General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 59. Hertfordshire

HERTFORDSHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 11
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 11

1. Broxbourne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26844 (58.8%)
Labour: 8040 (17.6%)
Lib Dem: 6107 (13.4%)
BNP: 2159 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1890 (4.1%)
English Dem: 618 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 18804 (41.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Charles Walker 25,797 56.1 −2.7
UKIP David Platt 9,074 19.7 +15.6
Labour Edward Robinson 8,470 18.4 +0.8
Liberal Democrat Anthony Rowlands 1,467 3.2 −10.2
Green Russell Secker 1,216 2.6 N/A
Majority 16,723 36.3 −4.9
Turnout 46,024 63.1 −0.9

Leave Vote: 65.5%

Sitting MP: Charles Walker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Hemel Hempstead

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24721 (50%)
Labour: 10295 (20.8%)
Lib Dem: 11315 (22.9%)
BNP: 1615 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1254 (2.5%)
Independent: 271 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13406 (27.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mike Penning 26,245 52.9 +2.9
Labour Tony Breslin 11,825 23.8 +3.0
UKIP Howard Koch 7,249 14.6 +12.1
Liberal Democrat Rabi Martins 2,402 4.8 −18.0
Green Alan Borgars 1,660 3.3 N/A
Independent Brian Hall 252 0.5 N/A
Majority 14,420 29.1 +2
Turnout 49,633 66.5 -1.5

Leave Vote: 55.5%

Sitting MP: Mike Penning (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Hertford & Stortford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29810 (53.8%)
Labour: 7620 (13.8%)
Lib Dem: 14373 (26%)
BNP: 1297 (2.3%)
UKIP: 1716 (3.1%)
Independent: 325 (0.6%)
Others: 236 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 15437 (27.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Mark Prisk⁹ 31,593 56.1 +2.3
Labour Katherine Chibah¹⁰ 10,084 17.9 +4.2
UKIP Adrian Baker¹⁰ 7,534 13.4 +10.3
Liberal Democrat Michael Green¹¹ 4,385 7.8 -18.2
Green Sophie Christophy¹² 2,681 4.8 +4.8
Majority 21,509 38.2 +10.3
Turnout 56,277 71.3 +0.7

Leave Vote: 49.2%

Sitting MP: Mark Prisk (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Hertsmere

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26476 (56%)
Labour: 8871 (18.8%)
Lib Dem: 8210 (17.4%)
BNP: 1397 (3%)
Green: 604 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1712 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 17605 (37.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Oliver Dowden 29,696 59.3 +3.3
Labour Richard Butler⁹ 11,235 22.4 +3.7
UKIP Frank Ward 6,383 12.7 +9.1
Liberal Democrat Sophie Bowler 2,777 5.5 −11.8
Majority 18,461 36.9 −0.3
Turnout 50,091 67.9 +3.2

Leave Vote: 50.8%

Sitting MP: Oliver Dowden (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

5. Hitchin & Harpenden

2010 Result:
Conservative: 29869 (54.6%)
Labour: 7413 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 14598 (26.7%)
Green: 807 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1663 (3%)
Independent: 109 (0.2%)
Others: 248 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 15271 (27.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Peter Lilley 31,488 56.9 +2.3
Labour Rachel Burgin 11,433 20.6 +7.1
UKIP John Stocker 4,917 8.9 +5.8
Liberal Democrat Pauline Pearce 4,484 8.1 -18.6
Green Richard Wise 3,053 5.5 +4
Majority 20,055 36.2 +8.3
Turnout 55,375 74.0 −0.1

Leave Vote: 39.3%

Sitting MP: Peter Lilley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. North East Hertfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26995 (53.5%)
Labour: 8291 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 11801 (23.4%)
Green: 875 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2075 (4.1%)
Independent: 209 (0.4%)
Others: 179 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 15194 (30.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Oliver Heald 28,949 55.4 +1.8
Labour Chris York⁷ 9,869 18.9 +2.4
UKIP William Compton⁸ 6,728 12.9 +8.8
Liberal Democrat Joe Jordan⁹ 3,952 7.6 −15.8
Green Mario May¹⁰¹¹ 2,789 5.3 +3.6
Majority 19,080 36.5 −4.3
Turnout 52,500 70.7 +0.9

Leave Vote: 51.4%

Sitting MP: Oliver Heald (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. South West Hertfordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 30773 (54.2%)
Labour: 6526 (11.5%)
Lib Dem: 15853 (27.9%)
BNP: 1302 (2.3%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.6%)
Independent: 846 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 14920 (26.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Gauke 32,608 56.9 +2.7
Labour Simon Diggins 9,345 16.3 +4.8
UKIP Mark Anderson 6,603 11.5 +9.0
Liberal Democrat Nigel Quinton 5,872 10.3 −17.7
Green Charlotte Pardy 2,583 4.5 N/A
Common Sense Party Graham Cartmell 256 0.4 N/A
Majority 23,263 40.6
Turnout 71.9

Leave Vote: 46.2%

Sitting MP: David Gauke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. St Albans

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21533 (40.8%)
Labour: 9288 (17.6%)
Lib Dem: 19228 (36.4%)
Green: 758 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2028 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 2305 (4.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Anne Main 25,392 46.6 +5.9
Labour Kerry Pollard 12,660 23.3 +5.7
Liberal Democrat Sandy Walkington 10,076 18.5 -17.9
UKIP Chris Wright 4,271 7.8 +4.0
Green Jack Easton 2,034 3.7 +2.3
Majority 12,732 23.4 +19
Turnout 54,433 72.0 -3.4

Leave Vote: 37.8%

Sitting MP: Anne Main (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Stevenage

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18491 (41.4%)
Labour: 14913 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 7432 (16.6%)
BNP: 1007 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2004 (4.5%)
English Dem: 366 (0.8%)
Independent: 80 (0.2%)
Others: 358 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 3578 (8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Stephen McPartland 21,291 44.5 +3.1
Labour Sharon Taylor 16,336 34.2 +0.8
UKIP David Collins 6,864 14.4 +9.9
Liberal Democrat Susan Van De Ven 1,582 3.3 −13.3
Green Graham White 1,369 2.9 N/A
TUSC Trevor Palmer 175 0.4 N/A
English Democrat Charles Vickers 115 0.2 −0.6
Independent David Cox 67 0.1 −0.1
Majority 4,955 10.4 +2.4
Turnout 67.7 +2.9

Leave Vote: 57%

Sitting MP: Stephen McPartland (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. Watford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19291 (34.9%)
Labour: 14750 (26.7%)
Lib Dem: 17866 (32.4%)
BNP: 1217 (2.2%)
Green: 885 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1199 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 1425 (2.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Richard Harrington 24,400 43.5 +8.5
Labour Matthew Turmaine 14,606 26.0 -0.7
Liberal Democrat Dorothy Thornhill 10,152 18.1 -14.3
UKIP Nick Lincoln 5,481 9.8 +7.6
Green Aidan Cottrell-Boyce 1,332 2.4 +0.8
TUSC Mark O’Connor 178 0.3 +0.3
Majority 9,794 17.4 +14.8
Turnout 56,149 66.6 -1.7

Leave Vote: 51.2%

Sitting MP: Richard Harrington (Con)
Prediction: *Conservative hold

11. Welwyn & Hatfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27894 (57%)
Labour: 10471 (21.4%)
Lib Dem: 8010 (16.4%)
Green: 796 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1643 (3.4%)
Independent: 158 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 17423 (35.6%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Grant Shapps 25,281 50.4 −6.6
Labour Anawar Miah 13,128 26.1 +4.8
UKIP Arthur Stevens⁹ 6,556 13.1 +9.7
Liberal Democrat Hugh Annand 3,140 6.3 −10.1
Green Marc Scheimann¹⁰ 1,742 3.5 +1.8
Independent Michael Green¹¹ 216 0.4 N/A
TUSC Richard Shattock 142 0.3 N/A
Majority 12,153 24.2
Turnout 68.5

Leave Vote: 52.8%

Sitting MP: Grant Shapps (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To see the complete list of predictions click HERE