General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 32. Hampshire

HAMPSHIRE

Seats: 19
Current Political Makeup: Con 18, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 19

1. Aldershot

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21203 (46.7%)
Labour: 5489 (12.1%)
Lib Dem: 15617 (34.4%)
UKIP: 2041 (4.5%)
Christian: 231 (0.5%)
Others: 803 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 5586 (12.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gerald Howarth 23,369 50.6 +3.9
Labour Gary Puffett 8,468 18.3 +6.2
UKIP Bill Walker 8,253 17.9 +13.4
Liberal Democrat Alan Hilliar 4,076 8.8 -25.6
Green Carl Hewitt 2,025 4.4 N/A
Majority 14,901 32.3 +20.0
Turnout 46,191 63.8 +0.3

Leave Vote: 58.1%

Sitting MP: Sir Gerald Howarth
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Basingstoke

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25590 (50.5%)
Labour: 10327 (20.4%)
Lib Dem: 12414 (24.5%)
UKIP: 2076 (4.1%)
Others: 247 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13176 (26%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Maria Miller 25,769 48.6 -2.0
Labour Paul Harvey 14,706 27.7 +7.3
UKIP Alan Stone 8,290 15.6 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Janice Spalding 3,919 7.4 -17.1
Independent Omar Selim 392 0.7 N/A
Majority 11,063 20.8 -5.2
Turnout 53,076 66.6 -0.5

Leave Vote: 53.6%

Sitting MP: Maria Miller (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. East Hampshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29137 (56.8%)
Labour: 4043 (7.9%)
Lib Dem: 15640 (30.5%)
UKIP: 1477 (2.9%)
English Dem: 710 (1.4%)
Others: 310 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 13497 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Damian Hinds 31,334 60.7 +3.9
UKIP Peter Baillie 6,187 12.0 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Richard Robinson 5,732 11.1 −19.4
Labour Alex Wilks 5,220 10.1 +2.2
Green Peter Bisset 3,176 6.1 +6.1
Majority 25,147 48.7 +22.4
Turnout 51,649 71.1 +0.1

Leave Vote: 49.3%

Sitting MP: Damian Hinds (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Eastleigh

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21102 (39.3%)
Labour: 5153 (9.6%)
Lib Dem: 24966 (46.5%)
UKIP: 1933 (3.6%)
English Dem: 249 (0.5%)
Independent: 154 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 3864 (7.2%)

2013 BY ELECTION Result:
Conservative: 10,559 (25.4%)
Labour: 3088 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 13,342 (32.1%)
UKIP: 11,571 (27.8%)
Others: 2,194 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 1,771 (4.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mims Davies⁸ 23,464 42.3 +3.0
Liberal Democrat Mike Thornton 14,317 25.8 -20.7
UKIP Patricia Culligan⁹ 8,783 15.8 +12.2
Labour Mark Latham¹⁰ 7,181 12.9 +3.3
Green Ron Meldrum¹¹ 1,513 2.7 N/A
Beer, Baccy and Scratchings Ray Hall 133 0.2 N/A
TUSC Declan Clune 114 0.2 N/A
Majority 9,147 16.5 +9.3
Turnout 55,505 69.9 +0.6

Leave Vote: 54.3%

Sitting MP: Mims Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Former LibDem MP and council leader Mike Thornton is standing but it’s difficult in the current climate how he can overcome a 9k majority.

5. Fareham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30037 (55.3%)
Labour: 7719 (14.2%)
Lib Dem: 12945 (23.8%)
Green: 791 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2235 (4.1%)
English Dem: 618 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 17092 (31.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Suella Fernandes⁴ 30,689 56.1 +0.8
UKIP Malcolm Jones⁵ 8,427 15.4 +11.3
Labour Stuart Rose⁶ 7,800 14.3 +0.1
Liberal Democrat Matthew Winnington⁷ 4,814 8.8 −15.0
Green Miles Grindey 2,129 3.9 +2.4
Independent Nick Gregory 705 1.3 N/A
Independent Harvey Hines 136 0.2 N/A
Majority 22,262 40.7
Turnout 54,700 70.8

Leave Vote: 55.5%

Sitting MP: Suella Fernandes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Gosport

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24300 (51.8%)
Labour: 7944 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 9887 (21.1%)
BNP: 1004 (2.1%)
Green: 573 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1496 (3.2%)
English Dem: 622 (1.3%)
Independent: 493 (1.1%)
Others: 620 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 14413 (30.7%)

2015 Majority
Conservative Caroline Dinenage 26,364 55.3 +3.5
UKIP Christopher Wood 9,266 19.4 +16.3
Labour Alan Durrant 6,926 14.5 −2.4
Liberal Democrat Rob Hylands⁹ 3,298 6.9 -14.1
Green Monica Cassidy 1,707 3.6 +2.4
Independent Jeffrey Roberts 104 0.2 N/A
Majority 17,098 35.9 +5.2
Turnout 47,662 65.1 +0.5

