General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 63: Leicestershire

LEICESTERSHIRE

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 7, Lab 3

1. Bosworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23132 (42.6%)
Labour: 8674 (16%)
Lib Dem: 18100 (33.3%)
BNP: 2458 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1098 (2%)
English Dem: 615 (1.1%)
Others: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5032 (9.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative David Tredinnick 22,939 42.8 +0.2
Liberal Democrat Michael Mullaney 11,951 22.3 −11.0
Labour Chris Kealey 9,354 17.5 +1.5
UKIP David Sprason 9,338 17.4 +15.4
Majority 10,988 20.5 +11.2
Turnout 53,582 67 -3.2

Leave Result: 60.8%

Sitting MP: David Tredinnick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Charnwood

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26560 (49.6%)
Labour: 10536 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 11531 (21.5%)
BNP: 3116 (5.8%)
UKIP: 1799 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 15029 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Ed Argar⁸ 28,384 54.3 +4.7
Labour Sean Kelly-Walsh ⁹ 11,453 21.9 +2.2
UKIP Lynton Yates¹⁰ 8,330 15.9 +12.6
Liberal Democrat Simon Sansome 3,605 6.9 -14.6
BNP Cathy Duffy 489 0.9 -4.9
Majority 16,931 32.4 +4.3
Turnout 52,261 67.6 -4.3

Leave Vote: 57.9%

Sitting MP: Ed Argar (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Harborough

010 Result:
Conservative: 26894 (48.9%)
Labour: 6981 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 17097 (31.1%)
BNP: 1715 (3.1%)
UKIP: 1462 (2.7%)
English Dem: 568 (1%)
Independent: 228 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9797 (17.8%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Edward Garnier 27,675 52.7 +3.8
Labour Sundip Meghani 8,043 15.3 +2.6
UKIP Mark Hunt 7,539 14.4 +11.7
Liberal Democrat Zuffar Haq 7,037 13.4 -17.7
Green Darren Woodiwiss 2,177 4.1 N/A
Majority 19,632 37.4
Turnout 52,471 67.5 -2.9

Leave Vote: 52.4%

Sitting MP: Edward Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Leicester East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11722 (24.4%)
Labour: 25804 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 6817 (14.2%)
BNP: 1700 (3.5%)
Green: 733 (1.5%)
UKIP: 725 (1.5%)
Others: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 14082 (29.3%)

2015 Result:
Labour Keith Vaz 29,386 61.1 +7.4
Conservative Kishan Devani 11,034 23.0 -1.5
UKIP Susanna Steptoe⁵ 4,290 8.9 +7.4
Green Nimit Jethwa ⁶ 1,468 3.1 +1.5
Liberal Democrat Dave Raval 1,233 2.6 -11.6
TUSC Michael Barker 540 1.1 N/A
Independent Tom Darwood 117 0.2 N/A
Majority 18,352 38.2
Turnout 48,599 63.7

Leave Vote: 54.1%

Sitting MP: Keith Vaz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

5. Leicester South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10066 (21.4%)
Labour: 21479 (45.6%)
Lib Dem: 12671 (26.9%)
BNP: 1418 (3%)
Green: 770 (1.6%)
UKIP: 720 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 8808 (18.7%)

2015 Result:
Labour Co-op Jon Ashworth 27,493 59.8 +2.0
Conservative Leon Hadji-Nikolaou 9,628 20.9 -0.5
UKIP Peter Stone¹⁵ 3,832 8.3 +6.8
Green Gabriella Garcia¹⁶ 2,533 5.5 +3.9
Liberal Democrat Anita Prabhakar¹⁷ 2,127 4.6 -22.3
TUSC Andrew Walton 349 0.8 N/A
Majority 17,845 38.9
Turnout 45,962 62.5

Leave Vote: 42.1%%

Sitting MP: Jonathan Ashworth (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Leicester West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9728 (27.2%)
Labour: 13745 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 8107 (22.6%)
BNP: 2158 (6%)
Green: 639 (1.8%)
UKIP: 883 (2.5%)
TUSC: 157 (0.4%)
Independent: 181 (0.5%)
Others: 221 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4017 (11.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Liz Kendall 16,051 46.5 +8.1
Conservative Paul Bessant 8,848 25.6 -1.5
UKIP Stuart Young 5,950 17.2 +14.8
Green Peter Hague 1,878 5.4 +3.7
Liberal Democrat Ian Bradwell 1,507 4.4 -18.3
TUSC Heather Rawling 288 0.8 +0.4
Majority 7,203 20.9 +9.7
Turnout 34,522 54.6 -0.6

Leave Vote: 50.1%

Sitting MP: Liz Kendall (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

On a very good night for the Tories, they could in theory, take this seat, but I can’t see it.

7. Loughborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21971 (41.6%)
Labour: 18227 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9675 (18.3%)
BNP: 2040 (3.9%)
UKIP: 925 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 3744 (7.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nicky Morgan 25,762 49.5 +7.9
Labour Matthew O’Callaghan 16,579 31.9 -2.6
UKIP Bill Piper 5,704 11.0 +9.2
Liberal Democrat Stephen Coltman⁴ 2,130 4.1 -14.2
Green Matt Sisson⁵ 1,845 3.5 –
Majority 9,183 17.7 +10.6
Turnout 52,020 72.6 +4.4

Leave Vote: 50.1%

Sitting MP: Nicky Morgan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. North West Leicestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23147 (44.6%)
Labour: 15636 (30.1%)
Lib Dem: 8639 (16.6%)
BNP: 3396 (6.5%)
UKIP: 1134 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 7511 (14.5%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Bridgen 25,505 49.5 +4.9
Labour Jamie McMahon 14,132 27.4 −2.7
UKIP Andy McWilliam¹¹ 8,704 16.9 +14.7
Liberal Democrat Mark Argent¹² 2,033 3.9 −12.7
Green Benjamin Gravestock¹³ 1,174 2.3 +2.3
Majority 11,373 22.1
Turnout 51,548 71.4

Leave Vote: 60.7%

Sitting MP: Andrew Bridgen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Rutland & Melton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28228 (51.1%)
Labour: 7893 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 14228 (25.8%)
BNP: 1757 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2526 (4.6%)
Independent: 588 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 14000 (25.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alan Duncan 30,383 55.6 +4.5
UKIP Richard Billington⁵ 8,678 15.9 +11.3
Labour James Moore 8,383 15.4 +1.1
Liberal Democrat Ed Reynolds 4,407 8.1 −17.7
Green Alastair McQuillan 2,325 4.3 +4.3
Independent Marilyn Gordon 427 0.8 +0.8
Majority 21,705 39.8 +14.4
Turnout 54,603 68.4 −3.3

Leave Vote: 53.9%

Sitting MP: Sir Alan Duncan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. South Leicestershire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27000 (49.5%)
Labour: 11392 (20.9%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (21%)
BNP: 2721 (5%)
UKIP: 1988 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 15524 (28.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Alberto Costa 28,700 53.2 +3.7
Labour Amanda Hack 11,876 22.0 +1.1
UKIP Barry Mahoney³ 9,363 17.4 +13.7
Liberal Democrat Geoffrey Welsh 3,987 7.4 -13.6
Majority 16,824 31.2

Leave Vote: 58.1%

Sitting MP: Alberto Costa (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To all see previous predictions. click HERE