General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 65. Derbyshire

DERBYSHIRE

Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Labour 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8, Lab 3

1. Amber Valley

2010 Result:
Conservative: 17746 (38.6%)
Labour: 17210 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 6636 (14.4%)
BNP: 3195 (7%)
UKIP: 906 (2%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 536 (1.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Nigel Mills⁸ 20,106 44.0 +5.4
Labour Kevin Gillott⁹ 15,901 34.8 -2.7
UKIP Stuart Bent 7,263 15.9 +13.9
Liberal Democrat Kate Smith 1,360 3.0 -11.5
Green John Devine¹⁰ 1,087 2.4 +2.4
Majority 4,205 9.2
Turnout 45,717 65.1

Leave Vote: 65.3%

Sitting MP: Nigel Mills (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Bolsover

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10812 (24.6%)
Labour: 21994 (50%)
Lib Dem: 6821 (15.5%)
BNP: 2640 (6%)
UKIP: 1721 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 11182 (25.4%)

2015 Result
Labour Dennis Skinner 22,542 51.2 +1.2
Conservative Peter Bedford 10,764 24.5 -0.1
UKIP Ray Calladine 9,228 21.0 +17.1
Liberal Democrat David Lomax 1,464 3.3 -12.2
Majority 11,778 26.8
Turnout 43,998 61.1

Leave Vote: 70.4%

Sitting MP: Dennis Skinner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

3. Chesterfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 7214 (15.7%)
Labour: 17891 (39%)
Lib Dem: 17342 (37.8%)
Green: 600 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1432 (3.1%)
English Dem: 1213 (2.6%)
Independent: 147 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 549 (1.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Toby Perkins 21,829 47.9 +8.9
Conservative Mark Vivis 8,231 18.1 +2.3
UKIP Stuart Yeowart⁸ 7,523 16.5 +13.4
Liberal Democrat Julia Cambridge⁹ 6,301 13.8 -24
Green Matthew Genn¹⁰ 1,352 3.0 +1.7
TUSC Matt Whale¹¹ 202 0.4 +0.4
Peace Tommy Holgate¹² 129 0.3 +0.3
Majority 13,598 29.8 +28.6
Turnout 45,567 63.2 -0.6

Leave Vote: 59.3%

Sitting MP: Toby Perkins (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

4. Derby North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14283 (31.7%)
Labour: 14896 (33%)
Lib Dem: 12638 (28%)
BNP: 2000 (4.4%)
UKIP: 829 (1.8%)
Independent: 264 (0.6%)
Others: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 613 (1.4%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Amanda Solloway⁸ 16,402 36.7 +5.0
Labour Chris Williamson 16,361 36.6 +3.5
UKIP Tilly Ward⁹ 6,532 14.6 +12.8
Liberal Democrat Lucy Care¹⁰ 3,832 8.6 -19.5
Green Alice Mason-Power¹¹ 1,618 3.6 +3.6
Majority 41 0.1
Turnout 44,745 69.1 +6.0

Leave Vote: 54.3%

Sitting MP: Amanda Solloway (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

One of the titghtest seats in the country, and Amanda Solloway cannot be 100% of holding this seat. However, the local elections will have encouraged her and are partly why I think the seat will remain Tory. She can also look forward to half of the UKIP vote coming to her.

5. Derby South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11729 (28.5%)
Labour: 17851 (43.3%)
Lib Dem: 8430 (20.5%)
UKIP: 1821 (4.4%)
Independent: 1357 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 6122 (14.9%)

2015 Result:
Labour Margaret Beckett 20,007 49.0 +5.7
Conservative Evonne Williams⁷ 11,179 27.4 -1.1
UKIP Victor Webb 6,341 15.5 +11.1
Liberal Democrat Joe Naitta⁸ 1,717 4.2 -16.3
Green David Foster⁹ 1,208 3.0 +3
TUSC Chris Fernandez¹⁰ 225 0.6 +0.6
British Independents David Gale¹¹¹² 143 0.4 +0.4
Majority 8,828 21.6 +6.7
Turnout 40,820 58.1 +0.1

Leave Vote: 61.4%

Sitting MP: Margaret Beckett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

6. Derbyshire Dales

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24378 (52.1%)
Labour: 9061 (19.4%)
Lib Dem: 10512 (22.5%)
Green: 772 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.8%)
Others: 278 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 13866 (29.6%)

2015 Results:
Conservative Patrick McLoughlin 24,805 52.4 +0.3
Labour Andy Botham 10,761 22.7 +3.4
UKIP John Young 5,508 11.6 +7.8
Liberal Democrat Ben Fearn 3,965 8.4 −14.1
Green Ian Wood 2,173 4.6 +2.9
Humanity Amila Y’Mech 149 0.3 +0.2
Majority 14,044 29.7 +0.1
Turnout 47,361 74.6 +0.8

Leave Vote: 51.2%

Sitting MP: Patrick McLoughlin (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Erewash

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18805 (39.5%)
Labour: 16304 (34.2%)
Lib Dem: 8343 (17.5%)
BNP: 2337 (4.9%)
Green: 534 (1.1%)
UKIP: 855 (1.8%)
Independent: 464 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2501 (5.2%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Maggie Throup 20,636 42.7 +3.2
Labour Catherine Atkinson 17,052 35.3 +1.1
UKIP Philip Rose 7,792 16.1 +14.3
Liberal Democrat Martin Garnett 1,658 3.4 −14.1
Green Ralph Hierons 1,184 2.5 +1.3
Majority 3,584 7.4 +2.2
Turnout 48,322 67.2

Leave Vote: 63.2%

Sitting MP: Maggie Throup (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. High Peak

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20587 (40.9%)
Labour: 15910 (31.6%)
Lib Dem: 10993 (21.8%)
Green: 922 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1690 (3.4%)
Independent: 161 (0.3%)
Others: 74 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 4677 (9.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Bingham 22,836 45.0 +4.1
Labour Caitlin Bisknell 17,942 35.3 +3.7
UKIP Ian Guiver 5,811 11.4 +8.0
Liberal Democrat Stephen Worrall 2,389 4.7 −17.1
Green Charlotte Farrell 1,811 3.6 +1.8
Majority 4,894 9.6 +0.3
Turnout 50,789 69.5 −0.4

Leave Vote: 50.5%

Sitting MP: Andrew Bingham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

9. Mid Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22877 (48.3%)
Labour: 11585 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 9711 (20.5%)
BNP: 1698 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1252 (2.6%)
Others: 219 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11292 (23.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Pauline Latham 24,908 52.2 +3.9
Labour Nicola Heaton 12,134 25.4 +1.0
UKIP Martin Fitzpatrick 6,497 13.6 +11
Liberal Democrat Hilary Jones⁴ 2,292 4.8 -15.7
Green Sue MacFarlane⁵ 1,898 4.0 +4.0
Majority 12,774 26.8 +2.9
Turnout 47,729 70.6 -0.8

Leave Vote: 52.5%

Sitting MP: Pauline Latham (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

10. North East Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15503 (33%)
Labour: 17948 (38.2%)
Lib Dem: 10947 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2636 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 2445 (5.2%)

2015 Result:
Labour Natascha Engel⁵ 19,488 40.6 +2.4
Conservative Lee Rowley⁵ 17,605 36.7 +3.7
UKIP James Bush⁶ 7,631 15.9 +10.3
Liberal Democrat David Batey⁷ 2,004 4.2 -19.1
Green David Kesteven⁸ 1,059 2.2 N/A
Independent Rob Lane 161 0.3 N/A
Majority 1,883 3.9 -1.3
Turnout 47,948 67.1 +1.2

Leave Vote: 62.1%

Sitting MP: Natascha Engel (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

11. South Derbyshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22935 (45.5%)
Labour: 15807 (31.4%)
Lib Dem: 8012 (15.9%)
BNP: 2193 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.4%)
Others: 266 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7128 (14.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Heather Wheeler 25,066 49.4 +3.9
Labour Cheryl Pidgeon⁵ 13,595 26.8 −4.6
UKIP Alan Graves⁶ 8,998 17.7 +15.3
Liberal Democrat Lorraine Johnson 1,887 3.7 −12.2
Green Marianne Bamkin⁷ 1,216 2.4 +2.4
Majority 11,471 22.6
Turnout 50,762 68.2

Leave Vote: 60.4%

Sitting MP: Heather Wheeler (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To all see previous predictions. click HERE