General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 45. Highlands & Islands

Scotland – North & Islands

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: SNP 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: SNP 5, LibDem 1

1. Orkney & Shetland

2010 Result:
Conservative: 2032 (10.5%)
Labour: 2061 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 11989 (62%)
SNP: 2042 (10.6%)
UKIP: 1222 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 9928 (51.3%)

2015 Result:
Liberal Democrats Alistair Carmichael¹⁰ 9,407 41.4 −20.6
SNP Danus Skene 8,590 37.8 +27.2
Conservative Donald Cameron¹¹ 2,025 8.9 −1.6
Labour Gerry McGarvey 1,624 7.1 −3.5
UKIP Robert Smith¹² 1,082 4.8 −1.6
Majority 817 3.6 -47.7
Turnout 22,728 65.8 +7.3

Sitting MP: Alistair Carmichael (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold

2. Na h-Eileanan an lar

2010 Result:
Conservative: 647 (4.4%)
Labour: 4838 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 1097 (7.5%)
SNP: 6723 (45.7%)
Independent: 1412 (9.6%)
MAJORITY: 1885 (12.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Angus MacNeil 8,662 54.3 +8.6
Labour Alasdair Morrison 4,560 28.6 −4.3
Conservative Mark Brown 1,215 7.6 +3.2
Scottish Christian John Cormack 1,045 6.6 n/a
Liberal Democrat Ruaraidh Ferguson 456 2.9 −4.6
Majority 4,102 25.7 +12.9
Turnout 15,938 73.2 +7.1

Sitting MP: Angus MacNeil (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

3. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

2010 Result:
Conservative: 3744 (13%)
Labour: 7081 (24.6%)
Lib Dem: 11907 (41.4%)
SNP: 5516 (19.2%)
Independent: 520 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4826 (16.8%)

2015 Result:
SNP Paul Monaghan 15,831 46.3 +27.1
Liberal Democrat John Thurso 11,987 35.1 −6.3
Labour John Erskine 3,061 9.0 −15.7
Conservative Alastair Graham 2,326 6.8 −6.2
UKIP Annie Murray 981 2.9 N/A
Majority 3,844 11.2 n/a
Turnout 34,186 71.9 +11.0

Sitting MP: Paul Monaghan (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

A LibDem target, yet they failed to make any progress at the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections.

4. Ross, Skye & Lochaber

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4260 (12.2%)
Labour: 5265 (15.1%)
Lib Dem: 18335 (52.6%)
SNP: 5263 (15.1%)
Green: 777 (2.2%)
UKIP: 659 (1.9%)
Independent: 279 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13070 (37.5%)

2015 Result:
SNP Ian Blackford 20,119 48.1 +33.0
Liberal Democrat Charles Kennedy 14,995 35.9 -16.8
Conservative Lindsay McCallum 2,598 6.2 -6.0
Labour Chris Conniff 2,043 4.9 -10.2
Scottish Green Anne Thomas 1,051 2.5 +0.3
UKIP Philip Anderson 814 1.9 +0.1
Independent Ronnie Campbell 191 0.5 -0.3
Majority 5,124 12.3
Turnout 41,811 77.2 +10.0

Sitting MP: Ian Blackford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

Not a huge majority, but sadly Charles Kennedy isn’t here to challenge it.

5. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6278 (13.3%)
Labour: 10407 (22.1%)
Lib Dem: 19172 (40.7%)
SNP: 8803 (18.7%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
UKIP: 574 (1.2%)
Christian: 835 (1.8%)
TUSC: 135 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8765 (18.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Drew Hendry⁵ 28,838 50.1 +31.4
Liberal Democrats Danny Alexander 18,029 31.3 -9.4
Labour Mike Robb 4,311 7.5 -14.6
Conservative Edward Mountain 3,410 5.9 -7.4
Scottish Green Isla O’Reilly 1,367 2.4 +0.7
UKIP Les Durance 1,236 2.1 +0.9
Scottish Christian Donald Boyd⁶ 422 0.7 -1.0
Majority 10,809 18.8
Turnout 57,613 74.2 +9.3

Sitting MP: Drew Hendry (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

6. Moray

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10683 (26.1%)
Labour: 7007 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 5956 (14.5%)
SNP: 16273 (39.7%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 5590 (13.6%)

2015 Result:
SNP Angus Robertson 24,384 49.5 +9.8
Conservative Douglas Ross 15,319 31.1 +5.0
Labour Sean Morton 4,898 9.9 −7.1
UKIP Robert Scorer 1,939 3.9 +1.3
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 1,395 2.8 −11.7
Scottish Green James MacKessack-Leitch 1,345 2.7 N/A
Majority 9,065 18.4 +4.8
Turnout 49,280 68.7 +6.5

Sitting MP: Angus Robertson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold

The Conservatives are heavily taregting this seat. Certainly in the Scottish Parliament elections it was a tigher race than in 2015, but it’s still quite a majority to overcome. A Tory gain here is highly doubtful, but in the world of Scottish politics at the moment, anything can happen.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE