Over the last two weeks I have been trying to predict the results of the European Elections which take place in the UK on May 22, with the results being announced late in the evening of Sunday 25 May. I will be hosting a European Elections Special Programme on LBC from 9pm that evening. Let’s now turn to Northern Ireland, where 3 seats are up for grabs. Northern Ireland is the only UK constituency to elect MEPs by the Single Transferrable Vote system, rather than D’Hondt.
2009
UUP/Con 1
DUP 1
Sinn Fein 1
In 2004 the result was identical. In 1999 Sinn Fein lost out to the SDLP.
My prediction for this year is this…
2014
Sinn Fein 1
DUP 1
SDLP 1
Sinn Fein and the DUP are almost guaranteed to win one seat each. The question is whether the SDLP or the UUP will win the remaining seat. I don’t know enough about Northern Ireland politics to make a confident prediction, and I suspect a lot will depend on whether the nationalist community turns out in far greater numbers than their unionist counterparts.
Predicted Winning Candidates
Sinn Fein – Martina Anderson
DUP – Diane Dodds
SDLP – Alex Attwood
OTHER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS
East Anglia
South East
London
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands
North West
North East
Scotland
Yorkshire & Humber
