General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 19. Birmingham

Birmingham

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 3, Lab 5

1. Birmingham Edgbaston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15620 (37.6%)
Labour: 16894 (40.6%)
Lib Dem: 6387 (15.4%)
BNP: 1196 (2.9%)
Green: 469 (1.1%)
UKIP: 732 (1.8%)
Christian: 127 (0.3%)
Others: 146 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1274 (3.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gisela Stuart 18,518 44.85 +4.21
Conservative Luke Evans¹² 15,812 38.29 +0.72
UKIP Graham Short¹³ 4,154 10.06 +8.30
Green Philip Simpson 1,371 3.32 +2.19
Liberal Democrat Lee Dargue¹² 1,184 2.87 −12.49
Christian Gabriel Ukandu 163 0.39 +0.08
Independent Henna Rai 91 0.22 N/A
Majority 2,706 6.55 +3.49
Turnout 41,293 62.96 +2.34

Leave Vote: 43.75%

Sitting MP: Gisela Stuart (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

The Tories have had their eye on this seat ever since 1997 but Gisela Stuart proved very difficult to shift. She’s standing down so I’d say this was a very likely Tory gain.

2. Birmingham Erdington

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11592 (32.6%)
Labour: 14869 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 5742 (16.2%)
BNP: 1815 (5.1%)
UKIP: 842 (2.4%)
Christian: 217 (0.6%)
Independent: 240 (0.7%)
Others: 229 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 3277 (9.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jack Dromey 15,824 45.6 Increase 3.8
Conservative Robert Alden 10,695 30.8 Decrease 1.8
UKIP Andrew Garcarz 6,040 17.4 Increase 15.0
Liberal Democrat Ann Holtom 965 2.8 Decrease 13.4
Green Joe Belcher 948 2.7 N/A
TUSC Ted Woodley 212 0.6 N/A
Majority 5,129 14.8 Increase 5.6
Turnout 34,684 53.3 Decrease 0.2

Leave Vote: 58.48%

Sitting MP: Jack Dromey (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

I think Jack Dromey is in real trouble here. A big leave vote, combined with nearly 7,000 UKIP votes up for grabs and the Tories must be hoping they can pull this one off.

3. Birmingham Hall Green

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7320 (15%)
Labour: 16039 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 11988 (24.6%)
UKIP: 950 (1.9%)
Respect: 12240 (25.1%)
Independent: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3799 (7.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Roger Godsiff 28,147 59.8 +24.9
Conservative James Bird 8,329 17.7 +2.7
Liberal Democrat Jerry Evans 5,459 11.6 —13.0
Green Elly Stanton 2,200 4.7 N/A
UKIP Rashpal Mondair 2,131 4.5 +2.6
Respect Shiraz Peer 780 1.7 —23.5
Majority 19,818 42.1 Increase 34.3
Turnout 47,046 61.6 Decrease 2.0

Leave Vote: 42.17%

Sitting MP: Rodger Godsiff (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Birmingham Hodge Hill

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4936 (11.6%)
Labour: 22077 (52%)
Lib Dem: 11775 (27.7%)
BNP: 2333 (5.5%)
UKIP: 714 (1.7%)
Others: 637 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 10302 (24.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Liam Byrne 28,069 68.4 Increase 16.4
Conservative Kieran Mullan 4,707 11.5 Decrease 0.2
UKIP Albert Duffen 4,651 11.3 Increase 9.7
Liberal Democrat Phil Bennion 2,624 6.4 Decrease 21.3
Green Chris Nash 835 2.0 N/A
Communist Andy Chaffer 153 0.4 Increase 0.4
Majority 23,362 56.9 Increase 32.6
Turnout 41,039 54.5 Decrease 1.1

Leave Vote: 50.41%

Sitting MP: Liam Byrne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Birmingham Ladywood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4277 (11.9%)
Labour: 19950 (55.7%)
Lib Dem: 9845 (27.5%)
Green: 859 (2.4%)
UKIP: 902 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 10105 (28.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Shabana Mahmood 26,444 73.6 Increase 18.0
Conservative Isabel Sigmac 4,576 12.7 Increase 0.8
UKIP Clair Braund 1,805 5.0 Increase 2.5
Green Margaret Okole 1,501 4.2 Increase 1.8
Liberal Democrat Shazad Iqbal 1,374 3.8 Decrease 23.6
Liberty GB Tim Burton 216 0.6 N/A
Majority 21,868 60.9 Increase 32.7
Turnout 35,916 52.7 Increase 4

Sitting MP: Shabana Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Birmingham Northfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14059 (33.6%)
Labour: 16841 (40.3%)
Lib Dem: 6550 (15.7%)
BNP: 2290 (5.5%)
Green: 406 (1%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.3%)
Others: 305 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2782 (6.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Richard Burden 17,673 41.6 Increase 1.3
Conservative Rachel Maclean 15,164 35.7 Increase 2.1
UKIP Keith Rowe 7,106 16.7 Increase 13.5
Liberal Democrat Steve Haynes 1,349 3.2 Decrease 12.5
Green Anna Masters¹⁰ 1,169 2.8 Increase 1.8
Majority 2,509 5.9
Turnout 42,461 59.4 Increase 0.8

Sitting MP: Richard Burden (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This used to be a Conservative seat and it’s about to be again.

7. Birmingham Perry Bar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8960 (21.3%)
Labour: 21142 (50.3%)
Lib Dem: 9234 (22%)
UKIP: 1675 (4%)
Christian: 507 (1.2%)
Others: 527 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 11908 (28.3%)

Leave Vote: 59.40%

2015 Result:
Labour Khalid Mahmood 23,697 57.4 Increase 7.1
Conservative Charlotte Hodivala 8,869 21.5 Increase 0.2
UKIP Harjinder Singh 5,032 12.2 Increase 8.2
Liberal Democrat Arjun Singh 2,001 4.8 Decrease 17.1
Green James Lovatt 1,330 3.2 N/A
TUSC Robert Punton 331 0.8 N/A
Majority 14,828 35.9
Turnout 41,260 59.0

Leave Vote: 54.14%

Sitting MP: Khalid Mahmood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

8. Birmingham Selly Oak

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14468 (31.1%)
Labour: 17950 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 10371 (22.3%)
BNP: 1820 (3.9%)
Green: 664 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1131 (2.4%)
Christian: 159 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3482 (7.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Steve McCabe 21,584 47.7 Increase 9.1
Conservative Alex Boulter⁷ 13,137 29.0 Decrease 2.1
UKIP Steven Brookes 5,755 12.7 Increase 10.3
Liberal Democrat Colin Green⁸ 2,517 5.6 Decrease 16.7
Green Clare Thomas 2,301 5.1 Increase 3.7
Majority 8,447 18.6
Turnout 45,294 60.3

Leave Vote: 45.74%

Sitting MP: Stephen McCabe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

9. Birmingham Yardley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7836 (19.2%)
Labour: 13160 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 16162 (39.6%)
BNP: 2153 (5.3%)
UKIP: 1190 (2.9%)
Others: 349 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3002 (7.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Jess Phillips 17,129 41.5 Increase 9.4
Liberal Democrat John Hemming 10,534 25.6 Decrease 14.0
UKIP Paul Clayton 6,637 16.1 Increase 13.2
Conservative Arun Photay 5,760 14.0 Decrease 5.2
Green Grant Bishop 698 1.7 Increase 1.7
Respect Teval Stephens 187 0.5 N/A
TUSC Eamonn Flynn 135 0.3 N/A
Social Democratic Peter Johnson 71 0.2 N/A
Majority 6,595 16.0
Turnout 41,313 57.3 Increase 0.7

Leave Vote: 60.61%

Sitting MP: Jess Phillips (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

John Hemming is restanding and his result was certainly better than his LibDem colleagues. But given this is a Leave seat, I can’t see him rising from the ashes,

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE