This is the sixty-sixth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

Greater Manchester A-E

Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 7, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 8

1. Altrincham & Sale West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 24176 (48.9%)
Labour: 11073 (22.4%)
Lib Dem: 12581 (25.5%)
UKIP: 1563 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 11595 (23.5%)

Sitting MP: Graham Brady (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold

2. Ashton under Lyne

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9510 (24.7%)
Labour: 18604 (48.4%)
Lib Dem: 5703 (14.8%)
BNP: 2929 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 9094 (23.7%)

Sitting MP: David Heyes (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

3. Blackley & Broughton

2010 Result:
Conservative: 6260 (18.3%)
Labour: 18563 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 4861 (14.2%)
BNP: 2469 (7.2%)
UKIP: 894 (2.6%)
Respect: 996 (2.9%)
Christian: 161 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 12303 (36%)

Sitting MP: Graham Stringer (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

4. Bolton North East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15786 (36.5%)
Labour: 19870 (45.9%)
Lib Dem: 5624 (13%)
UKIP: 1815 (4.2%)
Others: 182 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4084 (9.4%)

Sitting MP: David Crausby (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe-ish seat this time.

5. Bolton South East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10148 (25.6%)
Labour: 18782 (47.4%)
Lib Dem: 6289 (15.9%)
BNP: 2012 (5.1%)
Green: 614 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.9%)
Others: 195 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 8634 (21.8%)

Sitting MP: Yasmin Qureshi (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

6. Bolton West

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18235 (38.3%)
Labour: 18327 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 8177 (17.2%)
Green: 545 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1901 (4%)
Independent: 254 (0.5%)
Others: 137 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 92 (0.2%)

Sitting MP: Julie Hilling (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Very close last time, and I did wonder if this might be a seat where UKIP might take votes off Labour. However, if the Ashcroft poll for Bolton West is right, UKIP are taking far more votes from the LibDems and Tories.

7. Bury North

2010 Result:
Conservative: 18070 (40.2%)
Labour: 15827 (35.2%)
Lib Dem: 7645 (17%)
BNP: 1825 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1282 (2.9%)
Independent: 181 (0.4%)
Others: 131 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2243 (5%)

Sitting MP: David Nuttall (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain

This one could go either way. David Nuttall’s strong Eurosceptism may mean that the UKIP vote here is depressed, but will that be enough to save him?

8. Bury South

2010 Result:
Conservative: 16216 (33.6%)
Labour: 19508 (40.4%)
Lib Dem: 8796 (18.2%)
BNP: 1743 (3.6%)
Green: 493 (1%)
UKIP: 1017 (2.1%)
English Dem: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 3292 (6.8%)

Sitting MP: Ivan Lewis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Ivan Lewis should be safe here.

9. Cheadle

2010 Result:
Conservative: 21445 (40.8%)
Labour: 4920 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 24717 (47.1%)
UKIP: 1430 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 3272 (6.2%)

Sitting MP: Mark Hunter (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain

Apart from a narrow majority in 1997 of 33, the LibDems have had a majority of three or four thousand in this seat ever since. I had predicted the LibDems to hold this but I now think it is increasingly unlikely. The Tory vote share here in the last four elections has been 44, 42, 40, 41. If you add together the Labour and LibDem vote share in the last four elections you get 54, 56, 58, 56. It seems highly likely that there will be a shift from the LibDems to Labour here, thus letting the Tory candidate through the middle.

10. Denton & Reddish

2010 Result:
Conservative: 9360 (24.9%)
Labour: 19191 (51%)
Lib Dem: 6727 (17.9%)
UKIP: 2060 (5.5%)
Independent: 297 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 9831 (26.1%)

Sitting MP: Andrew Gwynne (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold

Safe seat.

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

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