This is the forty-eighth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
South Yorkshire
Seats: 14
Current Political Makeup: Lab 13, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 13, LibDem 1
1. Barnsley Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6388 (17.3%)
Labour: 17487 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6394 (17.3%)
BNP: 3307 (8.9%)
UKIP: 1727 (4.7%)
Independent: 732 (2%)
Others: 966 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 11093 (30%)
Sitting MP: Dan Jarvis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
2. Barnsley East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6329 (16.5%)
Labour: 18059 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6969 (18.2%)
BNP: 3301 (8.6%)
UKIP: 1731 (4.5%)
Independent: 712 (1.9%)
Others: 1285 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 11090 (28.9%)
Sitting MP: Michael Dugher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
3. Don Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12877 (29.7%)
Labour: 16472 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 7422 (17.1%)
BNP: 2112 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1904 (4.4%)
English Dem: 1756 (4%)
Independent: 877 (2%)
MAJORITY: 3595 (8.3%)
Sitting MP: Caroline Flint (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
Not a safe seat, but will be after May, as the LibDem vote splinters to Labour.
4. Doncaster Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10340 (24.8%)
Labour: 16569 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 8795 (21.1%)
BNP: 1762 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1421 (3.4%)
English Dem: 1816 (4.4%)
Independent: 970 (2.3%)
Others: 72 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6229 (14.9%)
Sitting MP: Rosie Winterton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
5. Doncaster North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8728 (21%)
Labour: 19637 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6174 (14.9%)
BNP: 2818 (6.8%)
UKIP: 1797 (4.3%)
English Dem: 2148 (5.2%)
TUSC: 181 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10909 (26.3%)
Sitting MP: Ed Miliband (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
6. Penistone & Stocksbridge
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14516 (31.2%)
Labour: 17565 (37.8%)
Lib Dem: 9800 (21.1%)
BNP: 2207 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1936 (4.2%)
English Dem: 492 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 3049 (6.6%)
Sitting MP: Angela Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Not a safe seat, but again, the Labour majority is likely to increase.
7. Rother Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13281 (28.4%)
Labour: 19147 (40.9%)
Lib Dem: 8111 (17.3%)
BNP: 3606 (7.7%)
UKIP: 2613 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 5866 (12.5%)
Sitting MP: Kevin Barron (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
8. Rotherham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6279 (16.7%)
Labour: 16741 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 5994 (16%)
BNP: 3906 (10.4%)
UKIP: 2220 (5.9%)
Independent: 2366 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 10462 (27.9%)
BY ELECTION
Sarah Champion (Labour) 9866 46.3% (1.7%)
Jane Collins (UKIP) 4648 21.8% (15.9%)
Marlene Guest (BNP) 1804 8.5% (-1.9%)
Yvonne Ridley (Respect) 1778 8.3% (n/a)
Simon Wilson (Conservative) 1157 5.4% (-11.3%)
David Wildgoose (English Democrats) 703 3.3% (n/a)
Simon Copley (Independent) 582 2.7% (n/a)
Michael Beckett (Liberal Democrat) 451 2.1% (-13.9%)
Ralph Dyson (TUSC) 261 1.2% (n/a)
Paul Dickson (Independent) 51 0.2% (n/a)
Clint Bristow (no description) 29 0.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 5218 24.5%
Turnout 33.9% (-25.1%)
Sitting MP: Sarah Champion (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
UKIP think they have a chance here, but if they do, they will need to do much better than they did in the by-election. Unlikely.
9. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4468 (11.5%)
Labour: 21400 (55%)
Lib Dem: 7768 (20%)
BNP: 3026 (7.8%)
UKIP: 1596 (4.1%)
TUSC: 656 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 13632 (35%)
Sitting MP: David Blunkett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat., David Blunkett is standing down and will be replaced by Harry Harpham.
10. Sheffield Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4206 (10.1%)
Labour: 17138 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 16973 (40.9%)
BNP: 903 (2.2%)
Green: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
Independent: 40 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 165 (0.4%)
Sitting MP: Paul Blomfield (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The LibDems just failed to take this seat last time. Their only hope this time (and it’s not much of one) is for Labour to put all their resources into unseating Nick Clegg.
11. Sheffield Hallam
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12040 (23.5%)
Labour: 8228 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 27324 (53.4%)
Green: 919 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.3%)
English Dem: 586 (1.1%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 429 (0.8%)
Others: 164 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 15284 (29.9%)
Sitting MP: Nick Clegg (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
This used to be a Tory seat, but it would take a political earthquake for them to take it off Nick Clegg. Interestingly the Labour vote has started to rise, but not enough to cause the LibDems to panic. Yet. If the LibDems are obliterated, then Clegg will probably be obliterated too, but if they retain around half their seats, this ought to be one of them. Or will there be a Clegg effect, which means the LibDems will fare worse here than elsewhere.
12. Sheffield Heeley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7081 (17.3%)
Labour: 17409 (42.6%)
Lib Dem: 11602 (28.4%)
BNP: 2260 (5.5%)
Green: 989 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1530 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5807 (14.2%)
Sitting MP: Meg Munn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
13. Sheffield South East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7202 (17.4%)
Labour: 20169 (48.7%)
Lib Dem: 9664 (23.3%)
BNP: 2345 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1889 (4.6%)
Others: 139 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10505 (25.4%)
Sitting MP: Clive Betts (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
14. Wentworth & Dearne
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7396 (17.6%)
Labour: 21316 (50.6%)
Lib Dem: 6787 (16.1%)
BNP: 3189 (7.6%)
UKIP: 3418 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 13920 (33.1%)
Sitting MP: John Healey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
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