CHESHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8, Lab 3

1. City of Chester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18995 (40.6%)
Labour: 16412 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 8930 (19.1%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1225 (2.6%)
English Dem: 594 (1.3%)
Independent: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 2583 (5.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Chris Matheson 22,118 43.2 +8.2
Conservative Stephen Mosley 22,025 43.1 +2.5
UKIP Steve Ingram 4,148 8.1 +5.5
Liberal Democrat Bob Thompson 2,870 5.6 -13.5
Majority 93 0.2
Turnout 51,161 70.8 +2.9

Leave Vote: 42.28%

Sitting MP: Chris Matheson (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat swings with the political wind. And it will again this time.

2. Congleton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23250 (45.8%)
Labour: 8747 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 16187 (31.9%)
UKIP: 2147 (4.2%)
Independent: 276 (0.5%)
Others: 173 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7063 (13.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Fiona Bruce 27,164 53.3 +7.5
Labour Darren Price 10,391 20.4 +3.2
UKIP Lee Slaughter 6,922 13.6 +9.4
Liberal Democrat Peter Hirst 4,623 9.1 −22.8
Green Alec Heath 1,876 3.7 +3.7
Majority 16,773 32.9 +19
Turnout 50,976 70.4 +1.5

Vote Leave: 52.61%

Sitting MP: Fiona Bruce (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Crewe & Nantwich

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23420 (45.8%)
Labour: 17374 (34%)
Lib Dem: 7656 (15%)
BNP: 1043 (2%)
UKIP: 1414 (2.8%)
Independent: 177 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6046 (11.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Edward Timpson 22,445 45.0 -0.9
Labour Adrian Heald 18,825 37.7 +3.7
UKIP Richard Lee 7,252 14.5 +11.8
Liberal Democrat Roy Wood 1,374 2.8 -12.2
Majority 3,620 7.3 -4.5
Turnout 49,896 67.4 +1.5

Vote Leave: 60.3%

Sitting MP: Edward Timpson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Edward Timpson has cemented himself into this seat since he won the byelection and I think Labour are going to find it very hard to shift him.

4. Eddisbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23472 (51.7%)
Labour: 9794 (21.6%)
Lib Dem: 10217 (22.5%)
UKIP: 1931 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13255 (29.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Antoinette Sandbach 24,167 51.0 −0.6
Labour James Laing 11,193 23.6 +2.1
UKIP Rob Millington 5,778 12.2 +8.0
Liberal Democrat Ian Priestner 4,289 9.1 −13.4
Green Andrew Garman 1,624 3.4 N/A
CISTA George Antar 301 0.6 N/A
Majority 12,974 27.4
Turnout 47,352 69.0

Leave Vote: 52.17%

Sitting MP: Antoinette Sandbach (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Ellesmere Port & Neston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15419 (34.9%)
Labour: 19750 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 6663 (15.1%)
UKIP: 1619 (3.7%)
Independent: 782 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4331 (9.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Justin Madders 22,316 47.8 +3.1
Conservative Katherine Fletcher 16,041 34.3 −0.5
UKIP Jonathan Starkey 5,594 12.0 +8.3
Liberal Democrat Trish Derraugh 1,563 3.3 −11.7
Green Michelle Palmer 990 2.1 N/A
TUSC Felicity Dowling 192 0.4 N/A
Independent John Dyer 31 0.1 N/A
Majority 6,275 13.4
Turnout 46,727 68.6

Leave Vote: 58.34%

Sitting MP: Justin Madders (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

A difficult one to call. In a Tory landslide this seat might possibly go Conservative, but I’d say it’s less than 50-50.

6. Halton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 8339 (20.2%)
Labour: 23843 (57.7%)
Lib Dem: 5718 (13.8%)
BNP: 1563 (3.8%)
Green: 647 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1228 (3%)
MAJORITY: 15504 (37.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Derek Twigg 28,292 62.8 +5.2
Conservative Matthew Lloyd 8,007 17.8 −2.4
UKIP Glyn Redican 6,333 14.1 +11.1
Liberal Democrat Ryan Bate 1,097 2.4 −11.4
Green David Melvin 1,017 2.3 +0.7
Independent Vic Turton 277 0.6 +0.6
Majority 20,285 45.1
Turnout 45,023 61.8

Leave Vote: 57.67%

Sitting MP: Derek Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

7. Macclesfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23503 (47%)
Labour: 10164 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 11544 (23.1%)
Green: 840 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1418 (2.8%)
Others: 2590 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 11959 (23.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Rutley 26,063 52.5 +5.6
Labour Tim Roca 11,252 22.7 +2.4
UKIP Adrian Howard 6,037 12.2 +9.3
Liberal Democrat Neil Christian 3,842 7.7 −15.3
Green Joan Plimmer 2,404 4.8 +3.2
Majority 14,811 29.9
Turnout 49,598 69.3

Leave Vote: 47.18%

Sitting MP: David Rutley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Tatton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24687 (54.6%)
Labour: 7803 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 10200 (22.6%)
Independent: 2243 (5%)
Others: 298 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 14487 (32%)

2015 Result:
Conservative George Osborne 26,552 58.6 Increase 4.0
Labour David Pinto-Duschinsky 8,311 18.3 Increase 1.1
UKIP Stuart Hutton 4,871 10.8 N/A
Liberal Democrat Gareth Wilson 3,850 8.5 Decrease 14.1
Green Tina Rothery 1,714 3.8 N/A
Majority 18,241 40.3 Increase 8.3
Turnout 45,298 70.2 Decrease 0.4

Leave Vote: 45.63%

Sitting MP: George Osborne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Warrington North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13364 (30.2%)
Labour: 20135 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 9196 (20.8%)
Independent: 1516 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 6771 (15.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Helen Jones 21,720 47.8 +2.3
Conservative Richard Short 12,797 28.2 -2.1
UKIP Trevor Nicholls 7,757 17.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Stefan Krizanac 1,881 4.1 −16.7
Green Sarah Hayes 1,264 2.8 N/A
Majority 8,923 19.6
Turnout 45,419 62.5

Leave Vote: 58.07%

Sitting MP: Helen Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

10. Warrington South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19641 (35.8%)
Labour: 18088 (33%)
Lib Dem: 15094 (27.5%)
Green: 427 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1624 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1553 (2.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Mowat 25,928 43.7 +7.9
Labour Nick Bent 23,178 39.1 +6.1
UKIP Mal Lingley 4,909 8.3 +5.3
Liberal Democrat Bob Barr 3,335 5.6 -21.9
Green Stephanie Davies 1,765 3.0 +2.2
TUSC Kevin Bennett 238 0.4 +0.4
Majority 2,750 4.6 +1.8
Turnout 59,353 69.4 +1.2

Sitting MP: David Mowat (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Weaver Vale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16953 (38.5%)
Labour: 15962 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8196 (18.6%)
BNP: 1063 (2.4%)
Green: 338 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1018 (2.3%)
Independent: 270 (0.6%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 991 (2.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Graham Evans 20,227 43.2 +4.6
Labour Julia Tickridge 19,421 41.4 +5.2
UKIP Amos Wright 4,547 9.7 +7.4
Liberal Democrat Mary Di Mauro 1,395 3.0 −15.7
Green Chris Copeman 1,183 2.5 +1.8
TUSC Joseph Whyte 94 0.2 +0.2
Majority 806 1.7 -0.6
Turnout 46,867 68.5 -2.4

Leave Vote: 50.55%

Sitting MP: Graham Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Two wafer thin majorities for Graham Evans. I suspect he’ll enjoy something north of 4,000 this time.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE