This is the twenty-third in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Leicestershire
Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 3
1. Bosworth
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23132 (42.6%)
Labour: 8674 (16%)
Lib Dem: 18100 (33.3%)
BNP: 2458 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1098 (2%)
English Dem: 615 (1.1%)
Others: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5032 (9.3%)
Sitting MP: David Tredinnick (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat.
2. Charnwood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26560 (49.6%)
Labour: 10536 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 11531 (21.5%)
BNP: 3116 (5.8%)
UKIP: 1799 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 15029 (28.1%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Dorrell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
3. Harborough
010 Result:
Conservative: 26894 (48.9%)
Labour: 6981 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 17097 (31.1%)
BNP: 1715 (3.1%)
UKIP: 1462 (2.7%)
English Dem: 568 (1%)
Independent: 228 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9797 (17.8%)
Sitting MP: Edward Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
4. Leicester East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11722 (24.4%)
Labour: 25804 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 6817 (14.2%)
BNP: 1700 (3.5%)
Green: 733 (1.5%)
UKIP: 725 (1.5%)
Others: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 14082 (29.3%)
Sitting MP: Keith Vaz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
5. Leicester South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10066 (21.4%)
Labour: 21479 (45.6%)
Lib Dem: 12671 (26.9%)
BNP: 1418 (3%)
Green: 770 (1.6%)
UKIP: 720 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 8808 (18.7%)
Sitting MP: Jonathan Ashworth (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat. Briefly held by the LibDems in a pre 2010 by-election, but they don’t stand a hope here now.
6. Leicester West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9728 (27.2%)
Labour: 13745 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 8107 (22.6%)
BNP: 2158 (6%)
Green: 639 (1.8%)
UKIP: 883 (2.5%)
TUSC: 157 (0.4%)
Independent: 181 (0.5%)
Others: 221 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4017 (11.2%)
Sitting MP: Liz Kendall (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The most marginal of the three Leicester seats, but Liz Kendall is quite safe.
7. Loughborough
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21971 (41.6%)
Labour: 18227 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9675 (18.3%)
BNP: 2040 (3.9%)
UKIP: 925 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 3744 (7.1%)
Sitting MP: Nicky Morgan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Very difficult to call, this one. Nicky Morgan may be saved by her high profile and the fact that she has established a good reputation locally. However, the LibDems have scored 18% of the vote here in the last three general elections. All it needs is for a substantial amount of the that vote to transfer to Labour and Nicky Morgan is toast. Interestingly UKIP only score 1.8% here, but the BNP got 3.9%. where that vote goes, will also be important. Nicky Morgan is a good friend and I’d love to be confident she can pull through here, but my prediction has to be guided by the electoral arithmetic and nothing else. UPDATE 12/1/15: I’m revising this prediction to a Conservative hold due to further information I have received on the seat and also because of polling information I had missed, including the Ashcroft constituency poll, which puts Nicky Morgan ahead by three points.
8. North West Leicestershire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23147 (44.6%)
Labour: 15636 (30.1%)
Lib Dem: 8639 (16.6%)
BNP: 3396 (6.5%)
UKIP: 1134 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 7511 (14.5%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Bridgen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
This looks like a safe Conservative seat but isn’t. Through the Blair/Brown years it was held by Labour and could go Labour again if there was a reasonable sized Labour majority. All indications are, thought, that the seat will remain Tory, albeit with a reduced majority.
9. Rutland & Melton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28228 (51.1%)
Labour: 7893 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 14228 (25.8%)
BNP: 1757 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2526 (4.6%)
Independent: 588 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 14000 (25.4%)
Sitting MP: Sir Alan Duncan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
10. South Leicestershire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27000 (49.5%)
Labour: 11392 (20.9%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (21%)
BNP: 2721 (5%)
UKIP: 1988 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 15524 (28.4%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Robothan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Seaf seat
Coming next: Staffordshire
To all see previous predictions. click HERE
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