Over the next three weeks I will be trying to predict the results of the European Elections which take place in the UK on May 22, with the results being announced late in the evening of Sunday 25 May. I will be hosting a European Elections Special Programme on LBC from 9pm that evening. Let’s now turn to Wales, where 4 seats are up for grabs.
2009
Lab 1
Con 1
Plaid Cymru 1
UKIP 1
In 2004 the result Labour had 2, the Conservatives 1 and Plaid 1. In 1999, when there were 5 seats for Wales, Labour had 2, Plaid 2 and the Tories 1.
My prediction for this year is this…
2014
Lab 1
Plaid 1
Con 1
UKIP 1
This would be identical to the result in 2009. The LibDems are unlikely to eclipse UKIP. The Tories topped the poll last time with 21%. They won’t do that this time, but it is difficult to see Labour getting a high enough share of the vote to grab a second seat. That’s what happens when you have a ridiculous electoral system like this one. Wales might as well not voting because it would take an earthquake for any party now to get a second seat. In the last three Euro elections Labour’s vote share has gone from 32% in 1999 to 20% last time.
Predicted Winning Candidates
Conservative Party – Kay Swinburne
Plaid Cymru – Jill Evans
Labour Party – Derek Vaughan
UKIP – Nathan Gill
OTHER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS
East Anglia
South East
London
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands
North West
North East
Scotland
Yorkshire & Humber
Northern Ireland
