This is the twenty-second in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Avon
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 2, LibDem 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 3, LibDem 3
1. Bath
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14768 (31.4%)
Labour: 3251 (6.9%)
Lib Dem: 26651 (56.6%)
Green: 1120 (2.4%)
UKIP: 890 (1.9%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 56 (0.1%)
Others: 100 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 11883 (25.2%)
Sitting MP: Don Foster (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
The Conservatives have been desperate to win this seat back since Chris Patten lost it in 1992, but it’s extremely unlikely to revert to the fold despite the fact that Don Foster is standing down.
2. Bristol East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12749 (28.3%)
Labour: 16471 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 10993 (24.4%)
BNP: 1960 (4.4%)
Green: 803 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1510 (3.4%)
English Dem: 347 (0.8%)
TUSC: 184 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3722 (8.3%)
Sitting MP: Kerry McCarthy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This has consistently been a Labour seat and Kerry McCarthy is likely to increase her majority here.
3. Bristol North West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19115 (38%)
Labour: 13059 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 15841 (31.5%)
Green: 511 (1%)
UKIP: 1175 (2.3%)
English Dem: 635 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 3274 (6.5%)
Sitting MP: Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
A Labour seat throughout the Blair/Brown years Charlotte Leslie did well to win this last time. It was due to a huge rise in the LibDem vote and a collapse in the Labour vote from 47% to 26%. Labour’s chances of winning this seat back depend entirely on whether they can win those LibDem voters back. Local opinion seems to suggest that Charlotte Leslie may well squeak home.
4. Bristol South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11086 (22.9%)
Labour: 18600 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 13866 (28.7%)
BNP: 1739 (3.6%)
Green: 1216 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1264 (2.6%)
English Dem: 400 (0.8%)
TUSC: 206 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4734 (9.8%)
Sitting MP: Dawn Primarolo (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe Labour seat.
5. Bristol West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10169 (18.4%)
Labour: 15227 (27.5%)
Lib Dem: 26593 (48%)
Green: 2090 (3.8%)
UKIP: 655 (1.2%)
English Dem: 270 (0.5%)
Independent: 343 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11366 (20.5%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Given the size of Stephen Williams’ majority I had this in the Dead Cert Hold category, but there is a big student vote in this seat and that could prove to be his downfall. So I have relegated this seat to Probable. But overturning an 11,000 majority is probably too much for Labour. Probably.
6. Filton & Bradley Stoke
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19686 (40.8%)
Labour: 12772 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 12197 (25.3%)
BNP: 1328 (2.7%)
Green: 441 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
Christian: 199 (0.4%)
Others: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6914 (14.3%)
Sitting MP: Jack Lopresti (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
This was a new seat and was expected to be a three way marginal last time. However, it didn’t quite turn out like that. A lot depends on whether the opposition to the Tories is still split evenly in 2015. I expect a much reduced Tory majority here.
7. Kingswood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19362 (40.4%)
Labour: 16917 (35.3%)
Lib Dem: 8072 (16.8%)
BNP: 1311 (2.7%)
Green: 383 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1528 (3.2%)
English Dem: 333 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2445 (5.1%)
Sitting MP: Chris Skidmore (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
If Chris Skidmore pulls this one off, he’ll be the toast of CCHQ. Sadly for him, it is unlikely to happen. This had been quite a safe Labour seat in the previous four elections and unless there are demographic changes afoot here that I am not aware of, it’s most likely to return to the Labour fold.
8. North East Somerset
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21130 (41.3%)
Labour: 16216 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 11433 (22.3%)
Green: 670 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1754 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 4914 (9.6%)
Sitting MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
It’s unthinkable to imagine Parliament without Jacob Rees-Mogg, but there’s no mistake that he’s under threat from Labour here. They held the seat from 1997 to 2010 and will be going after the substantial LibDem vote.
9. North Somerset
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28549 (49.3%)
Labour: 6448 (11.1%)
Lib Dem: 20687 (35.7%)
UKIP: 2257 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 7862 (13.6%)
Sitting MP: Liam Fox (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat.
10. Thornbury & Yate
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17916 (37.2%)
Labour: 3385 (7%)
Lib Dem: 25032 (51.9%)
UKIP: 1709 (3.5%)
Others: 184 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7116 (14.8%)
Sitting MP: Steve Webb (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
I had this down as a Dead Cert LibDem Hold but if Labour perform strongly and take enough votes off the LibDems this seat could go Conservative. I still expect Steve Webb to retain it as he will have built up quite a substantial incumbency vote.
11. Weston Super Mare
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23356 (44.3%)
Labour: 5772 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 20665 (39.2%)
BNP: 1098 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1406 (2.7%)
English Dem: 275 (0.5%)
Independent: 144 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2691 (5.1%)
Sitting MP: John Penrose (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
About to become a safe seat.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
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