General Election 2017 Seat by Seat Predictions: 68. Staffordshire

STAFFORDSHIRE

Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after June 8: Con 11, Lab 1

1. Burton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22188 (44.5%)
Labour: 15884 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 7891 (15.8%)
BNP: 2409 (4.8%)
UKIP: 1451 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 6304 (12.7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Andrew Griffiths 24,736 50.1 +5.6
Labour Jon Wheale ⁶ 13,484 27.3 -4.5
UKIP Mike Green ⁶ 8,658 17.5 +14.6
Liberal Democrat David MacDonald ⁷ 1,232 2.5 -13.3
Green Samantha Patrone ⁸ 1,224 2.5 +2.5
Majority 11,252 22.8 +10.1
Turnout 49,334 65.5 -1.0

Leave Vote: 64.8%

Sitting MP: Andrew Griffiths (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Cannock Chase

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18271 (40.1%)
Labour: 15076 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 7732 (17%)
BNP: 2168 (4.8%)
UKIP: 1580 (3.5%)
Independent: 380 (0.8%)
Others: 352 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 3195 (7%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Amanda Milling ⁷ 20,811 44.2 Increase 4.1
Labour Janos Toth ⁷ 15,888 33.7 Increase 0.6
UKIP Grahame Wiggin ⁸ 8,224 17.5 Increase 14.0
Liberal Democrat Ian Jackson ⁹ 1,270 2.7 Decrease 14.3
Green Paul Woodhead ¹⁰ 906 1.9 Increase 1.9
Majority 4,923 10.5 Increase 3.5
Turnout 47,099 63.2 Increase 2.1

Leave Vote: 68.9%

Sitting MP: Amanda Milling (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

3. Lichfield

2010 Result:
Conservative: 28048 (54.4%)
Labour: 10230 (19.8%)
Lib Dem: 10365 (20.1%)
UKIP: 2920 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 17683 (34.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Michael Fabricant 28,389 55.2 +0.8
Labour Chris Worsey 10,200 19.8 0.0
UKIP John Rackham 8,082 15.7 +10.0
Liberal Democrat Paul Ray 2,700 5.6 -14.9
Green Robert Pass 1,976 3.8 +3.8
Class War Andy Bennetts 120 0.2 +0.2
Majority 18,189 35.3 +2.7
Turnout 51,467 69.3¹¹ -1.7

Leave Vote: 57,5%

Sitting MP: Michael Fabricant (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

4. Newcastle Under Lyme

2010 Result:
Conservative: 14841 (34.4%)
Labour: 16393 (38%)
Lib Dem: 8466 (19.6%)
UKIP: 3491 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 1552 (3.6%)

2015 Result:
Labour Paul Farrelly 16,520 38.4 +0.5
Conservative Tony Cox 15,870 36.9 +2.5
UKIP Phil Wood 7,252 16.9 +8.8
Liberal Democrat Ian Wilkes 1,826 4.2 -15.4
Green Sam Gibbons 1,246 2.9 +2.9
Independent David E. Nixon 283 0.7 +0.7
Majority 650 1.5
Turnout 42,997 62.6 +0.4

Leave Vote: 61.6%

Sitting MP: Paul Farrelly (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

This seat had a Labour majority of more than 17,000 in 1997. Given it’s only 650 now, it would be a shock if the Tories don’t win it this time.

5. South Staffordshire

2010 Result:
Conservative: 26834 (53.2%)
Labour: 10244 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 8427 (16.7%)
BNP: 1928 (3.8%)
UKIP: 2753 (5.5%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16590 (32.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Gavin Williamson 29,478 59.4 +6.2
Labour Kevin McElduff 9,107 18.4 -1.9
UKIP Lyndon Jones⁷ 8,267 16.7 +11.2
Liberal Democrat Robert Woodthorpe Browne 1,448 2.9 -13.8
Green Claire McIlvenna⁸ 1,298 2.6 +2.6
Majority 20,371 41.1
Turnout 49,598 58.9

Leave Vote: 65.5%

Sitting MP: Gavin Williamson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

6. Stafford

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22047 (43.9%)
Labour: 16587 (33%)
Lib Dem: 8211 (16.3%)
BNP: 1103 (2.2%)
Green: 564 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1727 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 5460 (10.9%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Jeremy Lefroy 23,606 48.4 +4.5
Labour Kate Godfrey 14,429 29.6 −3.4
UKIP Edward Whitfield 6,293 12.9 +9.5
National Health Action Karen Howell 1,701 3.5 N/A
Green Mike Shone 1,390 2.9 +1.7
Liberal Democrat Keith Miller 1,348 2.8 -13.6
Majority 9,177 18.8
Turnout 48,767 71

Leave Vote: 57.5%

Sitting MP: Jeremy Lefroy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

7. Staffordshire Moorlands

2010 Result:
Conservative: 19793 (45.2%)
Labour: 13104 (29.9%)
Lib Dem: 7338 (16.7%)
UKIP: 3580 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 6689 (15.3%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Karen Bradley 21,770 51.1 +5.9
Labour Trudie McGuinness⁹ 11,596 27.2 -2.7
UKIP George Langley-Poole 6,236 14.6 +6.5
Liberal Democrat John Redfern¹⁰ 1,759 4.1 -12.6
Green Brian Smith¹¹ 1,226 2.9 +2.9
Majority 10,174 23.9 +9.2
Turnout 42,587

Leave Vote: 64.7%

Sitting MP: Karen Bradley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

8. Stoke on Trent Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6833 (21%)
Labour: 12605 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7039 (21.7%)
BNP: 2502 (7.7%)
UKIP: 1402 (4.3%)
TUSC: 133 (0.4%)
Independent: 959 (3%)
Others: 997 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 5566 (17.1%)

2015 Result:
Labour Tristram Hunt 12,220 39.3 Increase 0.5
UKIP Mick Harold 7,041 22.7 Increase 18.3
Conservative Liam Marshall-Ascough 7,008 22.5 Increase 1.5
Independent Mark Breeze 2,120 6.8 Increase 6.8
Liberal Democrat Zulfiqar Ali¹³ 1,296 4.2 Decrease 17.5
Green Jan Zablocki¹⁴ 1,123 3.6 Increase 3.6
CISTA Ali Majid 244 0.8 Increase 0.8
The Ubuntu Party Paul Toussaint 32 0.1 Increase 0.1
Majority 5,179 16.7
Turnout 31,084 49.9

BY ELECTION RESULT
Labour Gareth Snell 7,853 37.1 Decrease 2.2
UKIP Paul Nuttall 5,233 24.7 Increase 2.1
Conservative Jack Brereton 5,154 24.3 Increase 1.8
Liberal Democrat Zulfiqar Ali 2,083 9.8 Increase 5.7
Green Adam Colclough 294 1.4 Decrease 2.2
Independent Barbara Fielding 137 0.6 N/A
Monster Raving Loony The Incredible Flying Brick 127 0.6 N/A
BNP David Furness 124 0.6 N/A
Christian Peoples Godfrey Davies 109 0.5 N/A
Independent Mohammad Akram 56 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,620 12.4 Decrease 4.3
Turnout 21,200 38.2 Decrease 11.7

Leave Vote: 64.8%

Sitting MP: Gareth Snell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Will be one to watch, given the narrow margin of the by-election victory, but it all depends how the UKIP cookie crumbles.

9. Stoke on Trent North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9580 (23.8%)
Labour: 17815 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 7120 (17.7%)
BNP: 3196 (8%)
UKIP: 2485 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 8235 (20.5%)

2015 Result:
Labour Ruth Smeeth 15,429 39.9 Decrease 4.4
Conservative Benedict Adams 10,593 27.4 Increase 3.6
UKIP Geoff Locke 9,542 24.7 Increase 18.5
Liberal Democrat Paul Roberts 1,137 2.9 Decrease 14.8
Green Sean Adam 1,091 2.8 Increase 2.8
Independent John Millward 508 1.3 Increase 1.3
Independent Craig Pond ⁵⁶ 354 0.9 Increase 0.9
Majority 4,836 12.5 Decrease 8.0
Turnout 38,654 53.2 Decrease 2.6

Leave Vote: 72.1%

Sitting MP: Ruth Smeeth (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Ruth Smeeth has had a high profile nationally, but this is a seat which has been gradually going Tory for 20 years. A Tory gain would not be a surprise. The Leave vote is also a factor.

10. Stoke on Trent South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 11316 (28.4%)
Labour: 15446 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 6323 (15.9%)
BNP: 3762 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.4%)
Independent: 434 (1.1%)
Others: 1208 (3%)
MAJORITY: 4130 (10.4%)

2015 Result:
Labour Robert Flello 15,319 39.2 Increase 0.4
Conservative Joe Rich 12,780 32.7 Increase 4.3
UKIP Tariq Mahmood 8,298 21.2 Increase 17.8
Liberal Democrat Peter Andras 1,309 3.3 Decrease 12.6
Green Luke Bellamy 1,029 2.6 N/A
TUSC Matthew Wright 372 1.0 N/A
Majority 2,539 6.5 Decrease 3.9
Turnout 39,107 57.3 Decrease 1.5

Leave Vote: 71.1%

Sitting MP: Robert Flello (Lab)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Similar to Stoke on Trent North. Flello will do well to hold this seat.

11. Stone

2010 Result:
Conservative: 23890 (50.6%)
Labour: 9770 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 10598 (22.4%)
Green: 490 (1%)
UKIP: 2481 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 13292 (28.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Bill Cash 25,733 54.7 +4.1
Labour Sam Hale 9,483 20.2 -0.5
UKIP Andrew Illsley⁷ 7,620 16.2 +10.9
Liberal Democrat Martin Lewis 2,473 5.3 -17.1
Green Wenslie Naylon 1,191 2.5 +1.5
Independent John Coutouvidis 531 1.1 +1.1
Majority 16,250 34.6
Turnout 47,031 70.1

Leave Vote: 57.5%

Sitting MP: Sir Bill Cash (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

12. Tamworth

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21238 (45.8%)
Labour: 15148 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7516 (16.2%)
UKIP: 2253 (4.9%)
Christian: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6090 (13.1%)

2015 Result:
Conservative Christopher Pincher¹⁰ 23,606 50.0 +4.3
Labour Carol Dean¹⁰ 12,304 26.1 −6.6
UKIP Janet Higgins¹⁰ 8,727 18.5 +13.6
Liberal Democrat Jennifer Pinkett¹⁰ 1,427 3.0 −13.2
Green Nicola Holmes¹⁰ 1,110 2.4 +2.4
Majority 11,302 24.0 +10.9
Turnout 47,174 65.6 +1.8

Sitting MP: Chris Pincher (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

To all see previous predictions. click HERE