General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 11. Suffolk

SUFFOLK

Number of Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Conservative, 7
Prediction for 2017: Conservative 7

1. Bury St Edmunds
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27899 (47.5%)
Labour: 9776 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 15519 (26.4%)
Green: 2521 (4.3%)
UKIP: 3003 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 12380 (21.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jo Churchill¹² 31,815 53.6 +6.1
Labour William Edwards ¹³ 10,514 17.7 +1.1
UKIP John Howlett 8,739 14.7 +9.6
Green Helen Geake ¹⁴ 4,692 7.9 +3.6
Liberal Democrat David Chappell 3,581 6.0 -20.4
Majority 21,301 35.9 +6.1
Turnout 59,341 69.0 -0.3

Leave Vote: 55.96%

Sitting MP: Jo Churchill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Central Suffolk & North Ipswich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27125 (50.8%)
Labour: 8636 (16.2%)
Lib Dem: 13339 (25%)
Green: 1452 (2.7%)
UKIP: 2361 (4.4%)
Independent: 389 (0.7%)
Others: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 13786 (25.8%)

Conservative Daniel Poulter 30,317 56.1 +5.3
Labour Jack Abbott 10,173 18.8 +2.6
UKIP Mark Cole 7,459 13.8 +9.4
Liberal Democrat Jon Neal 3,314 6.1 −18.8
Green Rhodri Griffiths 2,664 4.9 +2.2
English Democrat Tony Holyoak 162 0.3 N/A
Majority 20,144 37.2 +11.4
Turnout 54,089 68.7 −1.7

Leave Vote: 56.36%

Sitting MP: Dr Dan Poulter (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Ipswich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18371 (39.1%)
Labour: 16292 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 8556 (18.2%)
BNP: 1270 (2.7%)
Green: 775 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1365 (2.9%)
Christian: 149 (0.3%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 70 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2079 (4.4%)

Conservative Ben Gummer 21,794 44.8 +5.6
Labour David Ellesmere 18,051 37.1 +2.4
UKIP Maria Vigneau 5,703 11.7 +8.8
Green Barry Broom 1,736 3.6 +1.9
Liberal Democrat Chika Akinwale 1,400 2.9 −15.4
Majority 3,733 7.7 +3.3
Turnout 48,694 65.4 +5.5

Leave Vote: 57.52%

Sitting MP: Ben Gummer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Another of those bellweather seats that tends to swing with the political wind. If Labour is to get near winning an election it needs to win Ipswich. I see little prospect of that happening. Ben Gummer is a prominent remainer in a very Leave seat. Might that mean the UKIP vote will hold up better here? I don’t think that will be enough to prevent another Gummer victory, though.

4. South Suffolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24550 (47.7%)
Labour: 7368 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 15861 (30.8%)
UKIP: 3637 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 8689 (16.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Cartlidge 27,546 53.1 +5.4
Labour Jane Basham 10,001 19.3 +5.0
UKIP Steven Whalley⁶ 7,897 15.2 +8.1
Liberal Democrat Grace Weaver 4,044 7.8 −23.0
Green Robert Lindsay 2,253 4.3 N/A
Christian Peoples Stephen Todd⁷ 166 0.3 N/A
Majority 17,545 33.8 16.9
Turnout 51,907 71.0 +0.1

Leave Vote: 58.14%

Sitting MP: James Cartlidge (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Suffolk Coastal

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25475 (46.4%)
Labour: 8812 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 16347 (29.8%)
Green: 1103 (2%)
UKIP: 3156 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 9128 (16.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Therese Coffey 28,855 51.9 +5.5
Labour Russell Whiting 10,013 18.0 +2.0
UKIP Daryll Pitcher 8,655 15.6 +9.8
Liberal Democrat James Sandbach 4,777 8.6 −21.2
Green Rachel Smith-Lyte 3,294 5.9 +3.9
Majority 18,842 33.9 +17.3
Turnout 55,594 70.6 −0.6

Leave Vote: 56.52%

Sitting MP: Therese Coffey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Waveney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20571 (40.2%)
Labour: 19802 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6811 (13.3%)
Green: 1167 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.2%)
Independent: 106 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 769 (1.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Aldous 22,104 42.3 +2.1
Labour Bob Blizzard 19,696 37.7 −1.0
UKIP Simon Tobin 7,580 14.5 +9.3
Green Graham Elliott 1,761 3.4 +1.1
Liberal Democrat Stephen Gordon 1,055 2.0 −11.3
Majority 2,408 4.6
Turnout 52,196 65.1

Leave Vote: 66.37%

Sitting MP: Peter Aldous (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A narrow majority in both of the last elections for Peter Aldous. UKIP put on a shed load of votes last time, many of which ought to revert to the Conservatives this time. Difficult to see Labour winning here in the current circumstances. One of the highest Leave votes in the country.

7. West Suffolk

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24312 (50.6%)
Labour: 7089 (14.7%)
Lib Dem: 11262 (23.4%)
BNP: 1428 (3%)
UKIP: 3085 (6.4%)
Independent: 540 (1.1%)
Others: 373 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13050 (27.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Matthew Hancock 25,684 52.2 +1.6
UKIP Julian Flood⁸ 10,700 21.7 +15.3
Labour Michael Jefferys 8,604 17.5 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Elfreda Tealby-Watson⁹ 2,465 5.0 −18.4
Green Niall Pettitt¹⁰ 1,779 3.6 N/A
Majority 14,984 30.4 +3.3
Turnout 49,429 64.9 +0.3

Leave Vote: 65.27%

Sitting MP: Matthew Hancock (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Seeing as this has been a Conservative held seat since the 19th century, it’s another Conservative hold to be your mortgage on. However, it will be interesting to see how the high Leave vote affects the Remain supporting MP’s majority.

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE