General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 18. West Midlands

WEST MIDLANDS

Seats 19
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 12
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 14, Lab 5
Revised: Con 13, Lab 6

1. Aldridge & Brownhills

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22913 (59.3%)
Labour: 7647 (19.8%)
Lib Dem: 6833 (17.7%)
Green: 847 (2.2%)
Christian: 394 (1%)
MAJORITY: 15266 (39.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Wendy Morton 20,558 52.0 −7.3
Labour John Fisher 8,835 22.4 +2.6
UKIP Anthony Thompson 7,751 19.6 +19.6
Liberal Democrat Ian Garrett 1,330 3.4 −14.3
Green Martyn Curzey 826 2.1 −0.1
Monster Raving Loony Mark Beech 197 0.5 +0.5
Majority 11,723 29.7 -9.8
Turnout 39,497 65.8 +0.7

Leave Vote: 66.34

Sitting MP: Wendy Morton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Coventry North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9609 (22.1%)
Labour: 21384 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7210 (16.6%)
BNP: 1863 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1291 (3%)
Others: 2026 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 11775 (27.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Colleen Fletcher ⁶ 22,025 52.2 Increase 2.9
Conservative Michelle Lowe 9,751 23.1 Increase 0.9
UKIP Avtar Taggar 6,278 14.9 Increase 11.9
Liberal Democrat Russell Field ⁷ 2,007 4.8 Decrease 11.9
Green Matthew Handley⁸ 1,245 2.9 Increase 2.9
TUSC Nicky Downes 633 1.5 Increase 1.5
Christian Movement for Great Britain William Sidhu 292 0.7 Decrease 0.3
Majority 12,274 29.1 Increase 2
Turnout 42,231 55.3 Decrease 4.1

Leave Vote: 59.59%

Sitting MP: Colleen Fletcher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Coventry North West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13648 (29.3%)
Labour: 19936 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8344 (17.9%)
BNP: 1666 (3.6%)
Green: 497 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1295 (2.8%)
Independent: 640 (1.4%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 6288 (13.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Geoffrey Robinson 18,557 41.0 Decrease 1.8
Conservative Parvez Akhtar 14,048 31.0 Increase 1.7
UKIP Harjinder Sehmi 7,101 15.7 Increase 12.9
Green Laura Vesty⁶ 1,961 4.3 Increase 3.3
Liberal Democrat Andrew Furse 1,810 4.0 Decrease 13.9
TUSC Dave Nellist 1,769 3.9 N/A
Majority 4,509 10.0 Decrease 3.5
Turnout 45,246 60.7 Increase 2.9

Leave Vote: 59.02%

Sitting MP: Geoffrey Robinson (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Bizarrely, Geoffrey Robinson’s best hope is to get the backing of Dave Nellist, because at the moment the Conservatives may well win here by hoovering up UKIP votes.

13. Coventry South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15352 (33.4%)
Labour: 19197 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 8278 (18%)
Green: 639 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1767 (3.8%)
Others: 691 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3845 (8.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jim Cunningham 18,472 42.3 Increase 0.5
Conservative Gary Ridley 15,284 35.0 Increase 1.5
UKIP Mark Taylor⁶ 5,709 13.1 Increase 9.2
Liberal Democrat Greg Judge 1,779 4.1 Decrease 14.0
Green Benjamin Gallaher⁹ 1,719 3.9 Increase 2.5
TUSC Judy Griffiths 650 1.5 N/A
Mainstream Christopher Rooney 86 0.2 N/A
Majority 3,188 7.3 Decrease 1.1
Turnout 43,699 61.2 Decrease 1.2

Leave Vote: 50.12%

Sitting MP: Jim Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories will certainly be targeting this seat heavily. Again, if the UKIP vote drifts to them they will win here, and maybe by a comfortable margin.

14. Dudley North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14274 (37%)
Labour: 14923 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 4066 (10.5%)
BNP: 1899 (4.9%)
UKIP: 3267 (8.5%)
Others: 173 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 649 (1.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ian Austin 15,885 41.8 +3.2
Conservative Les Jones⁴ 11,704 30.8 -6.2
UKIP Bill Etheridge⁵ 9,113 24.0 +15.5
Green Will Duckworth⁶ 517 1.4 +1.4
Liberal Democrat Mike Collins⁷ 478 1.3 -9.3
Apni Rehan Afzal 156 0.4 +0.4
TUSC David Pitt⁸ 139 0.4 +0.4
Majority 4,181 11.0 +9.3
Turnout 37,992 62.6 -0.9

Leave Vote: 67.88%

Sitting MP: Ian Austin (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Ian Austin managed to hold off a strong UKIP and Tory challenge last time, and because of the split opposition he managed to increase his majority. UKIP are incredibly string here and I tipped them to take the seat last time, but Ian Austin proved me wrong. I fear this time I am going to be right and that the Tories will oust him.

15. Dudley South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16450 (43.1%)
Labour: 12594 (33%)
Lib Dem: 5989 (15.7%)
UKIP: 3132 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 3856 (10.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mike Wood⁴ 16,723 43.8 +0.7
Labour Natasha Millward 12,453 32.6 -0.4
UKIP Paul Brothwood⁵ 7,236 18.9 +10.7
Green Vicky Duckworth 970 2.5 +2.5
Liberal Democrat Martin Turner 828 2.2 -13.5
Majority 4,270 11.2 +1.1
Turnout 38,210 63.3 +0.3

Leave Vote: 68.11%

Sitting MP: Mike Wood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

16. Halesowen & Rowley Regis

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18115 (41.2%)
Labour: 16092 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 6515 (14.8%)
UKIP: 2824 (6.4%)
Independent: 433 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2023 (4.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative James Morris 18,933 43.2 +2.0
Labour Stephanie Peacock 15,851 36.2 -0.4
UKIP Dean Perks 7,280 16.6 +10.2
Liberal Democrat Peter Tyzack 905 2.1 -12.7
Green John Payne⁶ 849 1.9 +1.9
Majority 3,082 7.0 2.4
Turnout 43,818 59.1 -9.9

Vote Leave: 65.82%

Sitting MP: James Morris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

17. Meriden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26956 (51.7%)
Labour: 10703 (20.5%)
Lib Dem: 9278 (17.8%)
BNP: 2511 (4.8%)
Green: 678 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1378 (2.6%)
Others: 658 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 16253 (31.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Caroline Spelman 28,791 54.7 +3.1
Labour Tom McNeil¹⁰ 9,996 19.0 -1.5
UKIP Mick Gee 8,908 16.9 +14.3
Liberal Democrat Ade Adeyemo 2,638 5.0 -12.8
Green Alison Gavin¹¹ 2,170 4.1 +2.8
Independence from Europe Chris Booth 100 0.2 +0.2
Majority 18,795 35.7 +4.5
Turnout 52,603 64.9 +1.6

Vote Leave: 59.15%

Sitting MP: Caroline Spelman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

18. Solihull

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23460 (42.6%)
Labour: 4891 (8.9%)
Lib Dem: 23635 (42.9%)
BNP: 1624 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1200 (2.2%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 175 (0.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Knight 26,956 49.2 Increase 6.6
Liberal Democrat Lorely Burt 14,054 25.7 Decrease 17.2
UKIP Phil Henrick⁶ 6,361 11.6 Increase 9.4
Labour Nigel Knowles 5,693 10.4 Increase 1.5
Green Howard Allen 1,632 3.0 N/A
An Independence from Europe Mike Nattrass 50 0.1 N/A
Democratic Matthew J. Ward 33 0.1 N/A
Majority 12,902 23.6
Turnout 54,779 70.9 Decrease 1.36

Sitting MP: Julian Knight (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

19. Stourbridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20153 (42.7%)
Labour: 14989 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 7733 (16.4%)
BNP: 1696 (3.6%)
Green: 394 (0.8%)
UKIP: 2103 (4.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5164 (10.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Margot James 21,195 46.0 Increase 3.4
Labour Pete Lowe 14,501 31.5 Decrease 0.2
UKIP James Carver 7,774 16.9 Increase 12.4
Liberal Democrat Chris Bramall 1,538 3.3 Decrease 13.0
Green Christian Kiever 1,021 2.2 Increase 1.4
Majority 6,694 14.5

Vote Leave: 62.98%

Sitting MP: Margot James (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

20. Sutton Coldfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27303 (54%)
Labour: 10298 (20.4%)
Lib Dem: 9117 (18%)
BNP: 1749 (3.5%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1587 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 17005 (33.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Mitchell 27,782 54.6 Increase 0.7
Labour Robert Pocock 11,365 22.3 Increase 1.9
UKIP Marcus Brown¹⁰ 7,489 14.7 Increase 11.6
Liberal Democrat Richard Brighton-Knight 2,627 5.2 Decrease 12.9
Green David Ratcliff 1,426 2.8 Increase 1.7
Ubuntu Mark Sleigh 165 0.3 N/A
Majority 16,417 32.3 Decrease 1.3
Turnout 50,854 67.85 Decrease 0.5

Vote Leave: 50.31

Sitting MP: Andrew Mitchell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

21. Walsall North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12395 (34.3%)
Labour: 13385 (37%)
Lib Dem: 4754 (13.1%)
BNP: 2930 (8.1%)
UKIP: 1737 (4.8%)
Christian: 144 (0.4%)
Others: 842 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 990 (2.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour David Winnick 14,392 39.0 +2.0
Conservative Douglas Hansen-Luke⁹ 12,455 33.8 −0.5
UKIP Elizabeth Hazell¹⁰ 8,122 22.0 +17.2
Liberal Democrat Nigel Jones 840 2.3 −10.8
TUSC Peter Smith 545 1.5 −0.8
Green Mike Harrison¹¹ 529 1.4 N/A
Majority 1,937 5.2 +2.5
Turnout 36,883 55.0 −0.5

Leave Vote: 70.12%

Sitting MP: David Winnick (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

David Winnick is toast. He nearly lost last time. His only chance of survival is if UKIP’s vote remains largely intact, but it’s unlikely to.

22. Walsall South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14456 (35.4%)
Labour: 16211 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 5880 (14.4%)
UKIP: 3449 (8.4%)
Christian: 482 (1.2%)
Others: 404 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1755 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Valerie Vaz 19,740 47.2 +7.5
Conservative Sue Arnold⁵ 13,733 32.8 -2.5
UKIP Derek Bennett⁶ 6,540 15.6 +7.2
Green Charlotte Fletcher⁷ 1,149 2.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Joel Kenrick⁸ 676 1.6 -12.8
Majority 6,007 14.4 +10.1
Turnout 41,838 61.8 -1.3

Vote Leave: 61.44%

Sitting MP: Valerie Vaz (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Revised: Lab hold

A safer prospect for Labour than the other Walsall seat, but nevertheless this is firmly in the Conservatives’ sights. Again it will be the UKIP vote which determines who wins.

23. Warley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9484 (24.8%)
Labour: 20240 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 5929 (15.5%)
UKIP: 2617 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 10756 (28.1%

2015 Result:
Labour John Spellar 22,012 58.2 Increase 5.3
Conservative Tom Williams 7,310 19.3 Decrease 5.5
UKIP Pete Durnell 6,237 16.5 Increase 9.6
Green Robert Buckman 1,465 3.9 Increase 3.9
Liberal Democrat Catherine Smith 805 2.1 Decrease 13.4
Majority 14,702 38.9
Turnout 37,829 59.3

Vote Leave: 60.93%

Sitting MP: John Spellar (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

24. West Bromwich East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10961 (28.9%)
Labour: 17657 (46.5%)
Lib Dem: 4993 (13.2%)
BNP: 2205 (5.8%)
UKIP: 984 (2.6%)
English Dem: 1150 (3%)
MAJORITY: 6696 (17.6%)

Leave Vote: 66.99%

Sitting MP: Tom Watson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

25. West Bromwich West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10612 (29.3%)
Labour: 16263 (45%)
Lib Dem: 4336 (12%)
BNP: 3394 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1566 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 5651 (15.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Adrian Bailey 16,578 47.3 +2.4
UKIP Graham Eardley 8,836 25.2 +20.9
Conservative Paul Ratner 8,365 23.9 -5.5
Green Mark Redding 697 2.0 +2.0
Liberal Democrat Karen Trench 550 1.6 -10.4
Majority 7,742 22.1

Vote Leave: 68.55%

Sitting MP: Adrian Bailey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

26. Wolverhampton North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11964 (34.3%)
Labour: 14448 (41.4%)
Lib Dem: 4711 (13.5%)
BNP: 2296 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.3%)
Others: 337 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2484 (7.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Emma Reynolds 15,669 46.1 +4.7
Conservative Darren Henry 10,174 29.9 -4.4
UKIP Star Etheridge 6,524 19.2 +15.9
Liberal Democrat Ian Jenkins 935 2.7 -10.8
Green Becky Cooper 701 2.1 +2.1
Majority 5,495 16.2
Turnout 55.7

Leave Vote: 65.01%

Sitting MP: Emma Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Used to be a Tory seat and if there’s a big Tory majority it could be again.

27. Wolverhampton South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9912 (28.6%)
Labour: 16505 (47.6%)
Lib Dem: 5277 (15.2%)
UKIP: 2675 (7.7%)
Independent: 338 (1%)
MAJORITY: 6593 (19%)

2015 Result:
Labour Pat McFadden 18,531 53.3 Increase 5.8
Conservative Suria Photay 7,764 22.3 Decrease 6.2
UKIP Barry Hodgson 7,061 20.3 Increase 12.6
Liberal Democrat Ian Griffiths 798 2.3 Decrease 12.9
Green Geeta Kauldhar⁴ 605 1.7 Increase 1.7
Majority 10,767 31.0 Increase 12.1
Turnout 55.6 Decrease 1.7

Sitting MP: Pat McFadden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

28. Wolverhampton South West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16344 (40.7%)
Labour: 15653 (39%)
Lib Dem: 6430 (16%)
UKIP: 1487 (3.7%)
Others: 246 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 691 (1.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rob Marris 17,374 43.2 Increase 4.2
Conservative Paul Uppal 16,573 41.2 Increase 0.5
UKIP Dave Everett 4,310 10.7 Increase 7.0
Green Andrea Cantrill 1,058 2.6 Increase 2.6
Liberal Democrat Neale Upstone 845 2.1 Decrease 13.9
Independent Brian Booth 49 0.1 Increase 0.1
Majority 801 2.0
Turnout 40,209 66.6

Sitting MP: Rob Marris (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat flips between the two parties and was one of the few Labour gains at the last election. It’s almost certainly going to go back to the Tories on June 8TH.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE