General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 13. Bristol & Surrounds

Bristol & Surrounds

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 8 , LibDem 2, Green 1
Revised: Con 9, Lab 1, Green 1
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1. Bath*

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14768 (31.4%)
Labour: 3251 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 26651 (56.6%)
Green: 1120 (2.4%)
UKIP: 890 (1.9%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 56 (0.1%)
Others: 100 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 11883 (25.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ben Howlett ¹⁶ 17,833 37.8 +6.4
Liberal Democrat Steve Bradley ¹⁷ 14,000 29.7 −26.9
Labour Ollie Middleton ¹⁸¹⁹ 6,216 13.2 +6.3
Green Dominic Tristram ²⁰ 5,634 11.9 +9.6
UKIP Julian Deverell ²¹ 2,922 6.2 +4.3
Independent Loraine Morgan-Brinkhurst ²²²³ 499 1.1 +1.1
English Democrat Jenny Knight 63 0.1 +0.1
Majority 3,833 8.1 −7
Turnout 47,167 77.5 5.7

Leave Vote: 33.58%

Sitting MP: Ben Howlett (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Con hold

The Conservatives were desperate to win this seat back ever since Chris Patten lost it in 1992, and they did so in 2015. There’s a very good chance the LibDems could win it back this time even though the MP is so left of centre and pro Remain he’s virtually a LibDem anyway. If the Greens stand down and the LibDems can attract some of the Labour vote, Ben Howlett is going to be facing his P45. Because of his arch-Remain stance it’s unlikely many UKIP voters will switch to him.

2. Bristol East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12749 (28.3%)
Labour: 16471 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 10993 (24.4%)
BNP: 1960 (4.4%)
Green: 803 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1510 (3.4%)
English Dem: 347 (0.8%)
TUSC: 184 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3722 (8.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Kerry McCarthy 18,148 39.3 +2.7
Conservative Theodora Clarke 14,168 30.7 +2.3
UKIP James McMurray 7,152 15.5 +12.1
Green Lorraine Francis⁹ 3,827 8.3 +6.5
Liberal Democrat Abdul Malik 2,689 5.8 −18.6
TUSC Matt Gordon¹⁰ 229 0.5 +0.1
Majority 3,980 8.6 +0.3
Turnout 46,213 64.2 −0.6

Leave Vote: 54.94%

Sitting MP: Kerry McCarthy (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This has consistently been a Labour seat but the Conservatives will target this seat on June 8th. Kerry McCarthy’s best hope is that she can persuade the Greens to stand down and give her a clear run. If UKIP voters switch in enough numbers and Leave supporting Labour voters defect too, McCarthy will lose. I expect her to.

3. Bristol North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19115 (38%)
Labour: 13059 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 15841 (31.5%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1175 (2.3%)
English Dem: 635 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 3274 (6.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Charlotte Leslie 22,767 43.9 +6.0
Labour Darren Jones 17,823 34.4 +8.5
UKIP Michael Frost 4,889 9.4 +7.1
Liberal Democrat Clare Campion-Smith 3,214 6.2 -25.3
Green Justin Quinnell 2,952 5.7 +4.7
TUSC Anne Lemon 160 0.3 N​/A
Majority 4,944 9.5 +6.0
Turnout 51,805 67.6 -0.9

Leave Vote: 46.21%

Sitting MP: Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Bristol South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11086 (22.9%)
Labour: 18600 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 13866 (28.7%)
BNP: 1739 (3.6%)
Green: 1216 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1264 (2.6%)
English Dem: 400 (0.8%)
TUSC: 206 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4734 (9.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Karin Smyth ⁷ 19,505 38.4 -0.1
Conservative Isobel Grant ⁸ 12,377 24.3 +1.4
UKIP Steve Wood ⁹ 8,381 16.5 +13.9
Green Tony Dyer ¹⁰ 5,861 11.5 +9.0
Liberal Democrat Mark Wright ¹¹ 4,416 8.7 -20.0
TUSC Tom Baldwin ¹² 302 0.6 +0.2
Majority 7,128 14.0 +4.2
Turnout 50,842 62.0 +0.4

Leave Vote: 54.05%

Sitting MP: Karin Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

Safe Labour seat. At least it was. I expect the Labour vote to drift to the Greens and LibDems (assuming the Greens stand) and the Torie to pick off half of the UKIP vote. If that happens Karin Smith is toast.

5. Bristol West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10169 (18.4%)
Labour: 15227 (27.5%)
Lib Dem: 26593 (48%)
Green: 2090 (3.8%)
UKIP: 655 (1.2%)
English Dem: 270 (0.5%)
Independent: 343 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11366 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Thangam Debbonaire 22,900 35.7 +8.1
Green Darren Hall 17,227 26.8 +23.0
Liberal Democrat Stephen Williams 12,103 18.8 −29.2
Conservative Claire Hiscott 9,752 15.2 −3.2
UKIP Paul Turner 1,940 3.0 +1.8
Independent Dawn Parry 204 0.3 N/A
Left Unity Stewart Weston 92 0.1 N/A
Majority 5,673 8.8 -11.7
Turnout 64,218 72.0 +5.1

Leave Vote: 19.95%

Sitting MP: Thangnam Debbonaire (Lab)
Prediction: Green gain

The Greens are taking the seat very seriously and it’s their best hope of doubling their parliamentary representation. The popular MEP Molly Scott Cato is their candidate and I expect her to eat into the LibDem vote. A lot depends on whether any of the Labour vote goes to them or the LibDems. Thangnam Debbonaire is quite popular and if anyone can hold onto the seat it’s her, but I am going to stick my neck out and predict a very narrow Green win. I may live to regret it.

6. Filton & Bradley Stoke

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19686 (40.8%)
Labour: 12772 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 12197 (25.3%)
BNP: 1328 (2.7%)
Green: 441 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
Christian: 199 (0.4%)
Others: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6914 (14.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jack Lopresti 22,920 46.7 +5.9
Labour Ian Boulton 13,082 26.6 +0.2
UKIP Ben Walker 7,261 14.8 +11.7
Liberal Democrat Pete Bruce 3,581 7.3 -18.0
Green Diana Warner 2,257 4.6 +3.7
Majority 9,838 20.0 +5.8
Turnout 49,101 68.9 -1.1

Leave Vote: 51.25%

Sitting MP: Jack Lopresti (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Kingswood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19362 (40.4%)
Labour: 16917 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8072 (16.8%)
BNP: 1311 (2.7%)
Green: 383 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1528 (3.2%)
English Dem: 333 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2445 (5.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Chris Skidmore 23,252 48.3 +7.9
Labour Jo McCarron⁷ 14,246 29.6 -5.7
UKIP Duncan Odgers⁸ 7,133 14.8 +11.6
Liberal Democrat Adam Boyden⁹ 1,827 3.8 -13.1
Green Cezara Nanu¹⁰ 1,370 2.8 +2.0
BNP Julie Lake¹¹ 164 0.3 -2.4
TUSC Richard Worth¹² 84 0.2 +0.2
Vapers In Power Liam Bryan 49 0.1 +0.1
Majority 9,006 18.7 +13.6
Turnout 48,125 70.8 -1.4

Leave Vote: 60.63%

Sitting MP: Chris Skidmore (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. North East Somerset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21130 (41.3%)
Labour: 16216 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 11433 (22.3%)
Green: 670 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1754 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 4914 (9.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg 25,439 49.8 +8.5
Labour Todd Foreman 12,690 24.8 −6.8
UKIP Ernest Blaber 6,150 12.0 +8.6
Liberal Democrat Wera Hobhouse 4,029 7.9 −14.4
Green Katy Boyce⁹ 2,802 5.5 +4.2
Majority 12,749 24.9
Turnout 73.7

Leave Vote: 54.23%

Sitting MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. North Somerset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28549 (49.3%)
Labour: 6448 (11.1%)
Lib Dem: 20687 (35.7%)
UKIP: 2257 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 7862 (13.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Liam Fox 31,540 53.5 +4.2
Labour Greg Chambers 8,441 14.3 +3.2
UKIP Ian Kealey⁸ 7,669 13.0 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Marcus Kravis 7,486 12.7 −23.0
Green David Derbyshire 3,806 6.5 +6.5
Majority 23,099 39.2 +25.6
Turnout 58,942 73.6 −1.4

Leave Vote: 49.25%

Sitting MP: Liam Fox (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Thornbury & Yate

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17916 (37.2%)
Labour: 3385 (7%)
Lib Dem: 25032 (51.9%)
UKIP: 1709 (3.5%)
Others: 184 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7116 (14.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Luke Hall 19,924 41.0 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Steve Webb 18,429 37.9 -14.0
UKIP Russ Martin 5,126 10.6 +7.0
Labour Hadleigh Roberts 3,775 7.8 +0.8
Green Iain Hamilton 1,316 2.7 N/A
Majority 1,495 3.1
Turnout 48,570 73.7

Leave Vote: 55.97%

Sitting MP: Luke Hall (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Con hold

This is incredibly difficult to predict. Steve Webb isn’t restanding for the LibDems but even so I think this is a probable LibDem gain, especially if the Greens can be persuaded to stand aside. Luke Hall’s main hope is that he can attract the bulk of the UKIP vote. It will all depend on that.

11. Weston Super Mare

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23356 (44.3%)
Labour: 5772 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 20665 (39.2%)
BNP: 1098 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1406 (2.7%)
English Dem: 275 (0.5%)
Independent: 144 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2691 (5.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Penrose 25,203 48.0 +3.7
Labour Tim Taylor 9,594 18.3 +7.4
UKIP Ernie Warrender 9,366 17.8 +15.1
Liberal Democrat John Munro 5,486 10.4 -28.8
Green Richard Lawson 2,592 4.9 +4.9
English Democrat Ronald Lavelle 311 0.6 +0.1
Majority 15,609 29.7 +24.6
Turnout 52,552 66.0 -1.2

Leave Vote: 58.42%

Sitting MP: John Penrose (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE