General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 27. Lancashire

LANCASHIRE

Seats: 16
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 12, Lab 3, LibDem 1
Revised: Con 12, Lab 4

1. Blackburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11895 (26.1%)
Labour: 21751 (47.8%)
Lib Dem: 6918 (15.2%)
BNP: 2158 (4.7%)
UKIP: 942 (2.1%)
Independent: 238 (0.5%)
Others: 1597 (3.5%)
MAJORITY: 9856 (21.7%)

2015 Result:
Kate Hollern Labour 24,762 56.3 +8.5
Bob Eastwood Conservative 12,002 27.3 +1.1
Dayle Taylor UKIP 6,280 14.3 +12.2
Gordon Lishman Liberal Democrat 955 2.2 −13.0
Majority: 12,760 (29.0%) +8.3
Swing: +3.7% from Con to Lab

Leave Vote: 55.9%

Sitting MP: Kate Hollern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

2. Blackpool North & Cleveleys

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16964 (41.8%)
Labour: 14814 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 5400 (13.3%)
BNP: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1659 (4.1%)
Others: 198 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 2150 (5.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Paul Maynard 17,508 44.4 +2.7
Labour Samuel Rushworth 14,168 36.0 -0.5
UKIP Simon Noble 5,823 14.8 +10.7
Liberal Democrat Sue Close 948 2.4 -10.9
Green John Warnock 889 2.3 +2.3
Northern James Walsh 57 0.1 0.1
Majority 3,340 8.5 +3.2
Turnout 39,393 63.1 +1.5

Leave Vote: 66.9%

Sitting MP: Paul Maynard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Blackpool South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12597 (35.8%)
Labour: 14449 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5082 (14.4%)
BNP: 1482 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1352 (3.8%)
Others: 230 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1852 (5.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Gordon Marsden 13,548 41.8 +0.7
Conservative Peter Anthony 10,963 33.8 −2.0
UKIP Peter Wood 5,613 17.3 +13.5
Green Duncan Royle 841 2.6 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Bill Greene 743 2.3 −12.2
Independent Andy Higgins 655 2.0 +2.0
Independent Lawrence Chard 73 0.2 +0.2
Majority 2,585 8.0 +2.7
Turnout 32,436 56.5 +0.7

Leave Vote: 67.8%
Sitting MP: Gordon Marsden (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

If there’s anything like a certain gain for the Conservatives in the North West, this is it.

4. Burnley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6950 (16.6%)
Labour: 13114 (31.3%)
Lib Dem: 14932 (35.7%)
BNP: 3747 (9%)
UKIP: 929 (2.2%)
Independent: 1876 (4.5%)
Others: 297 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1818 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Julie Cooper 14,951 37.6 +6.3
Liberal Democrat Gordon Birtwistle 11,707 29.5 −6.2
UKIP Tom Commis 6,864 17.3 +15.0
Conservative Sarah Cockburn-Price 5,374 13.5 −3.1
Green Mike Hargreaves 850 2.1 N/A
Majority 3,244 8.2
Turnout 39,746 61.6

Leave Vote: 64.7%

Sitting MP: Julie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Lib Dem gain
Revised: Lab hold

Gordon Birtwhistle surprised everyone by taking this seat in 2010, and he had the mother of all struggles to keep it in 2015. He failed then, but he might just regain it this time. The only fly in the ointment is the high Leave vote. I seem to remember that Birtwhistle is a bit of a LibDem Eurosceptic, though. I’m chancing my arm a bit here but I think he could do it, but it may come down to a few hundred votes.

5. Chorley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18922 (38%)
Labour: 21515 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 6957 (14%)
UKIP: 2021 (4.1%)
Independent: 359 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2593 (5.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Lindsay Hoyle 23,322 45.1 +1.9
Conservative Robert Loughenbury 18,792 36.3 −1.7
UKIP Mark Smith 6,995 13.5 +9.5
Liberal Democrat Stephen Fenn 1,354 2.6 −11.4
Green Alistair Straw 1,111 2.1 N/A
Independent Adrian Maudsley 138 0.3 N/A
Majority 4,530 8.8
Turnout 51,712 69.2

Leave Vote: 56.7%

Sitting MP: Lindsay Hoyle (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Not a safe seat, and has been Tory in recent history. However, Lindsay Hoyle is a popular MP locally and he may be more difficult to shift than some think. However, if my predictions on the UKIP vote happen and the Labour vote diminishes in any way, I’m afraid there will have to be a different successor to John Bercow. Which would be a shame.

6. Fylde

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22826 (52.2%)
Labour: 8624 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 9641 (22.1%)
Green: 654 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1945 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 13185 (30.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Menzies 21,406 49.1 −3.1
Labour Jed Sullivan 8,182 18.8 −1.0
UKIP Paul White 5,569 12.8 +8.3
Independent Mike Hill 5,166 11.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Freddie van Mierlo 1,623 3.7 −18.3
Green Bob Dennett 1,381 3.2 +1.7
Northern Elizabeth Clarkson 230 0.5 N/A
Majority 13,224 30.4 +0.2
Turnout 43,557 66.3 +0.0

Leave Vote: 56.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Menzies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Hyndburn

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14441 (33.8%)
Labour: 17531 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 5033 (11.8%)
BNP: 2137 (5%)
Green: 463 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1481 (3.5%)
English Dem: 413 (1%)
Independent: 378 (0.9%)
Others: 795 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3090 (7.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Graham Jones 18,076 42.1 +1.1
Conservative Kevin Horkin 13,676 31.9 -2.0
UKIP Janet Brown 9,154 21.3 +17.9
Green Kerry Gormley 1,122 2.6 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Alison Firth 859 2.0 -9.8
Majority 4,400 10.3
Turnout 42,887 62.8 -0.7

Leave Vote: 65.8%

Sitting MP: Graham Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

A traditional Tory/Labour marginal the Tories last held this seat in the 1980s and expected to win it back in 2010. Another of those seats that goes Tory in a very good year.

8. Lancaster & Fleetwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15404 (36.1%)
Labour: 15071 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8167 (19.1%)
BNP: 938 (2.2%)
Green: 1888 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1020 (2.4%)
Independent: 213 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 333 (0.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Cat Smith 17,643 42.3 +7.0
Conservative Eric Ollerenshaw 16,378 39.2 +3.2
UKIP Matthew Atkins 4,060 9.7 +7.3
Green Chris Coates 2,093 5.0 +0.6
Liberal Democrat Robin Long 1,390 3.3 −15.8
Northern Harold Elletson 174 0.4 +0.4
Majority 1,265 3.0
Turnout 41,738 68.6 +7.5

Leave Vote: 52.0%

Sitting MP: Cat Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This was won by the Corbynista MP Cat Smith in 2015 but her tenure is to be short lived. Previous MP Eric Ollerenshaw is fighting the seat again.

9. Morecambe & Lunesdale

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18035 (41.5%)
Labour: 17169 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 5791 (13.3%)
Green: 598 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1843 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 866 (2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Morris 19,691 45.5 +4.0
Labour Amina Lone 15,101 34.9 −4.6
UKIP Steven Ogden 5,358 12.4 +8.1
Liberal Democrat Matthew Severn 1,612 3.7 −9.6
Green Phil Chandler 1,395 3.2 +1.8
Independent Michael Dawson 85 0.2 +0.2
Majority 4,590 10.6 +8.6
Turnout 43,242 65.0 +2.0

Leave Vote: 58.2

Sitting MP: David Morris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Pendle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17512 (38.9%)
Labour: 13927 (30.9%)
Lib Dem: 9095 (20.2%)
BNP: 2894 (6.4%)
UKIP: 1476 (3.3%)
Christian: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3585 (8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Stephenson 20,978 47.2 +8.3
Labour Azhar Ali 15,525 34.9 +4.0
UKIP Michael Waddington 5,415 12.2 +8.9
Liberal Democrat Graham Roach 1,487 3.3 −16.8
Green Laura Fisk 1,043 2.3 +2.3
Majority 5,453 12.3 +4.3
Turnout 44,448 68.7 +0.9

Leave Vote: 63.2%

Sitting MP: Andrew Stephenson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. Preston

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7060 (21.7%)
Labour: 15668 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7935 (24.4%)
UKIP: 1462 (4.5%)
Christian: 272 (0.8%)
Independent: 108 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7733 (23.8%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Mark Hendrick 18,755 56.0 +7.8
Conservative Richard Holden 6,688 20.0 −1.7
UKIP James Barker 5,139 15.4 +10.9
Green Gemma Christie 1,643 4.9 N/A
Liberal Democrat Jo Barton 1,244 3.7 −20.7
Majority 12,067 36.1 +12.3
Turnout 33,469 55.8 +3.8

Leave Vote: 55.7%

Sitting MP: Mark Hendrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

12. Ribble Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26298 (50.3%)
Labour: 11529 (22%)
Lib Dem: 10732 (20.5%)
UKIP: 3496 (6.7%)
Others: 232 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 14769 (28.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Evans 25,404 48.6 −1.7
Labour David Hinder 11,798 22.6 +0.5
UKIP Shirley Parkinson 8,250 15.8 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Jackie Pearcey 2,756 5.3 −15.2
Green Graham Sowter 2,193 4.2 +4.2
Independent David Brass 1,498 2.9 N/A
Independent Grace Astley 288 0.6 N/A
Independent Tony Johnson 56 0.1 −0.3
Majority 13,606 26.0 −2.3
Turnout 52,243 67.1 +0.1

Leave Vote: 58.7%

Sitting MP: Nigel Evans (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Rossendale & Darwen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19691 (41.8%)
Labour: 15198 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 8541 (18.1%)
UKIP: 1617 (3.4%)
English Dem: 663 (1.4%)
Independent: 113 (0.2%)
Others: 1305 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4493 (9.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jake Berry 22,847 46.6 +4.8
Labour Will Straw 17,193 35.1 +2.8
UKIP Clive Balchin 6,862 14.0 +10.6
Green Karen Pollard-Rylance 1,046 2.1 N/A
Liberal Democrat Afzal Anwar 806 1.6 −16.5
Independent Kevin Scranage 122 0.2 N/A
TUSC Simon Thomas 103 0.2 N/A
Northern Shaun Hargreaves 45 0.1 N/A
Majority 5,654 11.5 +2.0
Turnout 49,024 66.4 +1.8

Leave Vote: 58.9%

Sitting MP: Jake Berry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

14. South Ribble

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23396 (45.5%)
Labour: 17842 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 7271 (14.1%)
BNP: 1054 (2%)
UKIP: 1895 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5554 (10.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Seema Kennedy 24,313 46.4 +1.0
Labour Veronica Bennett 18,368 35.1 +0.4
UKIP David Gallagher 7,377 14.1 +10.4
Liberal Democrat Sue McGuire 2,312 4.4 −9.7
Majority 5,945 11.4 +0.6
Turnout 52,370 68.5 +0.6

Leave Vote: 56.6%

Sitting MP: Seema Kennedy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

15. West Lancashire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17540 (36.2%)
Labour: 21883 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 6573 (13.6%)
Green: 485 (1%)
UKIP: 1775 (3.7%)
Others: 217 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4343 (9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Rosie Cooper 24,474 49.3 +4.1
Conservative Paul Greenall 16,114 32.4 −3.7
UKIP Jack Sen1 6,058 12.2 +8.5
Green Ben Basson 1,582 3.2 +2.2
Liberal Democrat Daniel Lewis 1,298 2.6 −10.9
Independent David Braid 150 0.3 −0.1
Majority 8,360 16.8 +7.8
Turnout 49,676 70.0 +6.2

Leave Vote: 55.0%

Sitting MP: Rosie Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ken Hind held this seat for the Tories from 1983-92. Might fall in a big majority, but I’ll stick with a Labour gain for now.

16. Wyre & Preston North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26877 (52.4%)
Labour: 10932 (21.3%)
Lib Dem: 11033 (21.5%)
UKIP: 2466 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 15844 (30.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ben Wallace 26,528 53.2 +0.8
Labour Ben Whittingham 12,377 24.8 +3.5
UKIP Kate Walsh 6,577 13.2 +8.4
Liberal Democrat John Potter 2,712 5.4 -16.1
Green Anne Power 1,699 3.4 +3.4
Majority 14,151 28.4 -2.5
Turnout 49,893 70.6 -1.5

Leave Vote: 54.2%

Sitting MP: Ben Wallace (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE