This is the seventy-third in a series of blogposts (scroll to the bottom of the article for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.

I admit to knowing very little about Northern Irish politics so I have by and large kept each seat to a hold for the party that won it in 2010. I will revise these predictions depending on information received. There seems to be very little polling information or constituency information on the net. So do please leave comments!

Northern Ireland (Part 2)

Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, Independent 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: DUP 4, Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, Independent 1

10. Mid Ulster

Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin) 21,239 (52.0%, +4.4%)
Ian McCrea (DUP) 5,876 (14.4%, -9.1%)
Tony Quinn (SDLP) 5,826 (14.3%, -3.1%)
Sandra Overend (UCUNF) 4,509 (11.0%, +0.3%)
Walter Millar (TUV) 2,995 (7.3%)
Ian Butler (Alliance) 397 1.0%
Majority: 15,363

BY-ELECTION
Francie Molloy (SF) 17,462 (46.9%, -5.1%)
Nigel Lutton (Independent) 12,781 (34.4%)
Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 6,478 (17.4%, +3.1%)
Eric Bullick (Alliance) 487 (1.3%, +0.3%)
Majority: 4,681

Sitting MP: Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

11. Newry & Armagh

Conor Murphy (Sinn Féin) 18,857 (42.0%, +0.6%)
Dominic Bradley (SDLP) 10,526 (23.4%, -1.8%)
Danny Kennedy (UCUNF) 8,558 (19.1%, +5.2)
William Irwin (DUP) 5,764 (12.8%, -5.6%)
William Frazer (Independent) 656 (1.5%)
Andrew Muir (Alliance) 545 (1.2%)
Majority: 8,331

Sitting MP: Conor Murphy (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

12. North Antrim

Ian Paisley [jr] (DUP) 19,672 (46.4%, -10.2%)
Jim Allister (TUV) 7,114 (16.8%)
Daithi McKay (Sinn Féin) 5,265 (12.4%, -1.8%)
Irwin Armstrong (UCUNF) 4,634 (10.9%, -4.1%)
Declan O’Loan (SDLP) 3,738 (8.8%, -2.2%)
Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 1,368 (3.2%, +0.1%)
Lyle Cubitt (Independent) 606 (1.4%)
Majority: 12,558

Sitting MP: Ian Paisley Jnr (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

13. North Down

*Sylvia Hermon (Independent) 21,181 (63.3%)
Ian Parsley (UCUNF) 6,817 (20.4%, -32.5%)
@Stephen Farry (Alliance) 1,876 (5.6%, -2.0%)
Mary Kilpatrick (TUV) 1,634 (4.9%)
Steven Agnew (Green) 1,043 (3.1%)
Liam Logan (SDLP) 680 (2.0%, -1.1%)
Vincent Parker (Sinn Féin) 250 (0.8%, +0.2%)
Majority: 14,364

Sitting MP: Lady Sylvia Hermon (Ind)
Prediction: Independent hold

14. South Antrim

@William McCrea (DUP) 11,536 (33.9%, -6.4%)
Reg Empey (UCUNF) 10,353 (30.4, +0.8%)
@Mitchel McLaughlin (Sinn Féin) 4,729 (13.9%, +3.2%)
Michelle Byrne (SDLP) 2,955 (8.7% -2.5%)
Alan Lawther (Alliance) 2,607 (7.7%, -0.6%)
Melwyn Lucas (TUV) 1,829 (5.4%)
Majority: 1,183

Sitting MP: William McCrea (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

15. South Down

Margaret Ritchie (SDLP) 20,648 (48.5%, +1.7%)
Caitriona Ruane (Sinn Féin) 12,236 (28.7%, +1.7%)
Jim Wells (DUP) 3,645 (8.6%, -7.5%)
John McCallister (UCUNF) 3,093 (7.3% -1.5%)
Ivor McConnell (TUV) 1,506 (3.5%)
Cadogan Enright (Green) 901 (2.1%)
David Griffin (Alliance) 560 (1.3%, ±0%)
Majority: 8,412

Sitting MP: Margaret Ritchie (SDLP)
Prediction: SDLP hold

16. Strangford

Jim Shannon (DUP) 14,926 (45.9%, -4.9%)
Mike Nesbitt (UCUNF) 9,050 (27.8%,+2.6%)*
Deborah Girvan (Alliance) 2,828 (8.7%, +0.3%)
Claire Hanna (SDLP) 2,164 (6.7%, -1.5%)
Terry Williams (TUV) 1,814 (5.6%)
Michael Coogan (Sinn Féin) 1,161 (3.6%, -0.1%)
Barbara Haig (Green) 562 (1.7%)
Majority: 5,876

Sitting MP: Jim Shannon (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

17. Upper Bann

David Simpson (DUP) 14,000 (33.8%, -3.8%)
Harry Hamilton (UCUNF) 10,639 (25.7%, +0.2%)
John O’Dowd (Sinn Féin) 10,237 (24.7%, +3.7%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,276 (12.7%, -0.2%)
Brendan Heading (Alliance) 1,231 (3.0%, +0.8%)
Majority: 3,361

Sitting MP: David Simpson (DUP)
Prediction: DUP hold

18. West Tyrone

@Pat Doherty (Sinn Féin) 18,050 (48.4%, +9.5%)
@Thomas Buchanan (DUP) 7,365 (19.8%, +2.0%)
Ross Hussey (UCUNF) 5,281 (14.2%, +7.3%)
Joe Byrne (SDLP) 5,212 (14.0%, +4.9%)
Michael Bower (Alliance) 859 (2.3%)
Ciaran McClean (Independent) 508 (1.4%)
Majority: 10,685

Sitting MP: Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein)
Prediction: Sinn Fein hold

If you’d like to see the rest of my seat by seat predictions, click HERE

OUT NOW! The Politicos Guide to the General Election (by Iain Dale, Greg Callus, Robert Waller & Daniel Hamilton) £15.99 from Politicos.co.uk or £16.58 from Amazon. Also available as an eBook from Politicos.co.uk at £9.99 and Amazon at £10.19