This is the forty-fourth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Shropshire
Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 1
1. Ludlow
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25720 (52.8%)
Labour: 3272 (6.7%)
Lib Dem: 15971 (32.8%)
BNP: 1016 (2.1%)
Green: 447 (0.9%)
UKIP: 2127 (4.4%)
Others: 179 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9749 (20%)
Sitting MP: Philip Dunne (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
2. North Shropshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26692 (51.5%)
Labour: 9406 (18.1%)
Lib Dem: 10864 (20.9%)
BNP: 1667 (3.2%)
Green: 808 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2432 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 15828 (30.5%)
Sitting MP: Owen Paterson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
3. Shrewsbury & Atcham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23313 (43.9%)
Labour: 10915 (20.6%)
Lib Dem: 15369 (29%)
BNP: 1168 (2.2%)
Green: 565 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1627 (3.1%)
Others: 88 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7944 (15%)
Sitting MP: Daniel Kawczynski (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
This could be a four way marginal. UKIP’s deputy chairman, the impressive Suzanne Evans is standing here and UKIP think they could have a real impact on the result here. Labour are now in third place in a seat they held between 1997 and 2005.
4. Telford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14996 (36.3%)
Labour: 15974 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6399 (15.5%)
BNP: 1513 (3.7%)
UKIP: 2428 (5.9%)
MAJORITY: 978 (2.4%)
Sitting MP: David Wright (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Very narrow hold for Labour last time. This is a seat where the Labour vote has plummeted from 58% to 39% since 1997. However, if the Tories didn’t win in 2010, can they really pull it off this time, especially given the interference of UKIP?
5. The Wrekin
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21922 (47.7%)
Labour: 12472 (27.1%)
Lib Dem: 8019 (17.4%)
BNP: 1505 (3.3%)
UKIP: 2050 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 9450 (20.6%)
Sitting MP: Mark Pritchard (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
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