This is the sixty-sixth in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
West Midlands T-Z
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Lab 7, Con 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 8
21. Walsall North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12395 (34.3%)
Labour: 13385 (37%)
Lib Dem: 4754 (13.1%)
BNP: 2930 (8.1%)
UKIP: 1737 (4.8%)
Christian: 144 (0.4%)
Others: 842 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 990 (2.7%)
Sitting MP: David Winnick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
I do wonder if this is one of those seats where UKIP may eat into the Labour vote more than the Tory vote. If they do, David Winnick could be in trouble.
22. Walsall South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14456 (35.4%)
Labour: 16211 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 5880 (14.4%)
UKIP: 3449 (8.4%)
Christian: 482 (1.2%)
Others: 404 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1755 (4.3%)
Sitting MP: Valerie Vaz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Difficult to imagine this seat going Tory.
23. Warley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9484 (24.8%)
Labour: 20240 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 5929 (15.5%)
UKIP: 2617 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 10756 (28.1%
Sitting MP: John Spellar (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
24. West Bromwich East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10961 (28.9%)
Labour: 17657 (46.5%)
Lib Dem: 4993 (13.2%)
BNP: 2205 (5.8%)
UKIP: 984 (2.6%)
English Dem: 1150 (3%)
MAJORITY: 6696 (17.6%)
Sitting MP: Tom Watson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
25. West Bromwich West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10612 (29.3%)
Labour: 16263 (45%)
Lib Dem: 4336 (12%)
BNP: 3394 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1566 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 5651 (15.6%)
Sitting MP: Adrian Bailey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe-ish seat.
26. Wolverhampton North East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11964 (34.3%)
Labour: 14448 (41.4%)
Lib Dem: 4711 (13.5%)
BNP: 2296 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.3%)
Others: 337 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2484 (7.1%)
Sitting MP: Emma Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Used to be a Tory seat and if there’s a Tory majority it could be again. But only then.
27. Wolverhampton South East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9912 (28.6%)
Labour: 16505 (47.6%)
Lib Dem: 5277 (15.2%)
UKIP: 2675 (7.7%)
Independent: 338 (1%)
MAJORITY: 6593 (19%)
Sitting MP: Pat McFadden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat
28. Wolverhampton South West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16344 (40.7%)
Labour: 15653 (39%)
Lib Dem: 6430 (16%)
UKIP: 1487 (3.7%)
Others: 246 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 691 (1.7%)
Sitting MP: Paul Uppal (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
The former Labour MP for the area Rob Marris is standing again. He ought to be a dead cert retread.
If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE
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