Leave Vote: 61.8%

Sitting MP: Caroline Dinenage (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Havant

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22433 (51.1%)
Labour: 7777 (17.7%)
Lib Dem: 10273 (23.4%)
UKIP: 2611 (5.9%)
English Dem: 809 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 12160 (27.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alan Mak 23,159 51.7 +0.6
UKIP John Perry 9,239 20.6 +14.7
Labour Graham Giles 7,149 15.9 −1.8
Liberal Democrat Steve Sollitt⁴ 2,929 6.5 −16.9
Green Tim Dawes 2,352 5.2 N/A
Majority 13,920 31.1
Turnout 44,828 63.5

Leave Vote: 62.6%

Sitting MP: Alan Mak (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Meon Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28818 (56.2%)
Labour: 3266 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 16693 (32.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (2.9%)
English Dem: 582 (1.1%)
Independent: 134 (0.3%)
Others: 255 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12125 (23.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative George Hollingbery⁶ 31,578 61.1 +4.9
UKIP David Alexander⁷ 7,665 14.8 +11.9
Labour Gemma McKenna 5,656 10.9 +4.5
Liberal Democrat Chris Carrigan 4,987 9.6 −23.0
Green Diana Wellings⁸ (aka: Diana Korchien⁹) 1,831 3.5 3.5
Majority 23,913 46.2
Turnout 51,717 71.1 +0.9

Leave Vote: 51.9%

Sitting MP: George Hollingbery (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. New Forest East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26443 (52.8%)
Labour: 4915 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 15136 (30.3%)
Green: 1024 (2%)
UKIP: 2518 (5%)
MAJORITY: 11307 (22.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Julian Lewis 27,819 56.3 +3.4
UKIP Roy Swales⁵ 8,657 17.5 +12.5
Labour Andrew Pope⁶ 6,018 12.2 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Bruce Tennent 4,626 9.4 −20.9
Green Sally May⁷ 2,327 4.7 +2.7
Majority 19,162 38.8
Turnout 49,447 68.0 −0.7

Leave Vote: 60.2%

Sitting MP: Julian Lewis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. New Forest West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27980 (58.8%)
Labour: 4666 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 11084 (23.3%)
Green: 1059 (2.2%)
UKIP: 2783 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 16896 (35.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Desmond Swayne 28,420 59.9 +1.1
UKIP Paul Bailey 7,816 16.5 +10.6
Labour Lena Samuels 5,133 10.8 +1.0
Liberal Democrat Imogen Shepherd-DuBey 3,293 6.9 −16.4
Green Janet Richards 2,748 5.8 +3.6
Majority 20,604 43.5
Turnout 69.2

Leave Vote: 55.3%

Sitting MP: Desmond Swayne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

11. North East Hampshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32075 (60.6%)
Labour: 5173 (9.8%)
Lib Dem: 13478 (25.5%)
UKIP: 2213 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 18597 (35.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ranil Jayawardena 35,573 65.9 +5.3
Liberal Democrat Graham Cockarill 5,657 10.5 −15.0
Labour Amran Justin Matheo Hussain 5,290 9.8 0.0
UKIP Robert John Charles Blay1 4,732 8.8 +4.6
Green Andrew Graham Johnston 2,364 4.4 +4.4
Monster Raving Loony Mad Max Bobetsky 384 0.7 +0.7
Majority 29,916 55.4
Turnout 54,000 72.9 −0.4

Leave Vote: 46.2%
Sitting MP: Ranil Jayawadrena (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. North West Hampshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 31072 (58.3%)
Labour: 6980 (13.1%)
Lib Dem: 12489 (23.4%)
UKIP: 2751 (5.2%)
MAJORITY: 18583 (34.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Kit Malthouse⁹ 32,052 58.1 −0.2
UKIP Susan Perkins¹⁰ 8,109 14.7 +9.5
Labour Andrew Adams ¹¹ 7,342 13.3 +0.2
Liberal Democrat Alexander Payton ¹² 5,151 9.3 −14.1
Green Dan Hill¹³ 2,541 4.6 +4.6
Majority 23,943 43.4
Turnout 55,195 69.7 +0.1

Leave Vote: 54.8%

Sitting MP: Kit Malthouse (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

13. Portsmouth North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19533 (44.3%)
Labour: 12244 (27.8%)
Lib Dem: 8874 (20.1%)
Green: 461 (1%)
UKIP: 1812 (4.1%)
English Dem: 1040 (2.4%)
TUSC: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7289 (16.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Penny Mordaunt 21,343 47.0 +2.7
Labour John Ferrett⁶ 10,806 23.8 -3.9
UKIP Mike Fitzgerald⁷ 8,660 19.1 +15.0
Liberal Democrat Darren Sanders 2,828 6.2 -13.9
Green Gavin Ellis ⁸ 1,450 3.2 +2.1
TUSC Jon Woods 231 0.5 +0.2
Majority 10,537 23.2 +6.7
Turnout 45,318 62.1 -0.6

Leave Vote: 65.2%

Sitting MP: Penny Mordaunt (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

14. Portsmouth South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 13721 (33.3%)
Labour: 5640 (13.7%)
Lib Dem: 18921 (45.9%)
BNP: 873 (2.1%)
Green: 716 (1.7%)
UKIP: 876 (2.1%)
English Dem: 400 (1%)
Others: 117 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5200 (12.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Flick Drummond 14,585 34.8 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Gerald Vernon-Jackson 9,344 22.3 −23.6
Labour Sue Castillon 8,184 19.5 +5.9
UKIP Steve Harris 5,595 13.4 +11.2
Green Ian McCulloch 3,145 7.5 +5.8
Independent Mike Hancock 716 1.7 N/A
TUSC Sean Hoyle 235 0.6 N/A
JAC Don Jerrard 99 0.2 0.0
Majority 5,241 12.5
Turnout 41,903 58.5

Leave Vote: 49.7%

Sitting MP: Flick Drummond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

15. Romsey & Southampton North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24345 (49.7%)
Labour: 3116 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 20189 (41.3%)
UKIP: 1289 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4156 (8.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Caroline Nokes 26,285 54.4 +4.6
Liberal Democrat Ben Nicholls 8,573 17.7 -23.5
Labour Darren Paffey 5,749 11.9 +5.5
UKIP Sandra James 5,511 11.4 +8.8
Green Ian Callaghan 2,218 4.6 n/a
Majority 17,712 36.6
Turnout 72.76

Leave Vote: 46.1%

Sitting MP: Caroline Nokes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

16. Southampton Itchen

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16134 (36.3%)
Labour: 16326 (36.8%)
Lib Dem: 9256 (20.8%)
Green: 600 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1928 (4.3%)
TUSC: 168 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Royston Smith 18,656 41.7 +5.4
Labour Rowenna Davis 16,340 36.5 -0.2
UKIP Kim Rose 6,010 13.4 +9.1
Green John Spottiswoode 1,876 4.2 +2.8
Liberal Democrat Eleanor Bell 1,595 3.6 -17.3
TUSC Sue Atkins 233 0.5 +0.1
Majority 2,316 5.2 +4.8
Turnout 44,710 61.8 +2.2

Leave Vote: 60.3%

Sitting MP: Royston Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not a dead cert hold, but if the Tories won it last time, it’s difficult to see how they would lose it this time.

17. Southampton Test

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14588 (33%)
Labour: 17001 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 9865 (22.3%)
Green: 881 (2%)
UKIP: 1726 (3.9%)
Independent: 126 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2413 (5.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Alan Whitehead 18,017 41.3 +2.8
Conservative Jeremy Moulton 14,207 32.5 -0.5
UKIP Pearline Hingston 5,566 12.8 +8.8
Green Angela Mawle 2,568 5.9 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Adrian Ford 2,121 4.9 -17.5
Independent Chris Davis 770 1.8 N/A
TUSC Nick Chaffey 403 0.9 +0.9
Majority 3,810 8.7 +3.2
Turnout 43,652 62.1 +0.7

Leave Vote: 49.4%

Sitting MP: Alan Whitehead (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat was held by the Tories up until 1997, but has been relatively solidly Labour ever since. However, as in Itchen, its vote has been on the decline and Labour will be a little worried about losing it if the Tories get a big majority. One to watch on election night.

18. Winchester

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27155 (48.5%)
Labour: 3051 (5.5%)
Lib Dem: 24107 (43.1%)
UKIP: 1139 (2%)
English Dem: 503 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3048 (5.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Steve Brine 30,425 55.0 +6.5
Liberal Democrat Jackie Porter 13,511 24.4 -18.7
Labour Mark Chaloner 4,613 8.3 +2.9
UKIP Martin Lyon 4,122 7.5 +5.4
Green Michael Wilks 2,645 4.8 N/A
Majority 16,914 30.6 +25.2
Turnout 53,316 74.6 -1.2

Leave Vote: 39.6%

Sitting MP: Steve Brine (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

19. Isle of Wight

2010 Result:
Conservative: 32810 (46.7%)
Labour: 8169 (11.6%)
Lib Dem: 22283 (31.7%)
BNP: 1457 (2.1%)
Green: 931 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2435 (3.5%)
English Dem: 1233 (1.8%)
Independent: 175 (0.2%)
Others: 771 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10527 (15%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Turner¹⁶ 28,591 40.7 -6.0
UKIP Iain McKie¹⁷ 14,888 21.2 +17.7
Green Vix Lowthion¹⁸ 9,404 13.4 +12.1
Labour Stewart Blackmore¹⁶ 8,984 12.8 +1.2
Liberal Democrat David Goodall¹⁹ 5,235 7.5 -24.2
Independent Ian Stephens²⁰ 3,198 4.5 N/A
Majority 13,703 19.5 +4.5
Turnout 70,300 65.0 +1.1

Sitting MP: Andrew Turner (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Andrew Turner has stood down at the last minute but this is a safe Tory hold.

To see previous predictions. click HERE