General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 23. Shropshire

SHROPSHIRE

Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5

1. Ludlow

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25720 (52.8%)
Labour: 3272 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 15971 (32.8%)
BNP: 1016 (2.1%)
Green: 447 (0.9%)
UKIP: 2127 (4.4%)
Others: 179 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9749 (20%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Philip Dunne 26,093 54.3 +1.5
UKIP David Kelly¹⁰ 7,164 14.9 +10.5
Liberal Democrat Charlotte Barnes¹¹ 6,469 13.5 -19.3
Labour Simon Slater¹² 5,902 12.3 +5.6
Green Janet Phillips¹³ 2,435 5.1 +4.1
Majority 18,929 39.4
Turnout 48,063 72.4

Leave Vote: 57.88%

Sitting MP: Philip Dunne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. North Shropshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26692 (51.5%)
Labour: 9406 (18.1%)
Lib Dem: 10864 (20.9%)
BNP: 1667 (3.2%)
Green: 808 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2432 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 15828 (30.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Owen Paterson 27,041 51.5 0
Labour Graeme Currie 10,457 19.9 +1.8
UKIP Andrea Allen⁷ 9,262 17.6 +12.9
Liberal Democrat Tom Thornhill 3,184 6.0 -14.9
Green Duncan Kerr⁸ 2,575 4.9 +3.3
Majority 16,584 31.6 0
Turnout 52,483 67.6 +0.9

Leave Vote: 59.85%

Sitting MP: Owen Paterson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Shrewsbury & Atcham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23313 (43.9%)
Labour: 10915 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 15369 (29%)
BNP: 1168 (2.2%)
Green: 565 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1627 (3.1%)
Others: 88 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7944 (15%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Daniel Kawczynski 24,628 45.5 +1.6
Labour Laura Davies 15,063 27.8 +7.3
UKIP Suzanne Evans 7,813 14.4 +11.4
Liberal Democrat Christine Tinker 4,268 7.9 -21.1
Green Emma Bullard 2,247 4.2 +3.1
Children of the Atom Stirling McNeillie 83 0.2 N/A
Majority 9,565 17.7
Turnout 54,102 70.8 +1.0

Leave Vote: 52.92%

Sitting MP: Daniel Kawczynski (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Telford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14996 (36.3%)
Labour: 15974 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6399 (15.5%)
BNP: 1513 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2428 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 978 (2.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Lucy Allan⁸ 16,094 39.6 +3.3
Labour David Wright 15,364 37.8 −0.9
UKIP Denis Allen 7,330 18.0 +12.2
Green Peter Hawkins 930 2.3 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Ian Croll 927 2.3 −13.2
Majority 730 1.8
Turnout 40,645 61.4

Sitting MP: Lucy Allan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Very narrow win for Lucy Allan last time, but she has proved to be a controversial choice. There were moves to deselect her. Her fate will be determined by national swings rather than local ones.

5. The Wrekin

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21922 (47.7%)
Labour: 12472 (27.1%)
Lib Dem: 8019 (17.4%)
BNP: 1505 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 9450 (20.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Pritchard 22,579 49.7 +2.0
Labour Katrina Gilman 11,836 26.0 -1.1
UKIP Jill Seymour 7,620 16.8 +12.3
Liberal Democrat Rod Keyes 1,959 4.3 -13.1
Green Cath Edwards¹⁰ 1,443 3.2 +3.2
Majority 10,743 23.6 +3.0
Turnout 45,437 68.9 -1.2

Leave Vote: 59.32%

Sitting MP: Mark Pritchard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE