This is the fifth in a series of blogposts (scroll down for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 11
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 9, Labour 2
1. Broxbourne
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26844 (58.8%)
Labour: 8040 (17.6%)
Lib Dem: 6107 (13.4%)
BNP: 2159 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1890 (4.1%)
English Dem: 618 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 18804 (41.2%)
Sitting MP: Charles Walker (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe as houses.
2. Hemel Hempstead
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24721 (50%)
Labour: 10295 (20.8%)
Lib Dem: 11315 (22.9%)
BNP: 1615 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1254 (2.5%)
Independent: 271 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13406 (27.1%)
Sitting MP: Mike Penning (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
In 2010 this seat saw the biggest swing from Labour to the Tories in the country – more than 14% – pushing Conservative support above 50% and Labour into third place. Astonishing bearing in mind that between 1997 and 2005 this was a Labour seat. Mike Penning is as safe as safe can be.
3. Hertford & Stortford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29810 (53.8%)
Labour: 7620 (13.8%)
Lib Dem: 14373 (26%)
BNP: 1297 (2.3%)
UKIP: 1716 (3.1%)
Independent: 325 (0.6%)
Others: 236 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 15437 (27.9%)
Sitting MP: Mark Prisk (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Another Hertfordshire seat that is as as safe as it could be.
4. Hertsmere
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26476 (56%)
Labour: 8871 (18.8%)
Lib Dem: 8210 (17.4%)
BNP: 1397 (3%)
Green: 604 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1712 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 17605 (37.2%)
Sitting MP: James Clappison (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
A massive majority for James Clappison’s successor. This used to be the seat held by Cecil Parkinson, and the majorities haven’t changed much since his day.
5. Hitchin & Harpenden
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29869 (54.6%)
Labour: 7413 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 14598 (26.7%)
Green: 807 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1663 (3%)
Independent: 109 (0.2%)
Others: 248 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 15271 (27.9%)
Sitting MP: Peter Lilley (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Any reduction of the LibDem vote here is bound to give the Conservatives a bigger majority, assuming UKIP don’t take too much of the Tory vote.
6. North East Hertfordshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26995 (53.5%)
Labour: 8291 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 11801 (23.4%)
Green: 875 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2075 (4.1%)
Independent: 209 (0.4%)
Others: 179 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 15194 (30.1%)
Sitting MP: Oliver Heald (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
And possibly an increased majority here too,.
7. South West Hertfordshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 30773 (54.2%)
Labour: 6526 (11.5%)
Lib Dem: 15853 (27.9%)
BNP: 1302 (2.3%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.6%)
Independent: 846 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 14920 (26.3%)
Sitting MP: David Gauke (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
And so the story repeats itself.
8. St Albans
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21533 (40.8%)
Labour: 9288 (17.6%)
Lib Dem: 19228 (36.4%)
Green: 758 (1.4%)
UKIP: 2028 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 2305 (4.4%)
Sitting MP: Anne Main (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
The LibDems had high hopes of winning this seat in 2010 and the more optimistic of them still think they’re in with a chance this time. The LibDem candidate, Sandy Walkington, is not to be underestimated but they are surely bound to lose vote share, especially after some bad local election results.
9. Stevenage
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18491 (41.4%)
Labour: 14913 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 7432 (16.6%)
BNP: 1007 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2004 (4.5%)
English Dem: 366 (0.8%)
Independent: 80 (0.2%)
Others: 358 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 3578 (8%)
Sitting MP: Stephen McPartland (Con)
Prediction: Very narrow Labour gain
Another bellweather seat, held by the Conservatives from 1983 to 1997 and Labour from 1997 to 2010. Stephen McPartland will do well to hang on here if Ed Miliband comes within a sniff of Number 10. Could be one of the closest results of the night.
10. Watford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19291 (34.9%)
Labour: 14750 (26.7%)
Lib Dem: 17866 (32.4%)
BNP: 1217 (2.2%)
Green: 885 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1199 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 1425 (2.6%)
Sitting MP: Richard Harrington (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
A genuine three way marginal, this rates as one of the LibDems’ top targets. They have a strong popular local candidate in the mayor of Watford Dorothy Thornhill, but in reality the contest is likely to be between Labour and the sitting Tory MP. Rather like Stevenage, if Ed Miliband is doing well, this is the kind of seat he will expect to win.
11. Welwyn & Hatfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27894 (57%)
Labour: 10471 (21.4%)
Lib Dem: 8010 (16.4%)
Green: 796 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1643 (3.4%)
Independent: 158 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 17423 (35.6%)
Sitting MP: Grant Shapps (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Hard to believe that this was a Labour seat from 1997 to 2005 but Grant Shapps has built up a formidable campaigning machine which has reduced the Labour vote from 47% to 21%.
To see the complete list of predictions click HERE
