Manchester Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4704 (11.8%)
Labour: 21059 (52.7%)
Lib Dem: 10620 (26.6%)
BNP: 1636 (4.1%)
Green: 915 (2.3%)
UKIP: 607 (1.5%)
Independent: 120 (0.3%)
Others: 266 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10439 (26.1%)

BY ELECTION
Lucy Powell (Labour) 11507 69.1% (16.4%)
Marc Ramsbottom (Liberal Democrat) 1571 9.4% (-17.2%)
Matthew Sephton (Conservative) 754 4.5% (-7.3%)
Chris Cassidy (UKIP) 749 4.5% (3.0%)
Tom Dylan (Green) 652 3.9% (1.6%)
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP) 492 3% (-1.1%)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 308 1.9% (n/a)
Alex Davidson (TUSC) 220 1.3% (n/a)
Catherine Higgins (Respect) 182 1.1% (n/a)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 78 0.5% (n/a)
Lee Holmes (Peoples Democratic) 71 0.4% (n/a)
Peter Clifford (Communist League) 64 0.4% (n/a)
MAJORITY 9936 59.7% (33.6%)
Turnout 18.2% (-28.5%)

Sitting MP: Lucy Powell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat

16. Manchester Gorton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4224 (11%)
Labour: 19211 (50.1%)
Lib Dem: 12508 (32.6%)
Green: 1048 (2.7%)
Respect: 507 (1.3%)
Christian: 254 (0.7%)
TUSC: 337 (0.9%)
Others: 236 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 6703 (17.5%)

Sitting MP: Sir Gerald Kaufman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

17. Manchester Withington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5005 (11.1%)
Labour: 18216 (40.5%)
Lib Dem: 20110 (44.7%)
Green: 798 (1.8%)
UKIP: 698 (1.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
Others: 57 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 1894 (4.2%)

Sitting MP: John Leech (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain

The Ashcroft poll was Lab 56%, LD 22%, Green 10%, Con 7%, UKIP 4%. Surely John Leech can’t overcome those sort of figures?

18. Oldham East & Saddleworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11773 (26.4%)
Labour: 14186 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 14083 (31.6%)
BNP: 2546 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1720 (3.9%)
Christian: 212 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 103 (0.2%)

BY-ELECTION
Debbie Abrahams (Labour) 14718 42.1% (10.2%)
Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrat) 11160 31.9% (0.3%)
Kashif Ali (Conservative) 4481 12.8% (-13.6%)
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 2029 5.8% (1.9%)
Derek Adams (BNP) 1560 4.5% (-1.2%)
Peter Allen (Green) 530 1.5% (n/a)
Nick the Flying Brick Delves (Loony) 145 0.4% (n/a)
Stephen Morris (English Democrats) 144 0.4% (n/a)
Loz Kaye (Pirate) 96 0.3% (n/a)
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis) 67 0.2% (n/a)
MAJORITY 3558 10.2% (10%)

Sitting MP: Debbie Abrahams (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A genuine three way marginal. This is one of those north west seats where UKIP could take a lot of votes away from Labour to the benefit of the Conservatives. I’m told the LibDems have a very strong party machine here. Is it impossible to imagine a LibDem win? Probably, but if the Tories decide to vote tactically, who knows? The safest prediction, though, is surely a Labour hold.

19. Oldham West & Royton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10151 (23.7%)
Labour: 19503 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 8193 (19.1%)
BNP: 3049 (7.1%)
UKIP: 1387 (3.2%)
Respect: 627 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 9352 (21.8%)

Sitting MP: Michael Meacher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

20. Rochdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8305 (18.1%)
Labour: 16699 (36.4%)
Lib Dem: 15810 (34.4%)
UKIP: 1999 (4.4%)
Independent: 313 (0.7%)
Others: 2781 (6.1%)
MAJORITY: 889 (1.9%)

Sitting MP: Simon Danczuk (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

The LibDems have apparently imploded here. The former seat of Liz Lynne & Cyril Smith, it’s unlikely the LibDems will be able to reverse the 2010 result this time.

21. Salford & Eccles

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8497 (20.5%)
Labour: 16655 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 10930 (26.3%)
BNP: 2632 (6.3%)
UKIP: 1084 (2.6%)
English Dem: 621 (1.5%)
TUSC: 730 (1.8%)
Independent: 384 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5725 (13.8%)

Sitting MP: Hazel Blears (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

22. Stalybridge & Hyde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13445 (32.9%)
Labour: 16189 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 6965 (17%)
BNP: 2259 (5.5%)
Green: 679 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1342 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 2744 (6.7%)

Sitting MP: Jonathan Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Reynolds is a rising star in the Labour firmament and will hold this semi-marginal seat.

23. Stockport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9913 (25.3%)
Labour: 16697 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9778 (25%)
BNP: 1201 (3.1%)
Green: 677 (1.7%)
UKIP: 862 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 6784 (17.3%)

Sitting MP: Ann Coffey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This was a Tory seat through much of the 1980s, held by Tony Favell, but Labour has managed to turn this into a relatively safe seat for them courtesy of a split opposition vote.

24. Stretford & Urmston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12886 (28.7%)
Labour: 21821 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 7601 (16.9%)
Green: 916 (2%)
UKIP: 1508 (3.4%)
Christian: 178 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 8935 (19.9%)

Sitting MP: Kate Green (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

25. Wigan

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10917 (24.7%)
Labour: 21404 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (15.4%)
BNP: 2506 (5.7%)
UKIP: 2516 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 10487 (23.8%)

Sitting MP: Lisa Nandy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

26. Worsley & Eccles South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13555 (32.5%)
Labour: 17892 (42.9%)
Lib Dem: 6883 (16.5%)
UKIP: 2037 (4.9%)
English Dem: 1334 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 4337 (10.4%)

Sitting MP: Barbara Keeley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat.

27. Wythenshawe & Sale East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10412 (25.6%)
Labour: 17987 (44.1%)
Lib Dem: 9107 (22.3%)
BNP: 1572 (3.9%)
UKIP: 1405 (3.4%)
TUSC: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 7575 (18.6%)

BY ELECTION
Mike Kane (Labour): 13,261
John Bickley (UKIP): 4,301
Reverend Daniel Critchlow (Conservatives): 3,479
Mary Di Mauro (Lib Dem): 1,176
Nigel Woodcock (Green Party): 748
Eddy O’Sullivan (BNP): 708
Captain Chaplington-Smythe (Monster Raving Loony): 288
Turnout: 28%

Sitting MP: Michael Kane (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE