This is the fifty-first in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

North Yorkshire

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Labour 1

1. Harrogate & Knaresborough

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24305 (45.7%)
Labour: 3413 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 23266 (43.8%)
BNP: 1094 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1056 (2%)
MAJORITY: 1039 (2%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

A surprise gain for the Tories at the last election, Andrew Jones overturned a 10k majority. He will win again.

2. Richmond

2010 Result:
Conservative: 33541 (62.8%)
Labour: 8150 (15.3%)
Lib Dem: 10205 (19.1%)
Green: 1516 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 23336 (43.7%)

Sitting MP: William Hague (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

3. Scarborough & Whitby

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21108 (42.8%)
Labour: 12978 (26.3%)
Lib Dem: 11093 (22.5%)
BNP: 1445 (2.9%)
Green: 734 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1484 (3%)
Independent: 329 (0.7%)
Others: 111 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8130 (16.5%)

Sitting MP: Robert Goodwill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Not quite a safe seat, but anything other than a Tory hold here is somewhat unlikely.

4. Selby & Ainsty

2010 Result:
Conservative: 25562 (49.4%)
Labour: 13297 (25.7%)
Lib Dem: 9180 (17.7%)
BNP: 1377 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1635 (3.2%)
English Dem: 677 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12265 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: Nigel Adams (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

5. Skipton & Ripon

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27685 (50.6%)
Labour: 5498 (10%)
Lib Dem: 17735 (32.4%)
BNP: 1403 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1909 (3.5%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
Others: 179 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9950 (18.2%)

Sitting MP: Julian Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Safe seat.

6. Thirsk & Malton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 20167 (52.9%)
Labour: 5169 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 8886 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2502 (6.6%)
Liberal: 1418 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 11281 (29.6%)

Sitting MP: Anne McIntosh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Anne McIntosh has been deselected and is threatening to stand as an independent. She’ll no doubt be bought off with the promise of a seat in the Lords, but even if she did stand again, surely the Tory majority here is too large for the seat to be lost to another party.

7. York Central

2010 Result:
Conservative: 12122 (26.1%)
Labour: 18573 (40%)
Lib Dem: 11694 (25.2%)
BNP: 1171 (2.5%)
Green: 1669 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.4%)
Others: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6451 (13.9%)

Sitting MP: Sir Hugh Bayley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

This was briefly a Tory seat in the 1980s but Labour now benefits from a split opposition.

8. York Outer

2010 Result:
Conservative: 22912 (43%)
Labour: 9108 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 19224 (36.1%)
BNP: 956 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3688 (6.9%)

Sitting MP: Julian Sturdy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

Julian Sturdy can be confident of getting an increased majority here.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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