This is the fiftteenth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, Lab 1
1. Chippenham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21500 (41%)
Labour: 3620 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 23970 (45.8%)
BNP: 641 (1.2%)
Green: 446 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1783 (3.4%)
English Dem: 307 (0.6%)
Christian: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 2470 (4.7%)
Sitting MP: Duncan Hames (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Although is majority isn’t big, Duncan Hames has dug himself in since winning the seat in 2010 and will be difficult to shift. But the Tory candidate Michelle Donelan is a good campaigner. Yet again, her success depends on warding off UKIP and encouraging LibDems to vote Labour.
2. Devizes
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25519 (55.1%)
Labour: 4711 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 12514 (27%)
Green: 813 (1.8%)
UKIP: 2076 (4.5%)
Independent: 566 (1.2%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 13005 (28.1%)
Sitting MP: Claire Perry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
3. North Swindon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22408 (44.6%)
Labour: 15348 (30.5%)
Lib Dem: 8668 (17.2%)
BNP: 1542 (3.1%)
Green: 487 (1%)
UKIP: 1842 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 7060 (14%)
Sitting MP: Justin Tomlinson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
The Swindon seats are traditionally bellweather seats. Boundary changes before the last election certainly aided a Tory win and may continue to protect Justin Tomlinson here. It’s worth pointing out he got the biggest swing in the South-West in 2005 (cutting the Lab majority from 8,500 to 2,500) and then again in 2010 (winning with a 7,060 majority). In the recent local elections the Tories made gains off Labour in North Swindon (but slipped back in South). Six of the 10 wards were also record results and the Tories have won two Council by-elections with stonking majorities in what were marginal seats. Local election results are not necessarily good guides as to what a general election may portent, but I predict Tomlinson will hold his seat but only very narrowly. If Ed Miliband is heading for Number 10 he will need to prove me wrong in seats like this.
4. North Wiltshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25114 (51.6%)
Labour: 3239 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 17631 (36.2%)
Green: 599 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1908 (3.9%)
Independent: 208 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7483 (15.4%)
Sitting MP: James Gray (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat and a lot of LibDem votes to go elsewhere.
5. Salisbury
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23859 (49.2%)
Labour: 3690 (7.6%)
Lib Dem: 17893 (36.9%)
BNP: 765 (1.6%)
Green: 506 (1%)
UKIP: 1392 (2.9%)
Independent: 257 (0.5%)
Others: 119 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5966 (12.3%
Sitting MP: John Glen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
The LibDems have always held hopes of taking Salisbury, even back in the 1980s and 1990s. But it’s never quite happened. It won’t happen in May either but i expect them to retain more of their vote here than in other seats where they are a good second.
6. South Swindon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19687 (41.8%)
Labour: 16143 (34.3%)
Lib Dem: 8305 (17.6%)
Green: 619 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2029 (4.3%)
Christian: 176 (0.4%)
Independent: 160 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3544 (7.5%)
Sitting MP: Robert Buckland (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
Very difficult one to predict and anythings could happen here, but on balance I feel Labour may well just snatch it.
7. South West Wiltshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25321 (51.7%)
Labour: 5613 (11.5%)
Lib Dem: 14954 (30.5%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.5%)
Independent: 446 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 10367 (21.1%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Murrison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
Coming next: Dorset
To see previous predictions, click HERE
