General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 10. Wales - Dyfed

DYFED

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, LibDem 1, Lab 1, PC 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 2, LibDem 1, Lab 1, PC 1

1. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8506 (22.4%)
Labour: 10065 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 4609 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 13546 (35.6%)
UKIP: 1285 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 3481 (9.2%)

2015 Result:
Plaid Cymru Jonathan Edwards 15,140 38.4 +2.8
Labour Calum Higgins 9,541 24.2 −2.3
Conservative Matthew Paul 8,336 21.2 −1.2
UKIP Norma Woodward⁸ 4,363 11.1 +7.7
Green Ben Rice⁹ 1,091 2.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Sara Lloyd Williams¹⁰ 928 2.4 −9.8
Majority 5,599 14.2 +5.0
Turnout 39,399 70.9 −1.7

Leave Vote: 52.98%

Sitting MP: Jonathan Edwards (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold

2. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16649 (41.1%)
Labour: 13226 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 4890 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 4232 (10.4%)
UKIP: 1146 (2.8%)
Independent: 364 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3423 (8.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Hart 17,626 43.7 +2.6
Labour Delyth Evans 11,572 28.7 −4.0
UKIP John Atkinson⁸ 4,698 11.6 +8.8
Plaid Cymru Dewi Williams 4,201 10.4 0.0
Green Gary Tapley ⁹¹⁰¹¹ 1,290 3.2 n/a
Liberal Democrat Selwyn Runnett¹² 963 2.4 −9.7
Majority 6,054 15.0 +6.5
Turnout 40,350 69.8 −0.6

Leave Vote: 52.61%
Sitting MP: Simon Hart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Ceredigion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4421 (11.6%)
Labour: 2210 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 19139 (50%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.3%)
Green: 696 (1.8%)
UKIP: 977 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8324 (21.8%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrat Mark Williams 13,414 35.9 -14.2
Plaid Cymru Mike Parker 10,347 27.7 -0.6
Conservative Henrietta Hensher 4,123 11.0 -0.5
UKIP Gethin James 3,829 10.2 +7.7
Labour Huw Thomas 3,615 9.7 +3.9
Green Daniel Thompson 2,088 5.6 +3.8
Majority 3,067 8.2 -13.6
Turnout 37,416 69.0 +4.2

Leave Vote: 44.61%
Sittting MP: Mark Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

4. Llanelli

2010 Result:
Conservative: 5381 (14.4%)
Labour: 15916 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 3902 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 11215 (29.9%)
UKIP: 1047 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4701 (12.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Nia Griffith¹³ 15,948 41.3 −1.1
Plaid Cymru Vaughan Williams¹⁴ 8,853 23.0 −7.0
UKIP Kenneth Rees 6,269 16.3 +13.5
Conservative Selaine Saxby¹⁵ 5,534 14.3 0.0
Liberal Democrat Cen Phillips¹⁶ 751 1.9 −8.5
Green Guy Smith 689 1.8 N/A
People First Siân Caiach¹⁷ 407 1.1 N/A
TUSC Scott Jones 123 0.3 N/A
Majority 7,095 18.4 +5.9
Turnout 38,574 64.5 -2.8

Leave Vote: 56.43%
Sitting MP: Nia Griffith (Lab)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru gain
Revised: Lab hold

Plaid are in a good second place and even though their vote went down in 2015 this is one they will hope to win this time. With Jeremy Corbyn’s help, they might just do that.

5. Preseli Pembrokeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16944 (42.8%)
Labour: 12339 (31.2%)
Lib Dem: 5759 (14.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 3654 (9.2%)
UKIP: 906 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 4605 (11.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Crabb 16,383 40.4 −2.4
Labour Paul Miller 11,414 28.1 −3.0
UKIP Howard Lillyman 4,257 10.5 +8.2
Independent Chris Overton 3,729 9.2 +9.2
Plaid Cymru John Osmond 2,518 6.2 −3.0
Green Frances Bryant 1,452 3.6 N/A
Liberal Democrat Nick Tregoning 780 1.9 −12.6
The New Society of Worth Rodney Maile 23 0.1 n/a
Majority 4,969 12.3 +0.7
Turnout 40,556 70.7 +1.7

Sitting MP: Stephen Crabb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE