This is the sixty-third in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Scotland – Glasgow
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Lab 11
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 10, SNP 1
47. Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3374 (8.1%)
Labour: 27728 (66.6%)
Lib Dem: 3519 (8.5%)
SNP: 7014 (16.8%)
MAJORITY: 20714 (49.8%)
Sitting MP: Tom Clarke (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
48. Motherwell & Wishaw
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3660 (9.4%)
Labour: 23910 (61.1%)
Lib Dem: 3840 (9.8%)
SNP: 7104 (18.2%)
TUSC: 609 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 16806 (43%)
Sitting MP: Frank Roy
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat
49. Glasgow East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 1453 (4.5%)
Labour: 19797 (61.6%)
Lib Dem: 1617 (5%)
SNP: 7957 (24.7%)
BNP: 677 (2.1%)
UKIP: 209 (0.6%)
Others: 454 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 11840 (36.8%)
Sitting MP: Margaret Curren (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
50. Glasgow North East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 1569 (5.3%)
Labour: 20100 (68.3%)
Lib Dem: 2262 (7.7%)
SNP: 4158 (14.1%)
BNP: 798 (2.7%)
TUSC: 187 (0.6%)
Others: 335 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 15942 (54.2%)
Sitting MP: William Bain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
51. Glasgow North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2089 (7.1%)
Labour: 13181 (44.5%)
Lib Dem: 9283 (31.3%)
SNP: 3530 (11.9%)
BNP: 296 (1%)
Green: 947 (3.2%)
TUSC: 287 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3898 (13.2%)
Sitting MP: Ann McKechin (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
The result of this seat will depend in large part on what happens to the LibDem vote and whether the Labour vote crumbles to the SNP. I’m assuming it will. Ladbrokes have this as an SNP gain too.
52. Glasgow North West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3537 (9.9%)
Labour: 19233 (54.1%)
Lib Dem: 5622 (15.8%)
SNP: 5430 (15.3%)
BNP: 699 (2%)
Green: 882 (2.5%)
Others: 179 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13611 (38.3%)
Sitting MP: John Robertson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
53. Glasgow Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2158 (7.1%)
Labour: 15908 (52%)
Lib Dem: 5010 (16.4%)
SNP: 5357 (17.5%)
BNP: 616 (2%)
Green: 800 (2.6%)
UKIP: 246 (0.8%)
Others: 485 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 10551 (34.5%)
Sitting MP: Anas Sarwar (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
54. Glasgow South West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2084 (6.6%)
Labour: 19863 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 2870 (9%)
SNP: 5192 (16.3%)
BNP: 841 (2.6%)
TUSC: 931 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 14671 (46.2%)
Sitting MP: Ian Davidson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
55. East Renfrewshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15567 (30.4%)
Labour: 25987 (50.8%)
Lib Dem: 4720 (9.2%)
SNP: 4535 (8.9%)
UKIP: 372 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10420 (20.4%)
Sitting MP: Jim Murphy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Jim Murphy is standing down but that won’t affect this result.
56. Glasgow South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4592 (11.5%)
Labour: 20736 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 4739 (11.8%)
SNP: 8078 (20.1%)
BNP: 637 (1.6%)
Green: 961 (2.4%)
TUSC: 351 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 12658 (31.6%)
Sitting MP: Tom Harris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
57. Rutherglen & Hamilton W
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4540 (9.7%)
Labour: 28566 (60.8%)
Lib Dem: 5636 (12%)
SNP: 7564 (16.1%)
UKIP: 675 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 21002 (44.7%)
Sitting MP: Tom Greatrex (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
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