This is the nineteenth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Devon
Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 2, LibDem 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 3, LibDem 2
1. Central Devon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27737 (51.5%)
Labour: 3715 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 18507 (34.4%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2870 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 9230 (17.1%)
Sitting MP: Mel Stride (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
2. East Devon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25662 (48.3%)
Labour: 5721 (10.8%)
Lib Dem: 16548 (31.2%)
Green: 815 (1.5%)
UKIP: 4346 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 9114 (17.2%)
Sitting MP: Hugo Swire (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority.
Safe seat. Big LibDem vote to splinter, leading to increased Tory majority.
3. Exeter
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17221 (33%)
Labour: 19942 (38.2%)
Lib Dem: 10581 (20.3%)
BNP: 673 (1.3%)
Green: 792 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1930 (3.7%)
Liberal: 1108 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2721 (5.2%
Sitting MP: Ben Bradshaw (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This is by no means a safe Labour seat. In 2010 Bradshaw’s majority fell by 5,000, but the student vote should see him home safely enough.
4. Newton Abbot
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20774 (43%)
Labour: 3387 (7%)
Lib Dem: 20251 (41.9%)
Green: 701 (1.5%)
UKIP: 3088 (6.4%)
Independent: 82 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 523 (1.1%)
Sitting MP: Anne-Marie Morris (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Having been a LibDem seat for two terms this highly marginal seat returned to the Tories last time, but by a whisker. The LibDems will hope that UKIP eats into the Tory vote, but erstwhile Labour supporters may decide to return home as well. Difficult to call, but I’d say this is most likely to remain Tory.
5. North Devon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18484 (36%)
Labour: 2671 (5.2%)
Lib Dem: 24305 (47.4%)
BNP: 614 (1.2%)
Green: 697 (1.4%)
UKIP: 3720 (7.2%)
English Dem: 146 (0.3%)
Independent: 588 (1.1%)
Others: 96 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5821 (11.3%)
Sitting MP: Sir Nick Harvey (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Ever since this seat was wrested back from the Conservatives in 1992 pundits have predicted it would return to the Tories, but astute constituency campaigning by Nick Harvey has prevented this from happening. I don’t see this changing. This seat has a strong UKIP vote which inevitable depresses that of the Conservatives.
6. Plymouth Moor View
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13845 (33.3%)
Labour: 15433 (37.2%)
Lib Dem: 7016 (16.9%)
BNP: 1438 (3.5%)
Green: 398 (1%)
UKIP: 3188 (7.7%)
Others: 208 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1588 (3.8%)
Sitting MP: Alison Seabeck (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Plymouth seats are notoriously volatile, but I can’t see this seat remaining Labour despite the precarious nature of its majority. Unless there are demographic circumstances which have changed since the last election Alison Seabeck will get another five years.
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15050 (34.3%)
Labour: 13901 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 10829 (24.7%)
Green: 904 (2.1%)
UKIP: 2854 (6.5%)
Independent: 233 (0.5%)
Others: 123 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1149 (2.6%)
Sitting MP: Oliver Colville (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
A genuine three way marginal last time, Labour will be hoping to retake a seat they held during the entirety of the Blair/Brown years. It’s difficult to see the Tories managing to hang onto this seat.
8. South West Devon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27908 (56%)
Labour: 6193 (12.4%)
Lib Dem: 12034 (24.1%)
Green: 641 (1.3%)
UKIP: 3084 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 15874 (31.8%)
Sitting MP: Gary Streeter (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
9. Tiverton & Honiton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27614 (50.3%)
Labour: 4907 (8.9%)
Lib Dem: 18294 (33.3%)
Green: 802 (1.5%)
UKIP: 3277 (6%)
MAJORITY: 9320 (17%)
Sitting MP: Neil Parrish (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat.
10. Torbay
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19048 (38.7%)
Labour: 3231 (6.6%)
Lib Dem: 23126 (47%)
BNP: 709 (1.4%)
Green: 468 (1%)
UKIP: 2628 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 4078 (8.3%)
Sitting MP: Adrian Sanders (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Regarded as a surefire Tory gain in 2010 it didn’t happen, and in all honesty Adrian Sanders has built up a string personal vote which may carry him through once again.
11. Torridge & West Devon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25230 (45.7%)
Labour: 2917 (5.3%)
Lib Dem: 22273 (40.3%)
BNP: 766 (1.4%)
Green: 1050 (1.9%)
UKIP: 3021 (5.5%)
MAJORITY: 2957 (5.4%)
Sitting MP: Geoffrey Cox (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
The LibDems had high hopes of taking back this seat last time but one feels their moment has passed, although we shouldn’t forget they did hold it between 1997 and 2005.
12. Totnes
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21940 (45.9%)
Labour: 3538 (7.4%)
Lib Dem: 17013 (35.6%)
BNP: 624 (1.3%)
Green: 1181 (2.5%)
UKIP: 2890 (6%)
Independent: 390 (0.8%)
Others: 267 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4927 (10.3%)
Sitting MP: Dr Sarah Wollaston (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat.
Coming next: Cornwall
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
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