General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 31. Dorset

DORSET

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 8

1. Bournemouth East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21320 (48.4%)
Labour: 5836 (13.3%)
Lib Dem: 13592 (30.9%)
UKIP: 3027 (6.9%)
Independent: 249 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 7728 (17.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Tobias Ellwood ⁶ 22,060 49.0 +0.8
Labour Peter Stokes 7,448 16.6 +3.4
UKIP David Hughes ⁷ 7,401 16.5 +9.6
Liberal Democrat Jon Nicholas 3,752 8.4 −22.5
Green Alasdair Keddie⁸ 3,263 7.3 N/A
Independent David Ross 903 2.0 N/A
Majority 14,612 32.6 +15.1
Turnout 45,014 62.6 +0.7

Leave Vote: 53.7%

Sitting MP: Tobias Ellwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Bournemouth West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18808 (45.1%)
Labour: 6171 (14.8%)
Lib Dem: 13225 (31.7%)
UKIP: 2999 (7.2%)
Independent: 456 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5583 (13.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Conor Burns 20,155 48.2 +3.1
UKIP Martin Houlden 7,745 18.5 +11.3
Labour David Stokes 7,386 17.7 +2.9
Liberal Democrat Mike Plummer 3,281 7.9 -23.9
Green Elizabeth McManus 3,107 7.4 +7.4
Patria Dick Franklin 99 0.2 +0.2
Majority 12,410 29.7 +16.3
Turnout 41,767 58.0 -0.1

Leave Vote: 57.7%

Sitting MP: Conor Burns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Christchurch

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27888 (56.4%)
Labour: 4849 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 12478 (25.3%)
UKIP: 4201 (8.5%)
MAJORITY: 15410 (31.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Christopher Chope 28,887 58.1 +1.7
UKIP Robin Grey 10,663 21.5 +13.0
Labour Andrew Satherley 4,745 9.5 -0.3
Liberal Democrat Andy Canning¹³ 3,263 6.6 -18.7
Green Shona Dunn ¹⁴ 2,149 4.3 +4.3
Majority 18,224 36.7 +5.5
Turnout 49,707 71.7 -0.1

Leave Vote: 60.0%

Sitting MP: Christopher Chope (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Mid Dorset & North Poole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20831 (44.5%)
Labour: 2748 (5.9%)
Lib Dem: 21100 (45.1%)
UKIP: 2109 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 269 (0.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Michael Tomlinson 23,639 50.8 +6.3
Liberal Democrat Vikki Slade 13,109 28.2 −16.9
UKIP Richard Turner 5,663 12.2 +7.7
Labour Patrick Canavan⁷ 2,767 6.0 +0.1
Green Mark Chivers⁸ 1,321 2.8 N/A
Majority 10,530 22.6 +22
Turnout 46,499 72.5 +8.1

Leave Vote: 57.08%

Sitting MP: Michael Tomlinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. North Dorset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27640 (51.1%)
Labour: 2910 (5.4%)
Lib Dem: 20015 (37%)
Green: 546 (1%)
UKIP: 2812 (5.2%)
Others: 218 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7625 (14.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Simon Hoare⁴ 30,227 56.6 +5.6
UKIP Steve Unwin⁵ 9,109 17.1 +11.9
Liberal Democrat Hugo Miéville⁶ 6,226 11.7 -25.3
Labour Kim Fendley⁷ 4,785 9.0 +3.6
Green Richard Barrington ⁸ 3,038 5.7 +4.7
Majority 21,118 39.6 +25.5
Turnout 53,385 71.6 -1.9

Leave Vote: 56.6%

Sitting MP: Simon Hoare (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Poole

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22532 (47.5%)
Labour: 6041 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 14991 (31.6%)
BNP: 1188 (2.5%)
UKIP: 2507 (5.3%)
Independent: 177 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7541 (15.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Robert Syms 23,745 50.1 +2.6
UKIP David Young¹⁶ 7,956 16.8 +11.5
Labour Helen Rosser 6,102 12.9 +0.1
Liberal Democrat Philip Eades 5,572 11.8 -19.8
Green Adrian Oliver¹⁷ 2,198 4.6 +4.6
The Party for Poole People Ltd.¹⁸ Mark Howell¹⁹ 1,766 3.7 +3.7
Independent Ian Northover 54 0.1 +0.1
Majority 15,789 33.3
Turnout 47,393 65.3 -8.1

Leave Vote: 57.4%

Sitting MP: Robert Syms (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South Dorset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22667 (45.1%)
Labour: 15224 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 9557 (19%)
Green: 595 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2034 (4%)
Others: 233 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7443 (14.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Drax 23,756 48.7 +3.6
Labour Simon Bowkett 11,762 24.2 -6.1
UKIP Malcolm Shakesby¹⁰ 7,304 15.0 +11.0
Liberal Democrat Howard Legg¹¹ 2,901 6.0 -13.0
Green Jane Burnet¹² 2,275 4.7 +3.5
Independent Mervyn Stewkesbury 435 0.9
Movement for Active Democracy Andy Kirkwood 164 0.3 -0.2
Majority 11,994 24.7
Turnout 48,737 68.1

Leave Vote: 59.4%

Sitting MP: Richard Drax (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. West Dorset

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27287 (47.6%)
Labour: 3815 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 23364 (40.7%)
Green: 675 (1.2%)
UKIP: 2196 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 3923 (6.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Oliver Letwin 28,329 50.2 +2.6
Liberal Democrat Ros Kayes 12,199 21.6 −19.1
UKIP David Glossop 7,055 12.5 +8.7
Labour Rachel Rogers 5,633 10.0 +3.3
Green Peter Barton 3,242 5.7 +4.6
Majority 16,130 28.6
Turnout 56,643 72.6 −2.0

Leave Vote: 51%

Sitting MP: Oliver Letwin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE