General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 49. Oxfordshire

OXFORDSHIRE

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 5, Lab 1

1. Banbury

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29703 (52.8%)
Labour: 10773 (19.2%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (20.4%)
Green: 959 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2806 (5%)
Independent: 524 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 18227 (32.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Victoria Prentis¹⁶ 30,749 53.0 +0.2
Labour Sean Woodcock 12,354 21.3 +2.1
UKIP Dickie Bird¹⁷ 8,050 13.9 +8.9
Liberal Democrat John Howson 3,440 5.9 -14.5
Green Ian Middleton¹⁸ 2,686 4.6 +2.9
National Health Action Roseanne Edwards 729 1.3 N/A
Majority 18,395 31.7 -0.7
Turnout 58,008 65.6¹⁹ +0.9

Leave Vote 50.1%

Sitting MP: Victoria Prentis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Henley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30054 (56.2%)
Labour: 5835 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 13466 (25.2%)
BNP: 1020 (1.9%)
Green: 1328 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1817 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 16588 (31%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Howell⁶ 32,292 58.5 +2.3
Labour Sam Juthani⁷ 6,917 12.5 +1.6
Liberal Democrat Sue Cooper⁸ 6,205 11.2 -13.9
UKIP Christopher Jones⁹ 6,007 10.9 +7.5
Green Mark Stevenson¹⁰ 3,815 6.9 +4.4
Majority 25,375 45.9
Turnout 55,236 70.9 -0.5

Leave Vote: 43.1%

Sitting MP: John Howell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Oxford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9727 (18.8%)
Labour: 21938 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 17357 (33.6%)
Green: 1238 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.3%)
Others: 189 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4581 (8.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Andrew Smith 25,356 50.0 +7.5
Conservative Melanie Magee 10,076 19.9 +1.0
Green Ann Duncan⁸ 5,890 11.6 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Alasdair Murray⁹ 5,453 10.8 -22.8
UKIP Ian Macdonald¹⁰ 3,451 6.8 +4.5
Independent Chaka Artwell¹¹ 160 0.3 +0.3
Monster Raving Loony Mad Hatter¹¹ 145 0.3 +0.3
TUSC James Morbin¹² 108 0.2 +0.2
Socialist (GB) Kevin Parkin¹³ 50 0.1 +0.1
Majority 15,280 30.1
Turnout 64.2¹⁴

Sitting MP: Andrew Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Oxford West & Abingdon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23906 (42.3%)
Labour: 5999 (10.6%)
Lib Dem: 23730 (42%)
Green: 1184 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1518 (2.7%)
Others: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 176 (0.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nicola Blackwood 26,153 45.7 +3.4
Liberal Democrat Layla Moran 16,571 28.9 −13.1
Labour Sally Copley 7,274 12.7 +2.1
UKIP Alan Harris 3,963 6.9 +4.2
Green Larry Sanders 2,497 4.4 +2.3
National Health Action Helen Salisbury 723 1.3 N/A
Socialist (GB) Mike Foster 66 0.1 N/A
Majority 9,582 16.7
Turnout 57,247 75.2 +5.0

Leave Vote: 38%

Sitting MP: Nicola Blackwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5 Wantage

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29284 (52%)
Labour: 7855 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 15737 (27.9%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2421 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13547 (24%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ed Vaizey 31,092 53.3 +1.3
Labour Stephen Webb 9,343 16.0 +2.1
Liberal Democrat Alex Meredith 7,611 13.1 -14.9
UKIP Lee Upcraft 7,288 12.5 +8.2
Green Kate Prendergast 2,986 5.1 +3.3
Majority 21,749 37.3 +17.2
Turnout 58,320 70.3 +0.3

Leave Vote: 46.5%

Sitting MP: Ed Vaizey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Witney

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33973 (58.8%)
Labour: 7511 (13%)
Lib Dem: 11233 (19.4%)
Green: 2385 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2001 (3.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.3%)
Others: 500 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 22740 (39.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Cameron 35,201 60.2 +1.4
Labour Duncan Enright 10,046 17.2 +4.2
UKIP Simon Strutt 5,352 9.2 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Andy Graham 3,953 6.8 −12.7
Green Stuart MacDonald 2,970 5.1 +0.9
National Health Action Clive Peedell 616 1.1 N/A
Wessex Regionalist Colin Bex 110 0.2 +0.1
Independent Christopher Tompson 94 0.2 N/A
Reduce VAT in Sport Vivien Saunders 56 0.1 N/A
Give Me Back Elmo Bobby Smith 37 0.1 N/A
Land Party Deek Jackson 35 0.1 N/A
Independent Nathan Handley 12 0.02 N/A
Majority 25,155 43 +3.6
Turnout 58,482 73.3 +0.0

Sitting MP: Robert Courts (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE