This is the twenty-fourth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Staffordshire
Seats: 12
Current Political Makeup: Con 8, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 5
1. Burton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22188 (44.5%)
Labour: 15884 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 7891 (15.8%)
BNP: 2409 (4.8%)
UKIP: 1451 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 6304 (12.7%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Griffiths (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
Andrew Griffiths has made the constituency his priority and his hope will be that this strategy has paid off. He’s got a biger majority than Labour ever enjoyed during the years they held the seat between 1997 and 2010 and that’s why I think he’ll hand on. Just.
2. Cannock Chase
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18271 (40.1%)
Labour: 15076 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 7732 (17%)
BNP: 2168 (4.8%)
UKIP: 1580 (3.5%)
Independent: 380 (0.8%)
Others: 352 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 3195 (7%)
Sitting MP: Aidan Burley (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
Burley his standing down after ‘Nazigate’ and this certainly will help the Labour cause. It’s not a lost cause for the Tories but the odds are that Labour will regain a seat they held from 1992 to 2010. UPDATE: UKIP got 33% here in June. But who will their votes be taken from?
3. Lichfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28048 (54.4%)
Labour: 10230 (19.8%)
Lib Dem: 10365 (20.1%)
UKIP: 2920 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 17683 (34.3%)
Sitting MP: Michael Fabricant (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
4. Newcastle Under Lyme
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14841 (34.4%)
Labour: 16393 (38%)
Lib Dem: 8466 (19.6%)
UKIP: 3491 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 1552 (3.6%)
Sitting MP: Paul Farrelly (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This seat had a Labour majority of more than 17,000 in 1997. Given it’s only 1552 now, this seat must surely be in the Tories’ longterm sights. There’s a substantial LibDem vote for both parties to bite into. I would expect the majority of this to go to Labour, so Paul Farrelly’s majority ought to increase.
5. South Staffordshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26834 (53.2%)
Labour: 10244 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 8427 (16.7%)
BNP: 1928 (3.8%)
UKIP: 2753 (5.5%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16590 (32.9%)
Sitting MP: Gavin Williamson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
6. Stafford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22047 (43.9%)
Labour: 16587 (33%)
Lib Dem: 8211 (16.3%)
BNP: 1103 (2.2%)
Green: 564 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1727 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 5460 (10.9%)
Sitting MP: Jeremy Lefroy (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
This is a very difficult one to call. It was a Tory seat until 1997 and then went Labour until 2010. Staffordshire does seem to moving away from Labour and it has to be said that the local election results here don’t point towards very good results for Labour. I’m going with my gut instinct, which is a Tory hold but with a very small majority.
7. Staffordshire Moorlands
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19793 (45.2%)
Labour: 13104 (29.9%)
Lib Dem: 7338 (16.7%)
UKIP: 3580 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 6689 (15.3%)
Sitting MP: Karen Bradley (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Another seat which Labour held during the Blair/Brown years. Overturning a majority of this size in one go might be beyond Labour this time.
8. Stoke on Trent Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6833 (21%)
Labour: 12605 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7039 (21.7%)
BNP: 2502 (7.7%)
UKIP: 1402 (4.3%)
TUSC: 133 (0.4%)
Independent: 959 (3%)
Others: 997 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 5566 (17.1%)
Sitting MP: Tristram Hunt (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Realtively safe Labour seat, even though the majority doesn’t look that high.
9. Stoke on Trent North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9580 (23.8%)
Labour: 17815 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 7120 (17.7%)
BNP: 3196 (8%)
UKIP: 2485 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 8235 (20.5%)
Sitting MP: Joan Walley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
10. Stoke on Trent South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11316 (28.4%)
Labour: 15446 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 6323 (15.9%)
BNP: 3762 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.4%)
Independent: 434 (1.1%)
Others: 1208 (3%)
MAJORITY: 4130 (10.4%)
Sitting MP: Robert Flello (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
11. Stone
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23890 (50.6%)
Labour: 9770 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 10598 (22.4%)
Green: 490 (1%)
UKIP: 2481 (5.3%)
MAJORITY: 13292 (28.1%)
Sitting MP: Sir Bill Cash (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
12. Tamworth
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21238 (45.8%)
Labour: 15148 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7516 (16.2%)
UKIP: 2253 (4.9%)
Christian: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6090 (13.1%)
Sitting MP: Chris Pincher (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
Another former Labour seat which got a good sized Tory majority in 2010. It’s possible that Labour could take it back but all the electoral stars would need to align, including Labour gaining much of the former LibDem vote.
Coming next: Derbyshire
To all see previous predictions. click HERE
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