General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 28. Cambridgeshire

CAMBRIDGESHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, LibDem 1

1. Cambridge

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12829 (25.6%)
Labour: 12174 (24.3%)
Lib Dem: 19621 (39.1%)
Green: 3804 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.4%)
Independent: 145 (0.3%)
Others: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 6792 (13.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Daniel Zeichner 18,646 36.0 +11.7
Liberal Democrat Julian Huppert 18,047 34.9 −4.3
Conservative Chamali Fernando 8,117 15.7 −9.9
Green Rupert Read 4,109 7.9 +0.3
UKIP Patrick O’Flynn 2,668 5.2 +2.8
Rebooting Democracy Keith Garrett 187 0.4 N/A
Majority 599 1.2
Turnout 51,774 62.1 −2.9

Leave Vote: 26.3%

Sitting MP: Daniel Zeichner (Lab)
Prediction: LibDem gain

I thought Julian Huppert would hold on last time but I was wrong. He’s standing again and in the biggest Remain constituency in the country, if they don’t take this seat back they can’t hope to win elsewhere. I’d say this was the most nailed on LibDem gain of them all.

2. Huntingdon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26516 (48.9%)
Labour: 5982 (11%)
Lib Dem: 15697 (28.9%)
Green: 652 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3258 (6%)
Independent: 1432 (2.6%)
Others: 729 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 10819 (19.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jonathan Djanogly 29,652 53.0 +4.2
Labour Nik Johnson⁹ 10,248 18.3 +7.3
UKIP Paul Bullen⁹ 9,473 16.9 +10.9
Liberal Democrat Rod Cantrill¹⁰ 4,375 7.8 −21.1
Green Thomas MacLennan¹¹ 2,178 3.9 +2.7
Majority 19,404 34.7
Turnout 67.9

Sitting MP: Jonathan Djanogly
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. North East Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26862 (51.6%)
Labour: 9274 (17.8%)
Lib Dem: 10437 (20%)
BNP: 1747 (3.4%)
UKIP: 2791 (5.4%)
English Dem: 387 (0.7%)
Independent: 566 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 16425 (31.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Barclay 28,524 55.1 +3.5
UKIP Andrew Charalambous 11,650 22.5 +17.1
Labour Ken Rustidge 7,476 14.4 −3.4
Liberal Democrat Lucy Nethsingha 2,314 4.5 −15.6
Green Helen Scott-Daniels 1,816 3.5 N/A
Majority 16,874 32.6
Turnout 51,780 62.4

Leave Vote: 69.4%

Sitting MP: Stephen Barclay (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. North West Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29425 (50.5%)
Labour: 9877 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 12748 (21.9%)
UKIP: 4826 (8.3%)
English Dem: 1407 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 16677 (28.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Shailesh Vara 32,070 52.5 +2.0
UKIP Peter Reeve ⁵ 12,275 20.1 +11.8
Labour Nick Thulbourn ⁵ 10,927 17.9 +0.9
Liberal Democrat Nicholas Sandford⁶ 3,479 5.7 −16.2
Green Nicola Day⁷ 2,159 3.5 +3.5
Christian Peoples Fay Belham 190 0.3 +0.3
Majority 19,795 32.4 +3.8
Turnout 61,100 66.6 +1.0

Leave Vote: 57.0%

Sitting MP: Shailesh Vara (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Peterborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18133 (40.4%)
Labour: 13272 (29.5%)
Lib Dem: 8816 (19.6%)
Green: 523 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3007 (6.7%)
English Dem: 770 (1.7%)
Independent: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4861 (10.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stewart Jackson 18,684 39.7 -0.7
Labour Lisa Forbes 16,759 35.6 +6.1
UKIP Mary Herdman 7,485 15.9 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Darren Fower 1,774 3.8 -15.9
Green Darren Bisby-Boyd 1,218 2.6 +1.4
Liberal Chris Ash 639 1.4 N/A
Independent John Fox 516 1.1 N/A
Majority 1,925 4.1 -6.7
Turnout 47,075 64.9 +1.0

Leave Vote:62.7%

Sitting MP: Stewart Jackson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A very narrow majority and Labour will have ambitions to take back this seat. UKIP are standing down which may help Stewart Jackson’s cause.

6. South Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27995 (47.4%)
Labour: 6024 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 20157 (34.1%)
Green: 1039 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1873 (3.2%)
Independent: 1968 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 7838 (13.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Heidi Allen 31,454 51.1 +3.7
Labour Dan Greef 10,860 17.6 +7.4
Liberal Democrat Sebastian Kindersley 9,368 15.2 −18.9
UKIP Marion Mason 6,010 9.8 +6.6
Green Simon Saggers 3,848 6.3 +4.5
Majority 20,594 33.5 +20.2
Turnout 61,540 73.1 −1.7

Leave Vote: 38.5%

Sitting MP: Heidi Allen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South East Cambridgeshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27629 (48%)
Labour: 4380 (7.6%)
Lib Dem: 21683 (37.6%)
Green: 766 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2138 (3.7%)
Independent: 517 (0.9%)
Others: 489 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 5946 (10.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Lucy Frazer ⁸[n 3] 28,845 48.5 +0.5
Liberal Democrat Jonathan Chatfield ¹⁰ 12,008 20.2 −17.5
Labour Huw Jones ¹¹ 9,013 15.1 +7.5
UKIP Deborah Rennie ¹² 6,593 11.1 +7.4
Green Clive Semmens ¹³ 3,047 5.1 +3.8
Majority 16,837 28.3
Turnout 59,506 70.4 +1.1

Leave Vote: 45.3%

Sitting MP: Lucy Frazer (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE