General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 29. East Sussex

EAST SUSSEX

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 1, Green 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 1, Green 1
Revised: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 1, Green 1

1. Bexhill & Battle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28147 (51.6%)
Labour: 6524 (12%)
Lib Dem: 15267 (28%)
BNP: 1950 (3.6%)
Others: 2699 (4.9%)
MAJORITY: 12880 (23.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Huw Merriman ⁷ 30,245 54.8 +3.2
UKIP Geoffrey Bastin ⁸ 10,170 18.4 N/A
Labour Michelle Thew ⁹ 7,797 14.1 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Rachel Sadler ¹⁰ 4,199 7.6 −20.4
Green Jonathan Kent 2,807 5.1 N/A
Majority 20,075 36.4 +12.8
Turnout 55,218 70.1 +1.1

Leave Vote: 57.2%

Sitting MP: Huw Merriman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Brighton Kemptown

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16217 (38%)
Labour: 14889 (34.9%)
Lib Dem: 7691 (18%)
Green: 2330 (5.5%)
UKIP: 1384 (3.2%)
TUSC: 194 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1328 (3.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Kirby ⁸ 18,428 40.7 +2.7
Labour Nancy Platts⁸ 17,738 39.2 +4.3
UKIP Ian Buchanan⁹ 4,446 9.8 +6.6
Green Davy Jones ⁸ 3,187 7.0 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Paul Chandler¹⁰ 1,365 3.0 −15.0
Socialist (GB) Jacqueline Shodeke ¹¹ 73 0.2 N/A
Independent Matthew Taylor ¹² 69 0.2 N/A
Majority 690 1.5 −1.6
Turnout 45,306 66.8 +2.1

Leave Vote: 43.6%

Sitting MP: Simon Kirby (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

This is one of the seats that I can see Labour gaining, mainly due to the demographics. The UKIP vote is not insignificant here but it will be difficult for Kirby to gain support from UKIP voters bearing in mind he supported the Remain campaign. The Greens have this week announced they will not stand here which could make this a surefire Labour gain, unless their vote goes almost entirely to the LibDems. If the LibDems recover their vote share here from 2010, again it could play into Simon Kirby’s hands.

3. Brighton Pavilion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12275 (23.7%)
Labour: 14986 (28.9%)
Lib Dem: 7159 (13.8%)
Green: 16238 (31.3%)
UKIP: 948 (1.8%)
Others: 228 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1252 (2.4%)

2015 Result:
Green Caroline Lucas 22,871 41.8 +10.5
Labour Purna Sen 14,904 27.3 −1.7
Conservative Clarence Mitchell 12,448 22.8 −0.9
UKIP Nigel Carter 2,724 5.0 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Chris Bowers 1,525 2.8 −11.0
Independent Nick Yeomans 116 0.2 N/A
Socialist (GB) Howard Pilott 88 0.2 N/A
Majority 7,967 14.6 +12.2
Turnout 54,676 71.4 +1.4

Leave Vote: 25.9%

Sitting MP: Caroline Lucas (Green)
Prediction: Green hold

I can see no prospect of anything other than a Green hold here.

4. Eastbourne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (40.7%)
Labour: 2497 (4.8%)
Lib Dem: 24658 (47.3%)
BNP: 939 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1305 (2.5%)
Independent: 1327 (2.5%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3435 (6.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Caroline Ansell 20,934 39.6 -1.1
Liberal Democrat Stephen Lloyd 20,201 38.2 -9.1
UKIP Nigel Jones 6,139 11.6 +9.1
Labour Jake Lambert¹¹ 4,143 7.8 +3.0
Green Andrew Durling¹² 1,351 2.6 +2.6
Independent Paul Howard 139 0.3 +0.3
Majority 733 1.4
Turnout 52,907 67.6

Leave Vote: 57.5%

Sitting MP: Caroline Ansell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Revised LibDem gain

Stephen Lloyd is restanding again despite saying he wouldn’t. But he’s a strong opponent for the Conservatives and should not be underestimated. However, the Leave vote in this constituency was substantial and it is likely Caroline Ansell will eat into the UKIP vote. This is the kind of seat where Theresa May herself may determine the result.

5. Hastings & Rye

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20468 (41.1%)
Labour: 18475 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 7825 (15.7%)
BNP: 1310 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1397 (2.8%)
English Dem: 339 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 1993 (4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Amber Rudd⁶ 22,686 44.5 +3.4
Labour Sarah Owen⁷ 17,890 35.1 −2.0
UKIP Andrew Michael[disambiguation needed] 6,786 13.3 +10.5
Green Jake Bowers 1,951 3.8 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Nick Perry⁸ 1,614 3.2 −12.5
Majority 4,796 9.4 +5.4
Turnout 50,927 68.0 +4.1

Leave Vote: 55.9%

Sitting MP: Amber Rudd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Amber Rudd was heavily tipped to lose last time but she survived with a reasonable majority. She might have vocally supported Remain but her prominence as Home Secretary may do her some favours. I expect an increased majority.

6. Hove

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18294 (36.7%)
Labour: 16426 (33%)
Lib Dem: 11240 (22.6%)
Green: 2568 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.4%)
Independent: 85 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1868 (3.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Peter Kyle¹¹ 22,082 42.3 +9.3
Conservative Graham Cox¹² 20,846 39.9 +3.2
Green Christopher Hawtree¹³ 3,569 6.8 +1.7
UKIP Kevin Smith¹⁴¹⁵ 3,265 6.3 +3.8
Liberal Democrat Peter Lambell¹⁶ 1,861 3.6 −19.0
Independent Jenny Barnard-Langston 322 0.6 N/A
TUSC Dave Hill 144 0.3 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Dame Jon Dixon¹⁷ 125 0.2 N/A
Majority 1,236 2.4
Turnout 52,214 71.0

Sitting MP: Peter Kyle (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This is a really interesting seat. Even though it has a narrow majority, it’s possible it could be held by Labour, even if there is a wider Tory landslide, especially if the Greens stand aside and concentrate their efforts in the Pavilion seat. However, the Momentum controlled Labour Party might not be too keen to camaign for the Blairite Peter Kyle. There’s no big UKIP vote for the Conservative to rely on, either. But logic points to a Tory gain.

7. Lewes

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18401 (36.7%)
Labour: 2508 (5%)
Lib Dem: 26048 (52%)
BNP: 594 (1.2%)
Green: 729 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1728 (3.4%)
Independent: 80 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7647 (15.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Maria Caulfield 19,206 38.0 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Norman Baker 18,123 35.9 -16.1
UKIP Ray Finch 5,427 10.7 +7.3
Labour Lloyd Russell-Moyle 5,000 9.9 +4.9
Green Alfie Stirling 2,784 5.5 +4.1
Majority 1,083 2.1
Turnout 50,540 72.7 -0.2

Leave Vote: 47.1%

Sitting MP: Maria Caulfield (Con)
Prediction: LibDem gain
Revised: Con hold

If Norman Baker were restanding here I’d say the odds of a LibDem gain here were slightly higher than they appear now. Will the Greens give the LibDems a free run? If they do, and the UKIP vote stays strong, I’d say the LibDems will edge it. A lot of caveats there, but this is a tricky one to call.

8. Wealden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31090 (56.6%)
Labour: 5266 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 13911 (25.3%)
Green: 1383 (2.5%)
UKIP: 3319 (6%)
MAJORITY: 17179 (31.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nusrat Ghani 32,508 57.0 +0.5
UKIP Peter Griffiths⁵ 9,541 16.7 +10.7
Labour Solomon Curtis⁶ 6,165 10.8 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Giles Goodall 5,180 9.1 −16.5
Green Mark Smith ⁷ 3,623 6.4 +3.8
Majority 22,967 40.3
Turnout 57,017 71.0

Leave Vote: 52.8%

Sitting MP: Nus Ghani (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE