This is the nineteenth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Surrey
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 11
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 11
1. East Surrey
2010 Result:
Conservative: 31007 (56.7%)
Labour: 4925 (9%)
Lib Dem: 14133 (25.9%)
UKIP: 3770 (6.9%)
Independent: 383 (0.7%)
Others: 422 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 16874 (30.9%)
Sitting MP: Sam Gyimah
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
2. Epsom & Ewell
2010 Result:
Conservative: 30868 (56.2%)
Labour: 6538 (11.9%)
Lib Dem: 14734 (26.8%)
UKIP: 2549 (4.6%)
Others: 266 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16134 (29.4%)
Sitting MP: Chris Grayling (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
3. Esher & Walton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 32134 (58.9%)
Labour: 5829 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 13541 (24.8%)
UKIP: 1783 (3.3%)
English Dem: 307 (0.6%)
Independent: 378 (0.7%)
Others: 571 (1%)
MAJORITY: 18593 (34.1%)
Sitting MP: Dominic Raab (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
4. Guildford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29618 (53.3%)
Labour: 2812 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 21836 (39.3%)
UKIP: 1021 (1.8%)
Others: 280 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7782 (14%)
Sitting MP: Anne Milton (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Former LibDem seat, Anne Milton has turned this into a safe Tory seat and her majority will increase to more than 10,000 in 2015.
5. Mole Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 31263 (57.5%)
Labour: 3804 (7%)
Lib Dem: 15610 (28.7%)
Green: 895 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2752 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 15653 (28.8%)
Sitting MP: Sir Paul Beresford (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
6. Reigate
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26688 (53.4%)
Labour: 5672 (11.3%)
Lib Dem: 13097 (26.2%)
BNP: 1345 (2.7%)
Green: 1087 (2.2%)
UKIP: 2089 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 13591 (27.2%)
Sitting MP: Crispin Blunt (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Crispin Blunt has had a troubled time here of late with a deselection attempt souring his relationship with his constituency association. His public ‘coming’ out did not sit well with some of his local members. However, he is likely to increase his majority due to crumbling LibDem support.
7. Runneymede & Weybridge
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26915 (55.9%)
Labour: 6446 (13.4%)
Lib Dem: 10406 (21.6%)
Green: 696 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3146 (6.5%)
Independent: 541 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 16509 (34.3%)
Sitting MP: Philip Hammond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
8. South West Surrey
2010 Result:
Conservative: 33605 (58.7%)
Labour: 3419 (6%)
Lib Dem: 17287 (30.2%)
BNP: 644 (1.1%)
Green: 690 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1486 (2.6%)
Others: 128 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 16318 (28.5%)
Sitting MP: Jeremy Hunt (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
This seat has always been a LibDem target but first Virginia Bottomley, and now Jeremy Hunt, have seen them off. Their vote declined substantially in 2010 and it’s only going to go one way now.
9. Spelthorne
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22261 (47.1%)
Labour: 7789 (16.5%)
Lib Dem: 12242 (25.9%)
UKIP: 4009 (8.5%)
TUSC: 176 (0.4%)
Independent: 314 (0.7%)
Others: 513 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10019 (21.2%)
Sitting MP: Kwasi Kwarteng (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat
10. Surrey Heath
2010 Result:
Conservative: 31326 (57.6%)
Labour: 5552 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 14037 (25.8%)
UKIP: 3432 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 17289 (31.8%)
Sitting MP: Michael Gove (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
11. Woking
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26551 (50.3%)
Labour: 4246 (8%)
Lib Dem: 19744 (37.4%)
UKIP: 1997 (3.8%)
Others: 248 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6807 (12.9%)
Sitting MP: Jonathan Lord (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Huge LibDem vote here, which will inevitably reduce, which in turn should mean a bigger majority for Jonathan Lord.
Coming next: Devon
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19
