General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 50. Lincolnshire

LINCOLNSHIRE

Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 7
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7

1. Boston & Skegness

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21325 (49.4%)
Labour: 8899 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 6371 (14.8%)
BNP: 2278 (5.3%)
UKIP: 4081 (9.5%)
Independent: 171 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12426 (28.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Matt Warman 18,981 43.8 -5.7
UKIP Robin Hunter-Clarke 14,645 33.8 +24.3
Labour Paul Kenny 7,142 16.5 -4.2
Liberal Democrat David Watts 1,015 2.3 -12.4
Green Victoria Percival 800 1.8 N/A
An Independence from Europe Chris Pain 324 0.7 N/A
Independent Peter Johnson 170 0.4 N/A
The Pilgrim Party Lyn Luxton 143 0.3 N/A
BNP Robert West 119 0.3 -5.0
Majority 4,336 10.0 -18.8
Turnout 43,339 63.9 +2.8

Leave Vote: 75.6%

Sitting MP: Matt Warman (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

This is Britain’s most Brexit oriented seat, and it has a Remain supporting Tory MP in Matt Warman. UKIP leader Paul Nuttall is standing here and will have high hopes given a majority of only a tad more than 4,000. However, he’s got his work cut out given that he’s the leader of a political party and won’t be able to spend all his time on local campaigning. A lot will depend on how many locals consider Brexit to be the most important issue they’re voting on. I think Matt Warman will hang on if the Tory campaign remains geared towards giving Theresa May a strong mandate.

2. Gainsborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24266 (49.3%)
Labour: 7701 (15.6%)
Lib Dem: 13707 (27.8%)
BNP: 1512 (3.1%)
UKIP: 2065 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 10559 (21.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Edward Leigh 25,949 52.7 +3.4
Labour David Prescott 10,500 21.3 +5.7
UKIP John Saxon⁶ 7,727 15.7 +11.5
Liberal Democrat Lesley Rollings 3,290 6.7 -21.2
Green Geoff Barnes 1,290 2.6 +2.6
Lincolnshire Independent Chris Darcel 505 1.0 +1.0
Majority 15,449 31.4 +10.0
Turnout 48,261 67.3 -1.0

Leave Vote: 62%

Sitting MP: Sir Edward Leigh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Grantham & Stamford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26552 (50.3%)
Labour: 9503 (18%)
Lib Dem: 11726 (22.2%)
BNP: 2485 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1604 (3%)
Others: 929 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 14826 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nick Boles¹¹ 28,399 52.8 +2.5
UKIP Marietta King 9,410 17.5 +14.5
Labour Barrie Fairbairn 9,070 16.9 −1.1
Liberal Democrat Harrish Bisnauthsing 3,263 6.1 −16.1
Green Aidan Campbell 1,872 3.5 N/A
Independent Ian Selby 1,017 1.9 N/A
Lincolnshire Independent Jan Hansen 724 1.3 −0.4
Majority 18,989 35.3 +7.2
Turnout 53,755 66.2 −1.8

Leave Vote: 61%

Sitting MP: Nicholas Boles (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Lincoln

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17163 (37.5%)
Labour: 16105 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 9256 (20.2%)
BNP: 1367 (3%)
UKIP: 1004 (2.2%)
English Dem: 604 (1.3%)
Independent: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1058 (2.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Karl McCartney 19,976 42.6 +5.1
Labour Lucy Rigby 18,533 39.6 +4.3
UKIP Nick Smith 5,721 12.2 +10.0
Liberal Democrat Ross Pepper 1,992 4.3 -16.0
TUSC Elaine Smith 344 0.7 +0.7
Lincolnshire Independent Helen Powell 286 0.6 +0.6
Majority 1,443 3.1
Turnout 46,852 63.2

Leave Vote: 57.4%

Sitting MP: Karl McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

In 2015 I predicted Karl McCartney would lose. He didn’t and if he didn’t lose then, there’s no reason to think he will this time unless there has been a huge demographic change which I am not aware of.

5. Louth & Horncastle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25065 (49.6%)
Labour: 8760 (17.3%)
Lib Dem: 11194 (22.2%)
BNP: 2199 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2183 (4.3%)
English Dem: 517 (1%)
Others: 576 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13871 (27.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Victoria Atkins⁶ 25,755 51.2 +1.5
UKIP Colin Mair 10,778 21.4 +17.1
Labour Matthew Jason Brown 9,077 18.0 +0.7
Liberal Democrat Lisa Gabriel 2,255 4.5 -17.7
Green Romy Rayner 1,549 3.1 +3.1
Lincolnshire Independent Daniel Simpson 659 1.3 +0.2
Monster Raving Loony Peter Hill⁷ 263 0.5 +0.5
Majority 14,977 29.8
Turnout 50,336 67.8

Leave Vote: 68.9%

Sitting MP: Victoria Atkins (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Sleaford & North Hykeham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30719 (51.6%)
Labour: 10051 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 10814 (18.2%)
BNP: 1977 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2163 (3.6%)
Others: 3806 (6.4%)
MAJORITY: 19905 (33.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen Phillips 34,805 56.2 +4.6
Labour Jason Pandya-Wood 10,690 17.3 +0.4
UKIP Steven Hopkins 9,716 15.7 +12.1
Liberal Democrat Matthew Holden 3,500 5.7 -12.5
Lincolnshire Independent Marianne Overton 3,233 5.2 -1.2
Majority 24,115 38.9
Turnout 61,944 70.2

Leave Vote: 61.6%

Sitting MP: Caroline Johnson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South Holland & the Deepings

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29639 (59.1%)
Labour: 7024 (14%)
Lib Dem: 7759 (15.5%)
BNP: 1796 (3.6%)
Green: 724 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3246 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 21880 (43.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative John Hayes 29,303 59.6 +0.5
UKIP David Parsons⁶ 10,736 21.8 +15.4
Labour Matthew Mahabadi 6,122 12.4 -1.6
Green Daniel Wilshire⁷ 1,580 3.2 +1.8
Liberal Democrat George Smid⁸ 1,466 3.0 -12.5
Majority 18,567 37.7
Turnout 49,207 63.9

Leave Vote: 71.1%

Sitting MP: John Hayes (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE