Listen to LBC’s European Election Night results programme on Sunday 25 May from 9pm until 3am with Iain Dale & Duncan Barkes
Over the last few weeks I have been predicting the results of the European Elections in all the regions of the United Kingdom. You can see the individual regional predictions by clicking on the links below…
East Anglia
South East
London
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands
North West
North East
Scotland
Yorkshire & Humber
Northern Ireland
Wales
In some ways this is a mug’s game, because the polls seem all over the place and no one really knows what the decline of the LibDems and the rise of UKIP will mean for the two main parties. But those of us who make a living out of commenting on politics and who are members of the so-called ‘Puniterati’ ought to be held accountable for what we say and what we predict. There won’t be any promises to run through Brussels naked if I get any of this wrong (aren’t I a killjoy?) but I hope it proves useful to those of you who enjoy elections and psephology as much as I do. Feel free to disagree with my conclusions in the comments, and make your own predictions.
Anyway, I have now drawn all the regional predictions together and made some predictions related to the performances of all the parties in the UK. I’ve included how they fared in terms of seats and vote share at the last two European Elections in 2004 and 2009
CONSERVATIVE PARTY
Seats in 2004: 27
Seats in 2009: 25
Predicted Seats in 2014: 20
Predicted Seats Range: 16-21
Vote Share in 2004: 26.7%
Vote Share in 2009: 27.9%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 23%
Good result: Anything above 25% or above 20 seats
Bad result: Coming a bad third, under 20% of the vote, anything under 20 seats
Panic time: Under 18% of the vote or 15 seats
LABOUR PARTY
Seats in 2004: 19
Seats in 2009: 13
Predicted Seats in 2014: 18
Predicted Seats Range: 16-21
Vote Share in 2004: 22.6%
Vote Share in 2009: 15.8%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 24%
Good result: Beating UKIP into first place on poll share or seats
Bad result: Anything below 20 seats or getting under 25% of the vote
Panic time: Coming third. Period.
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
Seats in 2004: 12
Seats in 2009: 11
Predicted Seats in 2014: 1
Predicted Seats Range: 0-4
Vote Share in 2004: 14.9%
Vote Share in 2009: 13.8%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 9%
Good result: Winning more than 4 seats, or getting above 12% of the vote
Bad result: Winning fewer than 4 seats or getting 10% of the vote or under
Panic time: Winning no seats or coming fifth behind the Greens
UKIP
Seats in 2004: 12
Seats in 2009: 13
Predicted Seats in 2014: 24
Predicted Seats Range: 20-26
Vote Share in 2004: 16.1%
Vote Share in 2009: 16.6%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 28%
Good result: Coming first in vote share and seats won
Bad result: Coming second, or winning fewer than 20 seats
Panic time: Not going to happen.
GREEN PARTY
Seats in 2004: 2
Seats in 2009: 2
Predicted Seats in 2014: 3
Predicted Seats Range: 0-5
Vote Share in 2004: 6.3%
Vote Share in 2009: 8.1%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 10%
Good result: Beating the Liberal Democrats to come fourth
Bad result: Failing to win more than two seats
Panic time: Losing seats
BRITISH NATIONAL PARTY
Seats in 2004: 0
Seats in 2009: 2
Predicted Seats in 2014: 0
Predicted Seats Range: 0-0
Vote Share in 2004: 4.9%
Vote Share in 2009: 6.3%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 3%
Good result: Not gonna happen
Bad result: Losing both seats
Panic time: Getting under 3% of the vote
SNP
Seats in 2004: 2
Seats in 2009: 2
Predicted Seats in 2014: 3
Predicted Seats Range: 2-3
Vote Share in 2004: 1.4%
Vote Share in 2009: 2.0%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 2.2%
Good result: Winning an extra seat
Bad result: Not winning an extra seat
Panic time: Losing a seat
PLAID CYMRU
Seats in 2004: 1
Seats in 2009: 1
Predicted Seats in 2014: 1
Predicted Seats Range: 1-1
Vote Share in 2004: 1.0%
Vote Share in 2009: 0.8%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 0.8%
Good result: Increasing vote share
Bad result: Losing vote share
Panic time: Losing their seat
SINN FEIN
Seats in 2004: 1
Seats in 2009: 1
Predicted Seats in 2014: 1
Predicted Seats Range: 1-1
Vote Share in 2004: 26.3
Vote Share in 2009: 25.8%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 27%
Good result: Increasing vote share
Bad result: Losing vote share
Panic time: Losing their seat
DUP
Seats in 2004: 1
Seats in 2009: 1
Predicted Seats in 2014: 1
Predicted Seats Range: 1-1
Vote Share in 2004: 31.9
Vote Share in 2009: 18.1%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 20%
Good result: Increasing vote share
Bad result: Losing vote share
Panic time: Losing their seat to the UUP
UUP
Seats in 2004: 1
Seats in 2009: 1
Predicted Seats in 2014: 0
Predicted Seats Range: 0-1
Vote Share in 2004: 16.6%
Vote Share in 2009: 17.0%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 15%
Good result: Retaining their seat
Bad result: Losing their seat
Panic time: Ditto
SDLP
Seats in 2004: 0
Seats in 2009: 0
Predicted Seats in 2014: 1
Predicted Seats Range: 0-1
Vote Share in 2004: 15.9%
Vote Share in 2009: 16.1%
Predicted Vote Share in 2014: 18%
Good result: Winning a seat for the first time since 1999
Bad result: Not doing so
Panic time: Not doing so and losing vote share
It’s also interesting to look at turnouts in the last few European Elections.
1979 32.35%
1984 32.57%
1989 36.37%
1994 36.43%
1999 24.00%
2004 38.52%
2009 34.70%
This could, and I emphasise the word ‘could’, be the first European Election in which turnout exceeds 40%. The odds on the happening are probably less than 50-50, but if it happens I can only think it means that UKIP will have a very good night indeed. Bizarrely it could also mean that the result isn’t quite so catastrophic for the LibDems if they mobilise all the pro-European vote to turn out for them.
Anyway, I hope you will join me and Duncan Barkes on LBC from 9pm next Sunday night. We’ll have reporters at most of the important counts, as well as getting all the reaction across Europe and from politicians of all parties. But we also want you to join in and feed in information to us during the programme. So if you’re at a count, or get any sort of information you think might be useful to us there are several ways to get in touch…
Phone 0845 60 60 973
Text 84850
Email iain@lbc.co.uk
Twitter @LBC or @iaindale
For those of you who haven’t discovered the delights of LBC yet, you can hear us all over the world through the live stream on our website at www.lbc.co.uk. You can listen on DAB Digital Radio across the United Kingdom. We have an iPhone, iPad and Android app. In London we’re on 97.3FM. You can also listen to us via your TV on Sky Channel 0112, Freesat Channel 734 or Virgin Media 973. So no excuses!
